The Preview | Carlton V Gold Coast | AFL Round 23
Written By Luke Cornell
The home stretch.
As the Carlton faithful still try to wake themselves from the dream that is the 2023 season, we draw our attention to these important 2 weeks that will shape the matchups come September.
September, yeah.
To kick us off, the Blues play the Suns up at Metricon Stadium; as we reflect on both teams form and attitude coming into the home stretch of the season.
Adored by many, read by few, here’s the round 23 preview.
Unlucky.
It really was a season of promise for the Suns.
Halfway through the season, with the likes of Touk Miller and Ben King waiting on the sidelines, the Suns seemed to have finally gelled into a September competitor we haven’t seen under then coach Stewie Dew.
Sitting 11th on the ladder with an equal W/L record to the likes of Geelong, Adelaide and Sydney, there was a formula that proved sustainable against the top teams in the league.
By round 14, the Suns had ranked 2nd in Kicks, Clearances and Hitouts per game; as well as ranking 1st and 2nd in Contested Possessions and Marks respectively.
While a majority of these rankings came off the back of some individual brilliance by Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell, and Captain Jarrod Witts, it was hard to look past the makeup of this side that had won its last two against the Bulldogs and the Crows.
Jack Lukocious even averaged 3.5 goals a game in the five weeks leading up to that fateful game against the Blues.
Alas, it wasn’t meant to be post round 14.
Losing by 59 points to the Blues at the G, the Suns slipped below 13th, eventually losing to Collingwood at home by 78 points.
Coach Stewie Dew was sacked the following week.
And since then, the Suns rank 14th in points, 15th in i50s, and 18th in the competition for effective disposals.
As hinted in our last preview, the Suns proved to be their own worst enemy, climbing to 5th in the AFL for clangers per game on the back off a severe lack of handball chains and uncontested possession (where the Suns rank 17th in both categories).
However, arriving back on their home turf having found considerable form with wins against the Lions and the Saints, the Suns might find a bit of mojo heading into this week with little to play for this late in the season.
Build.
There’s always two stories, can one be a fairytale?
What this squad has accomplished is nothing short of remarkable, the win against Melbourne last week felt like the penultimate test for this team, and boy was it glorious.
There will be time for a love letter, but for now, there’s some big topics at hand.
Harry Mckay is all but locked in to make his return to the senior side this week, and we should thank our lucky stars.
Contrary to the naysayers, statistically, if Mckay was playing in the last 3 weeks alone, he would’ve kicked 15 goals.
It’s no secret that the most poignant transformation in the side during this run is our efficiency and work i50.
Not only do the Blues rank 2nd in i50s and 1st in efficiency i50, they have soared up the contested mark rankings to 1st in the competition.
i50 however, contested marking stoops to 15th in the league.
While there should be an emphasis on the work of Cunningham, Motlop, Martin and Fogarty (who misses this week due to injury), the onus is on our forwards, while playing on a direct opponent, to convert from set shot with kind of entry our mids having been dishing the last few weeks.
And while most of our conversion has been a product of our work at ground-level, the spacing of our forward half may alleviate the pressure of intercept defenders and one-on-one matchups when going i50.
Like all things, it needs to be seen to be believed, but the scrutiny is laughable.
H is the x-factor heading into his final run.
Predictions.
The best scenario at the end of this game…is that we get to keep living in 2023.
In all seriousness, time to put the hammer down on this dysfunctional side.
Prove the system is sustainable on the run (as if they haven’t already)…then there’ll be a parade at Marvel next week.
