The Preview | Carlton V Sydney | AFL Elimination Final
Written By Luke Cornell
…it’s happening.
On the bookend of a historic 2023 season, the Carlton Football Club will return to the MCG this week against the Sydney Swans…in a drastic move by the AFL to play official games after the initial home and away season.
And we couldn’t be more bloody excited.
Bounce that ball, it’s the 1st Elimination Final Preview…wow.
This time…there will be blood(s).
Sydney have peaked at a better time than nought.
Winning 6 of their last 7 to cap off the 2023 season, the swans seem primed to make it to the last weekend of September from outside the top 4.
It’s no sly feat, having shuffled their matchday squad on numerous occassions, due to a lack of key position depth and running injuries across the board (including the likelihood of forward, Tom Papley, missing this week), Sydney just keep finding another gear when the tides are against them.
And the pain still lingers. In one of the lowest points of Carlton’s 2023 campagin, the Swans seemed to humiliate the Blues in all facets; in what was a stark reminder of their resilliance to negate the impact of their opposing system.
Whilst many close games have pryed open the Swan’s tactics, Sydney haven’t missed a beat for a majority of the season.
In 2023, they rank 2nd league wide in tackles per game, as well as ranking top 5 in intercepts and Rebound 50s per game; hinting at a reliance on outside dominance.
These rankings are matched by All Australians Errol Gulden and Nick Blakey, who contribute heavily to a run-and-carry brand of football that murders teams on turnover both on the flanks and ends of the ground.
In reality, however, run-and-carry can only get you so far.
At the centre bounce, the Swans have the talent and engine in players like Chad Warner and Luke Parker, but Sydney’s inability to win the ball at the restart is almost jarring.
The Swans rank an abysmal 17th in clearance differential for 2023, as well as struggling to score from stoppages around the ground; sitting at 14th in the league.
Essentially playing against one of the more well rounded midfields in the Blues on Friday night, Sydney’s ability to get first hands on the ball may prove decicive.
However, it is September.
And come September time, the Swans boast 28 players with finals experience on their list compared to just eight for the Blues, with Sydney co-captain Luke Parker having played more finals games (22) than the entire Carlton side he'll face on Friday night.
The Swans have the pieces and the attitude, but do they have the gile to stop what’s coming for them?
Impact.
Let’s get the formalities out of the way.
The Blues looked disinterested compared to the fire that GWS played in essentially a do-or-die game for their season in round 24, with little to no adjustments being seen on field in a defensive meltdown across the field.
The focus was always drawn to the following match, cited by a 9-week low in tackles and high in opponent i50s.
Yet, in all honesty (respectfully) did anyone really forget what this side was capable of ?
It’s an otherwordly build up to any finals match in recent memory, perhaps sprinkled with bias, but you know who you’re reading from.
The Captain, along with a plethora of Carlton elites and veterans alike will be playing their first ever AFL Final come Friday.
The talk surrounding this build up internally has been very calm and reasurring however, with the retrospective that this side has played in many finals like scenarios throughout this 10 week stretch.
Yet, there are still many qualms lurking before the bounce.
Once again, selection proves to be a migraine for the squad in more ways than one.
Whilst contemplating the effectiveness of the 22 that took the field last week, there is the realisation that every game from now onwards could spell the end of this remarkable season.
It’s no mystery as to whose pressence we missed on gameday. Patrick Cripp’s influence in and around the centre stoppages was more than apparent, as well as the advantage that Marc Pittonet adds to each restart in the centre square, or at the very least, a second ruckman other than Harry McKay.
It’s all pivitol to the outcome, especially to this Swan’s outfit. The Blues seem to be leaps and bounds above the Swans in their centre dominance, ranking 1st in scores from stoppages and 3rd for scores from centre bounce and clearance differential. Yet, it’s never a certaintity.
There’s every likely scenario that on of Will Hayward or Issac Heeney follows the likes of a Crippa, Cerra, or Walsh to negate our pressence in the middle; leading to a result similar to that of round 11.
While it’s crucial that we keep the influence in the middle of the ground, the likelyhood of a scrambled contest is one this group welcomes with open arms.
It’s been the cornerstone of this group…the contest…galvanising our entire playing list week-in-week-out.
Why shy away at this moment? Why stand still in the wake of the unknown, instead of quenching for the thirst for opportunity.
Why not us, why not now?
Why wait any longer.
Predictions
It’ll never set in until that ball is bounced.
The Carlton Football Club are playing finals football.
And what a remarkable journey we have been through together, to even get to this one checkpoint.
Their are countless unpredictable scenarios come Friday night, but we can only be certain that this game will not only change our perception of this beautiful club, but the game itself.
There is a will to support and converse about what unites us all, even when there’s no light or pulse, even when at times where it seems like everlasting agony.
But under September lights, Carlton’s heart is beating.
I hope this community, this platform, and these previews, have given you a sense of pride of being part of the Carlton identity, or even the AFL identity.
But for now, it’s time to paint the MCG navy Blue.
It’s finals time…and we’re here to impact.
