The Preview | Carlton V Melbourne | AFL Round 22
Written by Luke Cornell
Oh baby.
In a sight to behold for both the Carlton faithful and the wider AFL community, Carlton have tapped into some real form and belief having won SEVEN games in a row for the first time since 2000.
Striking uncanny similarities to their matchup in Round 22 of 2022, the Blues face the Demons win what many consider a ‘win-and-in’ scenario.
Another scintillating test for this remarkable Carlton side…in our first home game against Melbourne in three years mind you @afl.
Every heart beats true, for the round 22 preview.
A Red Brick Wall.
It would be remiss of me not to mention that in my season preview for 2023, I had tipped Melbourne to win this year’s flag.
I’ve been waiting anxiously for the next time I got to talk about this team.
While their season has been riddled with instability, inconsistency and an incoherent understanding of their brand of football at times, the Demons had the luxury from the get-go to play with risk and reward; whilst other teams “ahead” of them seize the opportunity to dominate in the first half of the season.
Unlike the Blues, it doesn’t take much for Melbourne to flick the switch when the time arises, or when winter turns to spring.
It’s a credit to Simon Goodwin’s management of his gameplan and list all season long, and a testament to the level of control the Dees possess on the field.
The Dees rank 3rd in points per game, being able to punish teams off the back of their defensive brilliance; ranking 1st in both turnovers for and Intercepts.
But how will the Dees really execute come Saturday night? Two glaring stats tease the danger.
Melbourne currently rank 1st in Contested Possesions and i50s, highlighted by a bonafide superstar…and his returning idol.
Christian Petracca is the complete AFL midfielder for the modern game. His ground ball gets are something to behold, but his work in the forward half of the field is something we’ve never seen since Dustin Martin’s 2017 campaign.
Ranking 3rd for i50s in the league, there seems to be a paddock of space for him as he lines up his kick, directly from the centre clearance. With a plethora of options up forward, any kick from the top of the 50 will spell turmoil for Carlton’s back six.
However, Michael Voss’ attention this week turns a few paces back…to the centre bounce and his beloved contest.
Clayton Oliver returns to the Dees in a similar fashion to Futurama. As close to the original as you’ll get, but a headache all the same.
While Jack Viney has taken a lot of the limelight this season within and without Oliver’s absence, there’s a genuine freakishness to Clarry’s game.
Currently holding a 52 GAME streak of 5+ clearances a game, his contest work combined with an inform Melbourne midfield spells doom for any team they face this season.
And why shouldn’t it? There are many teams you can completely dismantle through the middle of the ground, but only few can execute so well that they can only be stemmed.
Selection this week spells out this same mantra, with fringe ruckman Brodie Grundy returning to the senior side, combining with the best player in the competition in Max Gawn.
(fight me).
In all honesty, the Dee’s approach to the game is the blueprint for this Carlton side; with an emphasis on stemming the flow and spread throughout the field while being able to put the foot down against any opposition.
But is it truly time for this Carlton side dismantle the mantle?
The Standard vs The Standard
What is this feeling?
It’s hard to comprehend what this side has accomplished in the space of just 2 months of football.
In the space of a regular season, and not even a spot in finals, this side has rejuvenated next to all portions of the club.
So when the opportunity arises to play arguably the best team in the league (currently), off the back of ridiculous form, in circumstances as unique this week, you’d be surprised at the varying levels of calm and and anxiety coming into this week.
Yet, one thing remains the same, a belief in this squad.
We’ve covered extensively over the last couple of weeks the key statistics and signals sparking this run, and hopefully the AFL media is bombarding your socials with some of these indicators.
Last weeks game however proved that execution, no matter how much you can break it down in stats, is key to this side performing at the highest level it can. Especially when undermanned.
No matter how much we believe in this team, however, what actual threat do the Blues pose to the Demons this week?
The contest seems to be a reoccurring theme in the past weeks alone. An area of the ground seemingly unpredictable, yet holding so much when won.
With both teams proving dangerous around all areas of the ground, is the game won at each restart or when the ball is in dispute?
Even from a Blues fan perspective, the shuffling of the side in the middle of the ground has obviously harmed our ability to execute effectively, which could easily prove costly in the dying embers of the match.
And even until last week, the true hole McGovern has left in the back half wasn’t fully realised until St Kilda started to convert efficiently when inside 50.
My question this week, purely off the back of last week’s performance and an uncontrollable run of injuries, is how much we can stamp our authority on a game for four quarters when most teams in our situation would be on the back foot?
Nevertheless, it all stems from a belief in our system and a belief in a ‘team’ brand of football…next man up.
Predictions.
Big week for the pessimists out there, I feel you.
When appointed in 2021, Micheal Voss shared some words to the Carlton faithful next to the likes of President Luke Sayers and CEO Brian Cook.
“We’re not here to be a good football team, we’re here to be the best…there’s respect from the competition that we need to earn back, we want to be a respected football team.”
It was as scintillating then as it is now, there’s no easy escape route for Carlton fans come gameday. No matter how big the free hit, or how little the outcome means for the rest of the competition, that need for pure respect from the AFL community still lingers.
There’s receipts that the players and fans still hold onto, me personally I don’t want to see Kozzie Pickett shoving a man Sam Docherty to the ground again.
But it all comes back to trying to earn that staple as a respected side that wins games without excuse for the opposition.
And what a ripe opportunity once again…let’s go get some respect.
