The Wrap Up | R9 V Melbourne
Written by Ari Stamatakos
Each week, Blue Abroad’s “The Wrap Up” takes a different perspective on Carlton’s post-match review. “The Wrap Up” provides insights and stats supporting the key trends, moments and patterns of the game that held the most influence over the final result. This is your Round 9 Wrap Up following a disappointing loss against Melbourne
MATCH SUMMARY:
3rd week in a row the Blues face Melbourne opposition at 3:20pm on a Sunday afternoon and each week the task gets harder. The undefeated Dee’s were the hurdle the Blues were attempting to leap over in their search for their 4th win of the year and to get their season back on track. The returning Nic Newman from injury and the 150th game of Levi Casboult were occasions which would be beautifully capped off with a win.
A cold and gloomy day got even gloomier as the worst possible start could've happened for the Blues. David Cuningham goes up for a contest and lands clutching his knee, all Carlton fans' hearts skipped a beat as he stays down motionless and in agony. The worst is feared as a while passes before he is able to get up and hobble down the race and into the rooms. How unfortunate, as the moment he is finding form and being used in the proper position after years of inconsistency he goes down in the most heartbreaking circumstances. His day done, and potentially his season too.
In the meantime, the Dee’s get the first of the afternoon as Bayley Fritsch (3 goals, 5 score involvements, 3 marks) finds himself with space inside 50 and cracks the first major of the game. The Blues respond in kind however as Matt Owies (1 goal, 7 tackles, 4 tackles 20 pressure acts) continues his good form as he sneaks out the back of a pack and strolls into an empty goal square to get the Blues first goal. Not long after Eddie Betts (1 goal, 5 score involvements, 4 tackles) does what Eddie Betts does as he snatches the ball from the defender, opens up the angle and gets the Blues second. A period elapses and the injury worries for Blues go from bad to worse as Harry McKay (3 goals, 4 marks) comes off second best from a contest and goes down to the rooms holding his right shoulder, Carlton’s depth is really being tested. Carlton gets a chance to extend the lead through Marc Pittonet (1 goal, 23 hitouts, 6 one percenters) who’s mark was infringed and slots his first from 20m out, Carlton by 10. However, just like that the Blues find themselves behind again as 2 quick Melbourne goals in a row are capped off by Tom McDonald (3 goal, 18 disposals, 10 score involvements) who gave the Dee’s a 7 point lead after the quarter time siren.
The second term started the best for the home side as Fritch’s mark was impeded, so he was taken 20 out, slight angle, and just like Pitto he made no mistake. The milestone man gets his first as Levi Casboult (1 goal, 4 marks, 3 tackles) leads hard and strong to take a good grab. He goes back and kicks a goal on his 150th game for the Blues. The celebrations didn't last long as a pair of McDonald goals for the Dee’s extended the margin to a game high 17 points, all the momentum with the Dee’s. When the Blues needed a goal to stem the flow, they found one from an unlikely source, as a quick snap from Liam Stocker (15 disposals, 3 tackles, 1 goal) goes through for his first of his career (although you wouldn't think it considering the response and the reception from his teammates.) The second came from a familiar face as McKay is paid his obligatory 1 free kick a game (despite him earning like 6 or 7) and trademark Harry kicks his first of the game, with one arm. But like always, the Blues’ lapses in concentration cost them dearly as Jayden Hunt (1 goal, 14 disposals, 5 tackles) finds himself all alone from a defensive 50 stoppage, he kicks truly which serves as a dagger to the heart for the Blues.
“Premiership Quarter” as it was once dubbed proved to be the most important quarter of the game as if the Blues could peg back a couple of goals, then they are back in town. On the flip side, if the Dee’s chipped away at a depleted Blues outfit, then the game could all but be sealed. Unfortunately, the latter occurred. As the rain started to pour, each goal became even more vital, and as all good sides do, they find a way to make it theirs. 3 goals in a row from Ed Langdon (24 disposals, 75% Disposal Efficiency, 446 metres gained), Alex Neal-Bullen (2 goals, 8 score involvements, 5 tackles) and Bayley Fritsch saw the margin pushed out to 31 points 20 minutes into the 3rd term, it’s damage limitations for the Blues at this stage. When the Blues needed someone to save them, a man they call ‘Feathers’ came down from the heavens, with one arm to drag the Blues back. Harry stands strong and takes a good mark, earns a 50 to slam it home from the goal square. From that centre bounce, Ed Curnow (27 disposals, 469 meters gained, 6 inside 50’s) laces him out 50m out from goal, he launches one to get the margin back down to 19 points. Again, unfortunately, the Blues can’t have 22 Harry McKay’s, as up the other end, Kysaiah Pickett (12 disposals, 31 pressure acts, 1 goal) shows off a bit of individual class, as he rolls it home, in the wet to put a swift end to the Blues resurgence. The Blues were spared just a little bit as Sam Weideman (5 score involvements, 5 marks) shot after the siren was dragged to the left of goal and the margin was a gettable 26 points at the last change.
Considering the state of the game and the conditions as well, you would think that it wouldn't take a lot for the Dee’s to seal this game, and when Charlie Spargo (1 goal, 7 score involvements, 4 inside 50’s) snapped through the first of the last, it was all but game over. Inaccuracy was the only thing stopping the Dee’s from making the scoreline absolutely embarrassing for the Blues. 2 nice finishes from Michael Gibbons (1 goal, 4 marks) and Marc Murphy (19 disposals, 7 score involvements) showed their class but it was all too late as the Blues were beaten by the better side by 26 points.
BREAKING IT DOWN: KEY MATCH INSIGHTS
Pressure Only Gets You So Far
The notion this season is that pressure wins you games. While that may be the case, pressure is only good, if you have everything around it. Carlton laid 77 tackles to Melbourne’s 75. Unassuming numbers, however, consider the fact that the Blues had 21 tackles inside 50 to the Dee’s 7. The Blues have been lambasted this season for their lack of pressure, so to see the heat being put on and for the result to be the same, says alot about either the actual efficiency of pressure, or whether the Blues are a team which doesn't need to rely on pressure to win. Another stat which is damning is that the pressure act leaned toward the Blues at 314-306, again, the perceived pressure from the Blues had little to no effect on the outcome of the game. Two stats which show this are the disposal efficiency and turnovers. The Dee’s had an Disposal efficiency of 67.2% to the Blues 65.6%, as well as 19 more effective disposals. And the Turnover metric paints arguably a worse light for the Blues as they had 19 more turnovers than the Dee’s with the stats showing 83-64 in favour of the Dee’s. Considering the conditions of the game, especially in the second half, you would think the game would have favoured the team who put on more pressure. However, this goes to show that you can't just run around at the ball carrier, you need to put pressure on smartly, that's something the Blues seem to not be able to do.
Composure is Key:
Something that carries on from the previous point is that, when the pressure comes, you need to be able to maintain a level head and keep composure, and both sides showed the polar opposites of that on Sunday. Already mentioned was the turnover stat, which saw the Dee’s have far less than the Blues, however when you look deeper, it shows that the Blues crumble under limited pressure, whereas the Dee’s thrive under preserved ‘loads’. Efficiency inside 50 screams out when it comes to composure, as the Dees had an efficiency percentage of 56% to the Blues 34%, ruthlessness is vital if you want to become an elite team in the competition as the Dee’s are proving to be. This is also shown with how much work Carlton needed to do compared to the Dee’s to get shots on goal as the Blues needed 34 disposals per goal, whereas the Dee’s only needed 27.6. This is also evident per scoring shot as the Dee’s needed 12.41 disposals per shot, whereas the Blues needed 18.89. The Blues need to find a way to score easier, this may have something to do with lowering the eyes inside 50, as the Dee’s took 14 marks inside 50 to the Blues 6.
FINAL SCORES
Melbourne: 4.3 (27), 8.6 (54), 12.9 (81), 13.16 (94)
Carlton: 3.2 (20), 6.5 (41), 8.7 (55), 10.8 (68)
Carlton Goals: McKay (3), Betts, Owies, Casboult, Gibbons, Murphy, Stocker, Pittonet
Carlton Best: Walsh, Docherty, Cripps, Newman, McKay, Fogarty, Curnow.
