The Preview | Round 9 V Melbourne
Written by Ari Stamatakos
The Season So Far:
The Dees are flying, both on field and off it. On it, 8-0, beating quality opposition along the way and playing football which suggests that they won't be losing their 0 anytime soon. Off it, their 2 star players have signed lucrative long term deals to effectively make them Demon's for life with Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca both putting pen to paper this year. Across the city, it couldn't be a more different scenario. Carlton are in dire straits both on and off the field. On it, 3-5 with constant poor performances against big sides making growns echo amongst the Carlton faithful. Off it, rumours of the great white hope Patrick Cripps going back home to Perth are only getting stronger and the leading goal kicker not signing with his stock rising each week is creating unneeded concern.
On a Sunday afternoon at the MCG, these two sides will go to battle in what has traditionally been a pretty close encounter with momentum swings aplenty.
Melbourne will be without up and riser Luke Jackson as he goes down with a fractured finger, this allows Sam Weideman, who has been knocking on the door for senior selection to make his mark on the AFL side. On the Carlton side of things, Jack Silvagni can't catch a break as he will miss 1, potentially 2 weeks with concussions. Multiple players available for selection as Marc Murphy, Tom De Koning and Nic Newman all returning from injuries.
One thing that has been impressive about the Dees this season is their game management. They are the best in the comp when it comes to icing a game, controlling the tempo, putting the foot on the throat or even just doing enough to win. This has been led via an elite team defence which has improved on leaps and bounds since 2020. They always pick the right option so the Blues will need to be ruthless with their scoring shots as they will definitely be hard to come by on Sunday.
The Blues game this season has revolved around the contest. Despite the debacle that was that Doggies game, the Blues still are one of the premier clearance sides in the competition and they will need to exploit the perhaps lack of centre clearances presence that the Dees have, if they were to have any chance in picking up 4 points.
The Last Time They Met:
Last time these two sides met; it was the return of football. An empty Marvel Stadium was the setting and after months and months of absence, finally the weekend entertainment returned.
However, it wasn't entertainment for too long for the Blues, as they coughed up the first 7 goals of the game as halfway through the second the Dees were up by 42 points. Jayden Hunt had kicked 3, Alex Neal-Bullen had kicked 2 and Melbourne were obliterating the Blues. Until the fightback. David Cuningham got the ball rolling for the Blues with a clean finish from 25 on the run. That was quickly added two by Darcy Lang who slammed the ball on the boot from the stoppage to get the Blues second and two to give them hope. Levi Casboult kicks his first just after the restart and then Mitch McGovern marks 50 out and kicks truly to give the Blues hope heading into the final portion of the game. An immediate reply from Christian Petracca halted the Blues just a bit as the Dees only took a 23 point lead heading into the final break. The Blues started hot, Michael Gibbons kicked well for his first, before Eddie Betts kicked his first goal back in the Navy Blue to get the margin back to 9. Agonising misses from both Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps saw a bit of Deja vu for the Blues fans, but when Cripps stood tall and took a good mark 30 out, went back and kicked it the game was well and truly in the Blues favour. Jack Martin went so close not long later and scores were level, but only one team looked like winning. However, the Dees slingshot to find Bayley Fritsch in the pocket who marked, and somehow missed from point blank range. With that however, the Dees somehow managed to hold on to a one point win after kicking a single point in the last term, and only 8 points in the second half.
The Blues best were Sam Docherty (24 disposals, 83% efficiency 6 marks) Ed Curnow (21 disposals, 7 marks, 6 inside 50’s) and Patrick Cripps (21 disposals, 7 score involvements, 6 clearances)
Team Stats Breakdown:
Despite both team’s difference in ladder position and overall play, they surprisingly, both use the ball equally as poorly. Carlton goes at 71.6% and the Dees go at 70.9%, ranked 16th and 17th respectively. This makes you think, how can two teams use the ball virtually the same, yet be so different when it comes to quality? Add this to the fact that they both have a virtually identical inside 50 efficiencies with the blues being at 51% and the Dees being at 50%, how can this be?
Well the difference is without the ball. The Dees have laid the second most tackles in the league with 63.8 per game, whereas the Blues fall on the other end of the spectrum sitting at 4th last with 52.5 tackles per game. The tackles inside 50 also show plenty as the Dees lead that metric with 13.3 per game, whereas the Blues languish at third last with a measly 8 per game. The game this season has revolved around the pressure you apply without the ball, the Dees hunt and attack the footy with anger and aggression, whereas the Blues lack that similar approach and it’s costing them big time and they can't seem to find the same results as the Dees. This can be seen as they have been out tackled by 9.9 per game this season, the worst differential of any side.
Another reason this could be is that the Dees take control of territory like very few in the comp. They rank 2nd for metres gain differential at +403.9%, this is a major part of the Dees system, you can see a bit of Richmond in the way they play, the manic kick forward with tones and tones of forward pressure to force the defence into mistakes, this is something the Blues need to find a way to get around.
“Key” Matchup:
Rather than focus on player vs player, this game is screaming out of the Dees defence vs the Blues Attack, specifically, team vs individual. It can't be argued this season that the Blues attack this season has been carried by Harry McKay, who has come on leaps and bounds in season 2021 and leads the Coleman Medal race with an already career best 30 goals. Apart from some magic from Eddie Betts and some midfield goals, it's been a Harry focused forward line so far this season (Charlie, we miss you.) This is the opposite to the Dees defence who have worked in a unit and have been near on impenetrable this season.
The Dees have conceded 61.5 points per game, 7.8 marks in their defensive 50 per game and have conceded a goal from 17.2% and a score from 31.5% of their opponents inside 50’s this season, all ranked first in the comp. This is clear proof of the impenetrable nature of the Dees defensive unit this season. Steven May and Jake Lever have been the pillars for this recent success as they have finally come into their own as players and have taken this Dees team to another level.
The Blues have a way to counteract these. Firstly, their 51% efficiency inside 50 is ranked in the upper echelon of the composition, showing the ruthlessness needed to penetrate the Dees defence. As Well as this, the 12.5 marks inside 50 per game show that they have the ability to find space and lower the eyes inside to counteract the big intercept marking defenders of the Dees. They are also ranked 8th for goals per game with 12.8 only 0.1 shy of their opponents the Dees.
