The Scout Report | Round 3 v Hawthorn
Hawthorn
A surprise to some who had these guys bottom 2 at the start of the year. Sam Mitchell has got them humming. Playing to their strengths and posing an awkward match up for the sides playing them each week.
Showcasing a fast counter aggressive style, that mirrors Sam’s own approach to football in the way it is patient under pressure, they have shell-shocked the sides in front of them.
Hosting a backline that feeds on the opposition’s mistakes, is a recipe for all games to be a danger with them, and a side that is rapidly growing in confidence week by week. CJ, Hardwick and co have at times dined out on the opposition’s perceived dominance.
A game Carlton will go into as favourites, but one if they don’t play to their strengths and be patient then it could be the proverbial banana skin. Like all counter attacking sides, they rely on tight scoreboards, taking your chances early, will force the Hawks to shelve a patient style and be more expansive.
Looking In Transition
Hawthorn have prided themselves this season, on being able to force you into the long kick, they have actively packed the midfield, and forced isolated targets long, operating in a tight man on man situation and backing their running power from CJ, Hardwick etc to get their first and hit you on the counter press.
Possessing disciplined structure, they take the short options away in the midfield, and force the opposition to target CHF. In this case - no Dixon, no Port - and marks were often a charity ball for the Hawks Defence.
Being a low maintenance style of play, it leaves a cluster in the midfield on transition, having one outs around the ground, and with exceptional patience down the back and quality users as the game is stretched as oppositions plow forward, the options to score are plenty in this game style.
The Hawks have always been a good kicking side, and with 3 kicks they are now in a position to flood the 50 and result in another transition goal. Their best weapon is your offense and as demonstrated here, it all starts with taking away the corridor and forcing the long option that looks easy but is a trap.
Looking In Transition – The Cure
What has been new to Carlton’s approach is their ability to lock the ball in and the massive increase in tackles. Last year only one player (Owies 1.1) averaged over a tackle a game in forward 50, this year they 8 players over 1 tackle and 3 with 2 or more. Part of this reason is the target looks to drop the ball to a hard running midfield that also actively takes part in these contests. Hansen is systematic in his approach, and like his forwards to be in front of the contest, meaning one, if the ball doesn’t fall there, they are in position to stop any rebound by being in position to tackle, or two, they will be at the fall of the ball to mop it up or create a stoppage.
As the ball hits the deck, Carlton flood the area - as you can see, we now outnumber the dogs in a scene that was 1 on 1. The hard-working intent of the players for 4 quarters forces sides into errors, with the Dogs’ efficiency. shooting down in the 3rd and 4th like the Tigers. One of the showcases this year is the handballing inside 50, working together and eliminating any pressure from the defenders.
Keeping it Moving
Although they lost the clearances and stoppages, what Hawks have done well, is to keep the ball in play, and in motion, looking to look for uncontested football, and to keep the ball moving forward.
Like Mitchell, as the ball is put down the wing to clear, the Hawks engage and look to use lots of sharp small handball and kicking chains, to tire the opposition down. The Hawks have utilised the old Dynasty method of making the opposition chase shadows and have shown great patience in being able to retain possession as opposed to aimlessly looking for territory.
In 3 quick handballs, they have gone from heavy contested football, to a foot race inside 50. Making the opposition chase shadows, but in a structured attacking group, they are working half as hard energy wise. Mitchell showcases a phenomenal understanding of the modern game and uses his skillset of his players to maximise ball movement and his chance to out gun a heavier midfield.
Keeping it Moving – The Cure
Another huge plus on the Blue boys, is their own method. They have shortened their average possession by roughly 8 metres, and by doing this they are always in position to influence any turnovers, but also be their to support each other. In this example the ball is in contest outside 50 and just regained. Watch how quickly they transition. This is caused by excellent positioning off the ball and ball movement that allows a seamless attack.
Within 3 handballs, Carlton has an exit, they have looked this year to themselves move short. Then play to the fat sides of the ground. The method to beat Hawks is to not allow them to have the time to counterattack and to force them to match you goal for goal.
This resulted in an easy goal out the back. Carlton managed very quickly to take territory football like Hawks, and hit them back, Carlton like the Hawks hunt in numbers, but have showcased an ability to do this against the premium opposition in control and defence.
Carlton Centre Bounce & Stoppages
This has been perhaps Carlton’s most dominant change, their ability now to be way more aggressive, just dropping the ball into the midfielder’s feet. Hewett here acting as a stopper not allowing Macrae near the ball, and Walsh in this example hanging back as the outlet, opening and creating a decision for Bont to work out where the ball is going. This has allowed Cripps to get the jump week in week out, and with Cerra being added here, it makes it incredibly hard to read. This is an area the Hawks are poor at but have strong rebound ability. Carlton don’t bomb it long though, they look to play it, and as shown by North in Round 1, it allows you to gain an early edge.
Cripps manages to bring it out behind him, and now Carlton have an outlet, as Macrae is targeted by Cripps and Bont leaves Walsh.
From here it’s a move backwards, and out and Carlton have reacted so quickly as they believe and trust the system. It works because it plays to the strengths of this midfield, Hewett the Body, Cripps the Beast and Cerra Kennedy and Walsh as the impact users. The Hawks midfield cannot simply contain this as it lacks the pace, and the strength to deal with the method of short movement. It wants long movement and Carlton have only used a long possession in 19% of their clearances this year.
This caused Melbourne to exit to the safe part of the ground. For Carlton fans we only know this way, as manic pressure causes safe outlets
Hawks Patience
The Hawks amazing versatility down back has been showcased in both games this year. Against North they looked to play quickly and take the game to the Roos, and in Port’s case they looked to bully them in the air and go quickly or slowly depending on the time point of the game.
Having exceptional users really helps the Hawks and their steady heads are down there. Sicily, CJ, Hardwick, Frost and Denver have been able to lock teams down, but more importantly find each other when the time permits to use their skillset to put the opposition on the back foot.
Their key outlet though in these games have been their talls from exit in rebound, last week it was McEvoy, and the week prior it was Lewis. This week they are without McEvoy and will rely on Reeves and Lewis again to do this role, this is their exit ball, but pressure must be applied, and i50 cannot be bombed inside, as they use these height advantage players to allow themselves that safety blanket outside of 50.
Conclusion
All in all, it’s a tight game from the eye. But there is not a doubt in my mind that if Carlton plays their possession-based game, go short and play their system then all counter attacking sides are stuck.
The quicker Carlton can force the patient approach away from Hawks the easier this game is. Hawks will go into this game like Deontay Wilder - they can knock you out if you get too close, but the advantage is starting fast, and maintaining that dominance around the contest and around the centre.
The Hawks do not like to to be hurried, so Durdin, Owies and SOS will have an important role in forcing the defence to kick quickly as they have done against Richmond and the Dogs. If this happens, Carlton win by 20+
It is an exciting game on paper and form wise, styles make fights, and we have Carlton’s gun ho, go for it style, versus the timed perfection of Sam Mitchell, a real battle of the modern-day coaches who I expect in the not-too-distant future will fight it out in finals!
