The Preview | Round 3 V Hawthorn
Written By Ari Stamatakos
Season So Far
Who would've thought that Carlton vs Hawthorn on a Sunday 1:10 would be the blockbuster game of the round. Both sides have somehow found themselves 2-0 and on top of the world. Hawthorn sits top of the table after an absolute demolition job of Port Adelaide whereas the Blues scrapped over the line against a very good Western Bulldogs side, seeing them sitting 6th after two rounds.
The Blues have arguably been the story of the season so far. After a massively turbulent off-season, Michael Voss has come in and turned the ship 180 degrees. The Blues look hungry and tough, willing to put their head over every contest and giving 110% at every opportunity. Finally, they have a defensive structure that looks to be able to limit teams scoring, whilst getting the best out of forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, both being able to score at will and turn the game on its head.
However, the star of the season is the midfield group. Clearance after clearance after clearance has been the modus operandi for Patrick Cripps and co this season, being the driving force behind this 2-0 start. Cripps has returned to his 2019 form, having two best on ground performances in his first two games, while Adam Cerra and George Hewett have fit in like a glove with their new clubs. Matthew Kennedy has found career-best form and Sam Walsh has laughed off a syndesmosis injury like it's nothing.
This staggering turnaround from the Blues has given hope to their fans once again. This season might just be the season where things turn around.
Looking at the Hawthorn side of things, they couldn't have gotten off to a better start. 2-0, top of the table, players playing career-best footy, it seems as though they have gotten the dynasty squad back together. Jack Gunston is back to his best and Mitchell Lewis has found the potential that could lead him to be one of the game’s best forwards.
This is where the Hawks have found their success this season. With the two forwards mentioned kicking 14 goals between them so far this season. This was on full display against the Power, where, despite getting absolutely smashed in every Key Performance Indicator, the Hawks found a way to win by 10 goals.
They did this by being quick in transition from defensive 50 and getting the ball deep inside forward 50 to isolated 1v1 with Gunston and Lewis being able to win those battles. The Hawks kicked 9 goals from defensive 50 transitions against the Power. While that emphasizes Hawthorn's ability to kick their way out of defensive 50, Carlton will put 10 times the pressure that Port Adelaide put up last Saturday.
When you look at the avenues for success for both sides, they are obvious from both perspectives. From a Blue Avenue, winning the midfield battle is not only expected to happen but happen ruthlessly. Considering how much of the ball Port had last round, the Blues should have no problems getting their hands on the contested footy. However, where the Power faltered was their ball use. They were appalling at delivering the ball inside 50, this led to shallow turnovers that allowed the Hawks easy exits and quick transitions.
All the Blues need to do is use the ball better inside 50 and hit up targets, and there’s the way to win. They don’t need to overcomplicate things, the blueprint is already there, they just need to execute it.
What does Hawthorn need to do? Well, something very similar to what they did last week, isolate 1v1. You would assume that Jacob Weitering won’t get soundly beaten like the Port defenders were last week, however, being able to dominate Lewis Young is a much easier proposition.
Either Gunston or Lewis is bound to give Lewis Young a hard time so if they can get on top of him early, that is where they can find success early in the piece. Otherwise, it looks to be a war of nutrition where the Hawks looks to grind a result against a rampant and energised Carlton outfit.
Surprisingly this game should be an absolute cracker where both sides fight for the perfect 3-0 start in 2022. If the Blues get up, it will almost guarantee them a place in September. And for the Hawks, well, I’m not sure finals was on the agenda pre-season, but a 3-0 start might just change those slightly.
Team News
For the Blues - what has been confirmed is that Lewis Young will make his debut for the club, replacing injured Oscar McDonald. So this straight swap won’t make too much difference when it comes to structure. However, the Blues have some form of a selection headache when it comes to those returning from Health and Safety Protocols. Adam Cerra and Jack Martin both are ready to play, however, who do you replace? You would think that Cerra would be the one that must play considering how important he is to the midfield. Whereas Jack Martin had a massive last quarter against the Tigers and dragged the Blues over the line. It would be very harsh to drop anyone from that team considering the performance on Thursday, so it will be the first tough decision Voss will have to make as Carlton coach.
What does Sam Mitchell have on his plate, well Chad Wingard’s injury wasn’t as bad as first thought, with his potential few week’s absence cut down so he is in contention to play against Carlton. The Hawks do have a regular starter returning from injury, and that’s WIll Day. He played very well in the VFL and should return to the side for Sunday’s game. Besides that, Mitchell doesn’t have any major selections headaches on his plate for Sunday afternoon.
Prediction
Carlton by 46 points.
