The Scout Report | Round 20 v St Kilda
St Kilda
Overview
The Saints come into this game 12th on the ladder with an 8 win, 10 loss record. Finals is still very much on the agenda, and come into this game on the back of 2 losses.
Known for their manic pressure up forward which is the staple of their game, they look to pressure teams into kicking long and to not leave the 50 without a score. One thing that is a staple of Ratten’s side is to play to your strengths, hosting very quick midfielders and also natural ball winners. They look to move the ball outside from a stoppage and into the hands of Hill, Jones or Butler and to stretch the opposition predominantly down the left-hand side of the ground.
They are very strong around stoppages, partly because they look to hit up their strong side and play backwards, then it’s a chain of handballs to the open side, with a strong focus on playing to open spaces and trying to create indecision in the defensive sides.
They have skill and strength in abundance in the midfield and look to play on quickly and play with flair and freedom. This comes at a price as they commit men forward in offence leaving them open to the counter through the corridor, if you can cope with the pressure and use the ball well the Saints inability to have a Plan B can be their death bed
With such a hectic game style, they do suffer from drifting in and out of the game, sides that have had great success look to maximise this, as Ratten often deploys men behind the ball such as Ryder or Marshall in an attempt to ease pressure and create turnover, at these stages of “Rest” taking the game to the Saints and exposing their backline that looks to bring it to ground and play to its strengths is KEY to beating the Saints.
The Lines
Projected starting positions
Backline
Defenders
Jimmy Webster – Tackles = 1.6, Pressure Acts = 10.2, Ground Ball Gets = 3.9, Disposals Eff = 77.9%
A Player whose numbers probably do not do him justice, A exceptional reader of the play, who can stop the Tall Guys, as well as the small players. Will often be the lockdown guy down back like Plowman, but can find the ball himself and look to turn defence into attack. Keys to beating this guy are playing the ball out in front, and leading him to the play, if he gets in front he will dictate the contest.
Likely Matchup: Zac Fisher.
Projected Winner: Fisher 48% - Webster 52%
Pressure Tendency: Overplays it in traffic, is a handball first in contests.
Callum Wilkie – 1 on 1 Win % = 77.4%, Spoils = 3.9, Intercept Marks = 1.9, Metres Gained = 253.5, Disposal Efficiency = 86.9%.
Very strong and underrated footballer, a very strong one on one and has an elite kick that can pick apart even the strongest forward press. Reads the ball in the air very well, and has very strong positioning that can often surprise the Key Forward. Very smart with his ability to spoil the ball to advantage and play it to the advantage of his talented small defenders.
Likely Matchup: Charlie Curnow
Pressure Tendency: Bangs it down the corridor to clear.
Tom Highmore – Tackles = 2.5, Pressure Acts = 8.4, Ground Ball Gets = 2.5, Disposals Eff = 81.5%
Tom is the modern-day intercepting “third” tall in the Saints backline. Combining strong One on One defending, with an uncanny ability to roll off and look to take the intercept. He is a real threat down back, as he can quickly change defence into attack as he looks to attack first.
Likely Matchup: Matt Owies
Projected Matchup Winner: Owies 51% - Highmore 49%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick to safety down the wing
Ben Long – Tackles = 2, Pressure Acts = 8.8, Ground Ball Gets = 2, Disposals Eff = 68.8%
Hard as nails type defender. Has a phenomenal vertical leap, and can play on players a lot taller than he is, Very strong around the contest and looks to stifle his opposite number via being there at every opportunity. Has not had the greatest of years and the numbers do not excite you. But he is very tough to shrug off. Expect a day at work with Ben around the 50.
Likely Matchup: Jack Martin
Projected Matchup Winner: Martin 59% - Long 41%
Pressure Tendency: Runs with it under pressure
Dougal Howard – 1 on 1 Win % = 70.5%, Spoils = 8.6, Intercept Marks = 2.3, Metres Gained = 347, Disposal Efficiency = 85%
A very versatile backman, who is tough to beat one on one and also needs attention himself as he can use it very well for a man of his size. Looks to bring the ball down as is the case with the backline at saints, and is very mobile himself when the ball does hit the deck. Likes to get out in front and get his big arms in the way and stifle clean grabs. A tough matchup for most forwards.
Likely Matchup: Harry McKay.
Pressure Tendency: Likes to bang it on the boot through the corridor
Hunter Clark – Tackles = 3.1, Pressure Acts = 15.3, Ground Ball Gets = 5.5, Disposals Eff = 72.5%
A Threat off half-back. Hunter with the ball in hand is as good as anyone in the competition for breaking lines. Often a barometer for transition as he looks to take the game on and play one-twos with the wing and get the ball moving into the opposition half. A constant threat who can himself hold up an opposition half-forward.
Likely Matchup: Jack Silvagni Projected Matchup Winner:- Silvagni 56% - Hall 44%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to take the game on and can be caught out.
Midfielders
Brad Hill– Disposals Avg. = 20.1, Kick Efficiency = 75%, Metres Gained = 400.4, Tackles = 2.2
Very evasive footballer, who looks to get the game running and link up with the Saints marauding Half Backs. Relishes the philosophy that Ratten has created in the terms of he's quick, he's skilful and he plays on instinct, more often than not looks to launch early from deep and is a catalyst for everything good about Saint Kilda.
Likely Matchup: Jack Newnes
Projected Matchup Winner:- Newnes 34% - Hill 66%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to Kick inside or Handball inside.
Zak Jones – Disposals = 22.9, Score Involvements = 5.4, Marks = 3.8, Goals = 0.2, Clearances = 5, Ground Balls = 5.6, Inside 50 to Creation % = 11.1%
A Dashing player who looks to combine his strength and fight for the contest with raw pace and an eye for gaps in the midfield. A real conduit for the defence and the forward line as he sets the momentum in the middle of the park and looks to provide an outlet for his teammates, a player provides a wealth of run and carry but also looks to use it wisely.
Likely Matchup: Matthew Kennedy
Projected Matchup Winner: - Kennedy 45% - Jones 55%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick it forward into space
Jack Billings – Disposals Avg. = 20.1, Kick Efficiency = 68.6%, Metres Gained = 337, Tackles = 2
Often deployed anywhere from Left-wing to the Left Half Back Flank. Acts as a safety net for Hill to run past and will himself be a dangerous proposition going forward. One of the Left Side Crew will look to exploit space and use their run and skill to attack inside 50 and break lines. A very dangerous player who is given space can himself score or find someone open to finish a handball chain.
Likely Matchup: Sam Walsh
Projected Matchup Winner:- Walsh 59% - Billings 41%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick to the wing or half-forward flank
Forwards
Dan Butler – Disposals = 11.4, Metres Gained = 222.1, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 14%, Score Involvements = 4.6, Goals = 0.9
The Dangerman, Drops deep up the wing on the left side for the ball and goes deep when the ball is close to 50. A real threat as he tends to run into the square then peels back which creates space behind him. A Pressure magnet too as he looks to attack the man in possession hard, and affect the rebound.
Likely Matchup: Lachie Plowman
Pressure Tendency: Kicks it on top of the square.
Max King – Goals = 1.6, Mark Inside 50 = 2.7, Shots per Game = 3.8, Score Involvements = 5.5
The Prototype Forward, Strong, Atheltic and very good on the deck too. Has a strong eye for goal and one on one is tough to stop. His ability to cover ground and lead quickly makes him a tough matchup for anyone in the comp. One of the leading players in forwarding 50. The Aldi Lockett.
Pressure Tendency: Looks to mark at all costs.
Jack Higgins – Disposals = 15.1, Metres Gained = 240.9, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 12.8%, Score Involvements = 5.7, Goals = 1.3
Similar to Dan Butler, Can read the play very well, and make himself available one on one inside 50, Looks to stretch the half-back line with a combination of elite skills and footy IQ. Tough on the ground and quick to cover speed, he is part of the pressure that the Saints bring to exit 50.
Likely Matchup: Liam Stocker
Projected Matchup Winner:- Stocker 44% - Higgins 56%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to tap it on when on the deck.
Dean Kent – Disposals = 13.7, Metres Gained = 280.9, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 0%, Score Involvements = 4.7, Goals = 0
Acts as almost a tagging type forward. Has the ability to run in the wing too, and will look to stop a defender from getting chains down back but also will look to support his side with exceptional dummy runs. A case and point as to why stats sometimes do not paint the full picture
Likely Matchup: Adam Saad
Projected Matchup Winner:- Saad 61% - Kent 39%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to Kick inbound
Tim Membrey – Goals = 1.4, Mark Inside 50 = 2.2, Shots per Game = 3.3, Score Involvements = 5.9
A veteran at the support role already with King looks to lead the Intercepting talls into a corridor of uncertainly by taking off early and creating cross patterns with King and the smalls. He also is a very strong mark and often swaps positions in attacking phases with King which can cause havoc when the ball is delivered early with Zones. A long kick who looks to Lead early and leave space behind him for their smalls.
Likely Matchup: Liam Jones
Projected Matchup Winner:- Jones 42% - Membrey 58%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick on the square
Paddy Ryder – Disposals = 9.8, Metres Gained = 147.9, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 7%, Score Involvements = 3.4, Goals = 0.4
Often rotating with Marshall in the Ruck and used as the spare either behind the ball or up forward. Traditionally with a set-up like Carltons, he will be deployed in the forward line and look to feed the smalls crumbs and smash into the contest drawing the attention of the keys.
Likely Matchup: Tom Williamson
Projected Matchup Winner:- Williamson 41% - Ryder 59%
Pressure Tendency: Overuse of the Handball in trouble
Followers
Rowan Marshall – Hit Out Win % = 43%, Hit Outs To Advantage = 34.8%, Clearances = 1.9, Marks = 5.2
A modern-day Ruckman in every sense of the word. Has fantastic bodywork and a good vertical leap, and acts as the man behind the ball or up forward as the third tall when the ball is in open play. Very athletic and very quick for his size.
Likely Matchup: Tom De Koning
Projected Matchup Winner:- TDK 40% - Marshall 60%
Pressure Tendency: Kicking through the Corridor
Jack Steele– Disposals = 28.1, Score Involvements = 5.7, Marks = 4.4, Goals = 0.7, Clearances = 6.1, Ground Balls = 8.9, Inside 50 to Creation % = 10.2%
A Premium midfielder who only gets better year on year. One of the top contested players in the competition who combines his strength with brilliant vision and an uncanny knack to get forward and hit the scoreboard. Looks to really spread the oppositions, main ball winner, around the ground and take them away from the action, while himself impacting around the ground.
Likely Matchup: Patrick Cripps
Pressure Tendency: Looks to keep the ball moving forward
Brad Crouch – Disposals = 26.5, Score Involvements = 5.1, Marks = 2.8, Goals = 0.3, Clearances = 5.3, Ground Balls = 7.4, Inside 50 to Creation % = 8%
The link in the chain man for the Saints looks to keep the ball in motion and often is the man who is acting like a Quarterback dictating the direction of the play. Very evasive and looks to grab the loose ball and take off through the corridor finding passes around the ground.
Likely Matchup: Dow
Projected Matchup Winner:- Dow 43% - Crouch 57%
Pressure Tendency: Handballs into traffic
The Bench
Ryan Byrnes – Tackles = 1.8, Pressure Acts = 16.1, Ground Ball Gets = 3.7, Disposals Eff = 72.7%
A creative general defender, who can push up into the wing role. Part of the rotation the Saints use to exploit the flanks as he fits the bill. Very creative with the ball by hand or foot has the eye for a pass and can dissect with his flat kicks.
Likely Matchup: Lochie O’Brien
Projected Matchup Winner:- O’Brien 42% - Byrnes 58%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick into the corridor
Leo Connolly – Tackles = 0.6, Pressure Acts = 5.6, Ground Ball Gets = 1.4, Disposals Eff = 83.6%
Very evasive and quick footballer. He attacks the lines hard when he has the ball and looks to take the game on. Another one of the speedy halfback/Wingers who have fantastic kicking skills and can split the corridor or the flanks with precision.
Likely Matchup: Josh Honey
Projected Matchup Winner:- Honey 40% - Connolly 60%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to take the game on and hold onto it too long
Seb Ross – Disposals Avg. = 21.7, Kick Efficiency = 58%, Metres Gained = 277, Tackles = 3.1
A very talented midfielder who can play across all 3 lines on the pitch. Very strong attacking skills and looks to open the game up with a combination of speed and an ability to link up the handball chains. One of the many who floats through that dangerous left-hand side,
Likely Matchup: Ed Curnow
Projected Matchup Winner:- Curnow 46%- Ross 54%
Pressure Tendency: Rush Kicks under pressure
Luke Dunstan – Disposals Avg. = 25.3, Kick Efficiency = 55.9%, Metres Gained = 396.1, Tackles = 5.3
Often deployed in a Tagging role or a stopper role. Has a fantastic engine, great defensive skills and also has great vision. He Will is deployed in both of their roles, and I expect him to combine on Sam Walsh & Nic Newman when resting forward.
Likely Matchup: Nic Newman
Projected Matchup Winner:- Newman 51% - Dunstan 49%
Pressure Tendency: Safety Kick out wide
Clearance Patterns
Ball Movement Patterns
The Saints we can see favour the left-hand side of the ground. It is traditional to see them exit d 50 with a handball or kick to the corridor then the switch comes and they take off at speed.
Every passage of play the Saints do with the ball is designed to play into their defend and attack in numbers, and they often suck teams into the draft of defending the left side which then opens the corridor with their handball game.
Have one of the lowest percentages in the AFL for marking disposals, and this allows them to move the ball very quickly and find space in behind, as Ratten likes his team to use chains short and sharp which then has a domino effect on the defence as it draws players to the ball carrier.
How to use Charlie
Manic Pressure
Summary
The Saints are a modern-day football side, that if anything is similar to Liverpool's method of the Gen-Gen Press.
Its high risk and high reward, with men committed in numbers in both phases of the game. They are a strong stoppage side that utilises the ground well and looks to prevent rather than react to being caught out the back by deploying their multiple talls behind the ball in stoppage situations.
With this though comes the method to beating them, if you can penetrate the lines they commit in the forward half with your speedy half backs you find one on ones up the ground. They are very committed to this high-pressure game plan, but they do it in 15 min spurts, it is all about controlling the footy and make them come to you, then look to go quickly once that line is in action.
