The Preview | Round 20 V St Kilda

Written By Ari Stamatakos

The Season So Far

We’re here again. This felt inevitable, didn’t it? The Blues had the golden opportunity to firmly put their name in the final race. A game against North Melbourne which seemed like a gimey turned ugly quickly. A 7 goal to 0 3rd quarter as this was the most embarrassing display this Carlton side has ever dished out. The Blues are now firmly out of the finals race and now it's an all too familiar final month of the season where there are no stakes and nothing to play for. 

On the St. Kilda side of things, they couldn’t be more in the final race. After a very inconsistent opening part of the season, they have rebounded winning some big games against some big sides which has them placed one position higher than the Blues, but it seems that they are in entirely different worlds. A win on Friday night would have them temporarily in the eight and considering the allergy nearly every team has to that 8th spot this season, this could be the win that propels them into back-to-back September footy. 

They say to become the best, you must beat the best - and the Saints have been slightly better at beating the best than the Blues this season. Carlton has yet to beat a side in the top eight whereas the Saints have toppled 3 sides who are well placed to play finals footy, including a 40-point smashing against the Tigers. However, they do tend to lose badly, as their 111-point loss to the Doggies demonstrates.

The Last Time They Met

The last time these two sides met, they played at an empty Marvel Stadium in round 5 of the 2020 season, and that game could prove to be a brilliant prequel to what fate the Blues could suffer if they don’t switch on from the very first siren. 

The Saints started like a house on fire through Max King who got them there first before Josh Battle and Jack Geary added two quick goals to put the margin out to 19 points before the Blues had even started the game. Eddie Betts got the Blues first, but it was responded to by a quick Jarryn Geary just before the quarter-time siren as the Saints took a 20-point lead heading into the main break. That 20-point lead was extended to 32 within minutes of the second term as Max King got his second and Jade Gresham got his snake on the scoreboard. It turned from bad to worse for the Blues as Dan Butler ran into an open 50 and slotted a goal to give the Saints a staggering 37-point lead halfway through the second term. Not even a Sam Philp maiden AFL goal could spark the team as they went into the half an even 5 goals down. The third quarter saw a little bit of a Carlton comeback which included 2 back-to-back goals from Will Setterfield to get the margin back to 18 points, however, again a late Jack Billings goal put the margin out to 23 points right on the 3-quarter time siren and the game was all but done right then and there. And that was solidified when the Saints kicked the first 2 of the last and ran out 18-point winners. 

The best for the Blues on that day were Jack Martin (19 disposals, 9 marks), Sam Docherty (20 disposals, 8 marks) and Patrick Cripps (22 disposals, 4 marks)

Team Stats Breakdown

The Saints are probably the best team at using the ball through the corridor. When they get that fast ball movement and quick transition game going, they are scary to watch. And considering how North carved Carlton apart and through quick transition and precise ball movement, if the Blues aren’t switched on defensively from the very first minute, then things could get very scary very quickly. They play a system that is inclined to that of Richmond early dynasty, fast ball movement to get it forward and manic pressure to lock it in there. As seen by the fact that they rank 3rd for tackles inside 50 differentials with. 

The Blues biggest weakness is defensive transition, this has been a problem ever since the start of the Teague era and the reluctance to change has left many fans frustrated. This was exposed against the Roos as at half-time, 26 points from the Kangaroos' total score of 34 came from their defensive half as the likes of Aaron Hall and Jaidyn Stephenson ran riot. Their tendency to concede inside 50's where it's 3 on 1 or 5 on 2 to the opposition is a damning indictment of where the club is at and will be exposed to full effect by the Saints if the Blues aren’t careful.

“Key” Matchup

This matchup is a story of two tales. One captain who leads from the front, elevating his game week upon week, stepping up when his side needs him. Versus a captain who has degenerated over the last two years, has hidden in the face of adversity and lets his peers do the talking for him, I speak of none other than Jack Steele vs Patrick Cripps. Considering Steele used to tag Cripps, the fact that Steele goes into this matchup the overwhelming favourite says more about how much Cripps has let himself down over the last few years because, at his best, he is the most unstoppable player in the competition. However, his best has been very hard to come by this year and he will need to find it to topple Steele who is smoky for the Brownlow medal.

With the potential return of Charlie Curnow, this his allow Cripps to play pretty much full midfield minutes, where he does his best work. A laser-focused Patrick Cripps is where he doesn’t need to worry about playing forward too much, where he doesn’t need to do everything for the team, he just needs to play his role. And despite a season to forget for Cripps, his numbers still indicate a player who is still very handy to have in your team. His 2.8 centre clearances per game this year ranks elite in the competition as well as his 6.6 score involvements. His disposal game still needs alot of work as he still ranks below average in kick efficiency and  average for disposal efficiency. 

Jack Steele is arguably having a better season than last, and that’s saying alot considering how well he led his Saints side in 2020. He has developed from a serviceable tagger to one of the best midfielders in the game and his stats this season reflect that. In all clearance numbers he ranks elite and has much more of a profound impact on the scoreboard, considering Cripps’ lack of defensive running in recent weeks, this is an area that could be exploited if the Saints were to dominate the midfield battle.