The Scout Report | Round 21 v Gold Coast
Written by Dan Williams
Gold Coast Suns
Overview:
Gold Coast Suns come into this fixture with 6 wins from 19 and on the back of a 3 game losing streak. With all the talk about have they improved & Will Dew be the man to take them forward.
Gold Coast have shown glimpses that their top-end talent is good enough to match it with the best in the league, but have been littered with inconsistency, as shown in the lasts 3 where they have led on the stat sheet for parts of the game, then totally imploded around the ball.
Much of the Gold Coasts success comes from individual performances, such as Touk Miller who has been simply unplayable for large parts of the year, but at times is often exposed on his own as the only real conduit to get the ball inside 50.
Dew likes his side to tackle hard and put pressure around the ball, they look to utilise their skills on the outside and to stop the ball leaving contested situations using their strength around the ball. They are often guilty though of not moving enough ahead of the ball which creates the long kick to a contest which is where many sides have exposed the suns.
Pressure has been their undoing this year, and if a side can get numbers around the ball, and encourage the kick for territory their ability to defend numbers has been found wanting.
The Lines
Projected starting positions.
Backline
Defenders
Will Powell – Tackles = 2.1, Pressure Acts = 11.1, Ground Ball Gets = 3.8, Disposals Eff = 81.5%
A Brave and tenacious defender, who despite his lighter frame is a bull around the hard graft that is defending, talented with the ball in hand, but also talented aerially, he can mix it with a taller type forward but also a dangerous small. A real conduit to transition the football.
Likely Matchup: Zac Fisher.
Projected Winner: Fisher 55% 48% - Webster 45%
Pressure Tendency: Flies for marks, leaves space behind.
Sam Collins – 1 on 1 Win % = 74%, Spoils = 7.8, Intercept Marks = 2.6, Metres Gained = 166, Disposal Efficiency = 80.4%.
He is an efficient lockdown tall, Uses his strength very well, and his positioning is up to there with the best in the League. Is more a spoil first type Defender who will look to stop the Mark first, and then clean up 2nd. Often reacts to the Lead so this is where he can be beaten.
Likely Matchup: Harry McKay
Pressure Tendency: Deep Kick To Either Side
Sean Lemmens – Tackles = 2.3, Pressure Acts = 8.7, Ground Ball Gets = 3.1, Disposals Eff = 75.6%
A transitioned Forward who now plays down back. Sean has a good turn of pace, and a good eye to turn defence into attack, is very good on the ground and looks to support his Talls with his ability to stifle the crumb. A Savvy little footballer, who can at times get caught ball watching. Does not like multiple dummy runs and often can get exposed around this area.
Likely Matchup: Eddie Betts
Projected Matchup Winner: Betts 69% - Lemmens 31%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to run the ball out, and be cute with his exits
Jack Lukosius – Tackles = 1.5, Pressure Acts = 8.8, Ground Ball Gets = 2.5, Disposals Eff = 72.1%
The modern-day Hybrid Defender. An exceptional reader of the play, who can turn a game with his vast repertoire of kicks. Has a real keen eye for transitional play and is one of the Dangermen in a backline that is often under pressure.
Likely Matchup: Josh Honey
Projected Matchup Winner: Honey 48% - Lukosius 52%
Pressure Tendency: Deep Kick Down The Wing
Charlie Ballard – 1 on 1 Win % = 67.2%, Spoils = 4.7, Intercept Marks = 3, Metres Gained = 180.6, Disposal Efficiency = 83.8%
Athletic and a fighter down back. Makes a contest either aerially or on the deck, and can run with versatile forwards. Likes to get the jump on his Forward, and lead them to traffic, this can be his downfall as if a forward roams he often prefers to stay in his hot zone and leave space to be exploited
Likely Matchup: Charlie Curnow.
Pressure Tendency: Quick high ball in the corridor
Jeremy Sharp – Tackles = 0.5, Pressure Acts = 7, Ground Ball Gets = 4, Disposals Eff = 73.6%
Roams between the wing, and Half Back, and is often deployed where the threat exists for a transitional phase. Very strong Elite runner, who has a very good eye for a quick kick and to turn defence into attack. Very solid player by foot who can quickly catch a high forward press.
Likely Matchup: Jack Martin
Projected Matchup Winner:- Silvagni 60% - Sharp 40%
Pressure Tendency: Overuses the handball in traffic
Midfielders
Brandon Ellis – Disposals Avg. = 24.5, Kick Efficiency = 74.9%, Metres Gained = 341, Tackles = 2.7
A seasoned veteran at playing his role, The former Tigers man is a barometer for the pace at which the Suns play football. Often used off Half back or on the wing, he is charged with the responsibility to keep the ball in motion and to lead the charge in a heavy mark game plan. A very shrewd user of the ball, who if isolated can change the game.
Likely Matchup: Jack Newnes
Projected Matchup Winner:- Newnes 39% - Ellis 61%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to take the game on and kick to CHF
David Swallow – Disposals = 22.3, Score Involvements = 4.4, Marks = 5, Goals = 0.3, Clearances = 2.5, Ground Balls = 7, Inside 50 to Creation % = 10.8%
A tenacious footballer who prides himself on making the opposition work. Very strong in the contested department and makes the opposition earn it. A key conduit in their stoppages and clearance work. Often deployed as a stopper or a blocker to allow their talented and quick footballs to feed of his space and run the ball into attacking situations.
Likely Matchup: Patrick Cripps
Projected Matchup Winner: - Cripps 71% - Swallow 29%
Pressure Tendency: Takes the game on with the ball in hand. Can be Caught
Ben Ainsworth – Disposals Avg. = 14.6, Kick Efficiency = 62.8%, Metres Gained = 266.9, Tackles = 2.2
A strong 2-way runner, who has a strong engine and combines that with the ability to find targets inside 50 and to stretch the play. Quick in his ability to make decisions and to spot outlet balls in transition he is a real danger coming off the wing.
Likely Matchup: Lachie O’Brien
Projected Matchup Winner:- O’Brien 41%- Ainsworth 59%
Pressure Tendency: Looks for the short option, often kicks back into trouble in the corridor
Forwards
Darcy MacPherson – Disposals = 13.3, Metres Gained = 137.9, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 11.1%, Score Involvements = 2.9, Goals = 0.1
Usually playing down back, but they often use him to stop a dangerous half back. Very quick in the chase, and closes space very quickly. Uses the ball very well, and is primarily a support player who sacrifices his game for the system.
Likely Matchup: Adam Saad
Projected Matchup Winner:- Saad 61% - MacPherson 39%
Pressure Tendency: Gets rid of it quickly under pressure.
Ben King – Goals = 2.3, Mark Inside 50 = 2.4, Shots per Game = 3.8, Score Involvements = 4.9
Like his brother, he combines strength with ridiculous athleticism. Leads to the ball very well, and is very smart with his ability to go for marks, or to knock it down to Sexton and co. Can go missing though, and this is something that was seen in his Junior years, If you can get the jump early on his, he becomes frustrated and is ineffective.
Pressure Tendency: Looks to lead his man to the ball, creating an opportunity to intercept from the side.
Alex Sexton – Disposals = 9.7, Metres Gained = 224.2, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 13.7%, Score Involvements = 4.1, Goals = 1.1
An excellent reader of the play, who once he gets in the goals is very tough to stop. Elite when the ball is kicked out in front of him and uses his body well to stifle and create opportunity for his forwards. One negative is his pressure is not quite at the level of the rest of his game, and can be targeted for exits out of 50 and into a transition attack
Likely Matchup: Nic Newman
Projected Matchup Winner:- Newman 56%- Sexton 44%
Pressure Tendency: Looks to take the game on his self, can be caught or exposed
Jacob Townsend– Disposals = 9.4, Metres Gained = 121.9, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 18.2%, Score Involvements = 3.3, Goals = 0.7
Likes to come deep for the ball and be the conduit between midfield and the forward line. Has a real good engine and uses this to try and draw defenders into no man's land in midfield. Brings the pressure and looks to lock the ball in at all costs.
Likely Matchup: Liam Stocker
Projected Matchup Winner:- Stocker 51% - Townsend 49%
Pressure Tendency: Likes to set it up on the square
Joel Jeffrey – Goals = 0.0, Mark Inside 50 = 1, Shots per Game = 2, Score Involvements = 2
A Raw talent who for a Tall has exceptional pressure. In his formative years before AFL was often used to stop the intercepts, and has the skill set to stifle interceptors down the back by being almost in the way at times. Someone who can create in behind, and although so far has not set the world alight, the way he plays can impact where his stats doesn't
Likely Matchup: Liam Jones
Projected Matchup Winner:- Jones 71% - Jeffrey 29%
Pressure Tendency: Crashes into the contest and flys under it
Josh Corbett – Disposals = 8.5, Metres Gained = 164.7, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 17.3%, Score Involvements = 4.3, Goals = 1.5
Often will switch with FF from the pocket, Dew likes to have 3 taller players in his forward line to match up with his Marking game style. Creates the mismatch around the forward line and looks to impact the ground and work of the smalls very well. Good Aerially and an elite leader to the ball, this causes space behind him and can find holes in the Zones.
Likely Matchup: Lachie Plowman
Projected Matchup Winner:- Williamson 44% - Corbett 56%
Pressure Tendency: Will Kick high centrally under pressure
Followers
Zac Smith – Hit Out Win % = 29.3%, Hit Outs To Advantage = 29.1%, Clearances = 3.2, Marks = 1
One dimensional type Ruckman, who relies on his ability to influence the stoppages and tap the ball to advantage. Needs to work on his ability around the ground, as he is versatile but often gets exposed around the ground. Looks to rest in the forward half of the ground and be the conduit or outlet ball for the midfield.
Likely Matchup: Tom De Koning
Projected Matchup Winner:- TDK 41% - Smith 59%
Pressure Tendency: Keeps the ball going forward
Touk Miller – Disposals = 31.5, Score Involvements = 5.8, Marks = 4.7, Goals = 0.3, Clearances = 5.8, Ground Balls = 8.8, Inside 50 to Creation % = 8.3%
In the form of his career at the moment. Has all the skillsets to be a top-end player and probably will finish top 5 in the Brownlow this year. Very elusive in close and can find space in a crowded elevator. Uses his centre of the gravity well and is very tough defensively. If he gets off the chain he is deadly but looks to play one-twos a lot, if you can stop his outlet to run on, you win the battle
Likely Matchup: Sam Walsh
Pressure Tendency: Looks to play one-twos
Noah Anderson – Disposals = 21.8, Score Involvements = 3.6, Marks = 3.8, Goals = 0, Clearances = 4, Ground Balls = 6.8, Inside 50 to Creation % = 6.9%
Provides a real link in the cog of the Gold Coast Midfield. Looks to be the provider to Miller and Co, and use short sharp handballs to find holes in the oppositons lines. A very smart footballer who does what he says on the tin.
Likely Matchup: Paddy Dow
Projected Matchup Winner:- Dow 59%- Anderson 41%
Pressure Tendency: Overuses the handball
The Bench
Jy Farrar – Disposals = 13.6, Metres Gained = 141.7, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 2.3%, Score Involvements = 2.1, Goals = 0
Will be deployed either down back in his traditional position, or as an extra option in the forward rotation. Is high pressure and is used to stop the opposition where they get a bit off the chain. Has a strong aerobic capacity so roams around the ground, and is an underrated part of the defensive plan of the Suns
Likely Matchup: Tom Williamson
Projected Matchup Winner:- Williamson 68%- Farrar 32%
Pressure Tendency: Kicks down the wing
Brayden Fiorini – Disposals = 23, Score Involvements = 4.1, Marks = 5.6, Goals = 0, Clearances = 3.9, Ground Balls = 5.6, Inside 50 to Creation % = 10.5%
A real Quarterback type midfielder, who loves to be the outlet ball and get the play moving forward at a real pace with his kicks. An elusive player who can find holes in the lines and take the game on quickly.
Likely Matchup: Ed Curnow
Projected Matchup Winner:- Curnow 36% - Fiorini 64%
Pressure Tendency: Handballs back inside
Chris Burgess – Hit Out Win % = 26.4%, Hit Outs To Advantage = 27%, Clearances = 1.9, Marks = 3.9
Developed his Ruck game due to mass Ruck injuries at the Suns, has a good engine that allows him to drop ahead of the ball and create marking options, particularly when they are pegged back in their defensive line. Strong in the air, and acts as a pressure conduit in the middle of the park.
Likely Matchup: Jack Silvgani
Pressure Tendency: Looks to kick it long centrally
Matt Rowell – Disposals = 14, Score Involvements = 3.1, Marks = 1.6, Goals = 0.2, Clearances = 3.6, Ground Balls = 5.4, Inside 50 to Creation % = 15.8%
The Sensation that is Matt Rowell, Has struggled in his 2nd return from injury, but his class is there for all to see. Strong in and under the ball and has a fantastic vision on and off the ball. Brings the pressure around the ground, and looks to make a contest wherever he is
Likely Matchup: Matt Kennedy Projected Matchup Winner:- Kennedy 55% - Rowell 45%
Pressure Tendency: Handball back inside
Clearance Patterns
Ball Movement Patterns
The Suns look to attack the right-hand side of the ground as their default method of movement.
Usually, this comes from their habit of looking for marks, which is a staple of the way Dew likes to play, from watching and breaking down a suns game plan it seems to follow a mantra of, Kick to Hands, Gain Territory and run it out as their priorities in order.
Often with the more direct style of play, it creates space between the lines, which on intercept allows the opposition to poke and prod holes in the lines and bog them down or make them work very hard defensively hence the 4th quarter implosions
How to Win
Stoppages
Summary
Gold Coast play a style of football that focuses on creating movement that is quick and long with every possession, It’s a very early hawthorn style of play, which in some ways in today's AFL is becoming archaic.
The methods of their movement require elite kicking, elite movement and high aerobic capacity as if the ball is turned over, due to their movement of kicking the ball long for the territory it creates space between the lines, these gaps and separation work well in offensive passages, but put a lot of pressure and running required on the midfield group. This is where sides have had great success versus the Suns as their ability to run out a game when you are working so hard in both stages of play mean it requires herculean levels of fitness
Carlton should look to use this to their advantage and play a short style of passing, to encourage them to look to come up for the ball and pick the opposition off down the back. Their rigid defensive style should be a dream for Charlie & Harry as they can run in the pockets of space between the Half Back Line and midfield and leave space for their smalls.
