The Scout Report | Round 19 v North Melbourne

North Melbourne

Overview

North come into this game with 3 wins, 13 losses and a draw from their 17 games this year.

Many people’s selections for the wooden spoon at the seasons start, they have impressed with a surprise win in Perth vs the Eagles.

One strength for them is their strength around stoppages, with a young line on the ball mixed with some experience in the shape of Cunnington. Like most of Noble affiliated sides, they utilise the short kick and look to open up gaps in the defensive line and penetrate that with a mix of kicking and gut running.

A very tough side to break down who can slow the game down and look generate a dominance around the centre clearance, and utilise Simpkin and Tarryn Thomas to benefit from the hard blocks from Ben Cunnington and launch inside 50 as soon as possible, where their strong forwards look to bring the ball down or mark in isolation.

The midfield favours going down the flanks in contested situations and in recent weeks this has seen the rise of strong performances from Jaidyn Stephenson and Tarryn Thomas, a hard-running side with a great mix of pace and transitional flair.

Obviously, with a young side, the consistency is the main issue, but have the tools to hurt opposition on the transition especially with the combination of Ziebell and Hall off half-back, who look to transition as quickly as they can with kicks or running through the corridor from Hall

The Lines

Projected starting positions

Backline

Defenders

Shaun Atley – Tackles = 1.4, Pressure Acts = 9.8, Ground Ball Gets = 3.4, Disposals Eff = 81.5%

A seasoned veteran who often takes the tricky small forward, strong overhead and can stick with the majority of smalls in the comp. Loves to peel off and take the intercept and launch an attack from deep. Very reliable player who has very good usage.

Likely Matchup: Eddie Betts.

Projected Winner: Betts 51% - Atley 49%.

Pressure Tendency: Kick to The Corridor

Ben McKay – 1 on 1 Win % = 74.6%, Spoils = 6.9, Intercept Marks = 1.8, Metres Gained = 83.6, Disposal Efficiency = 75%.

The Twin of another beast of the arcs, Very strong overhead, and has very high athleticism which allows him to roam and be a difficult matchup for the majority of the comb. A very good field kick, who often peels off late and uses his speed to out mark his man.

Likely Matchup: Harry McKay

Pressure Tendency: Kick Down the Left Side

Kayne Turner – Tackles = 2.9, Pressure Acts = 15.2, Ground Ball Gets = 3.8, Disposals Eff = 70%

Kayne can run down both flanks and has a strong engine. Usually deployed down the left-hand side of the field against a tricky small. Has a good turn of pace, and has elite pressure acts. Will look to get the ball to the ground and set up a score launch from deep by breaking the lines and setting the Roos up on Transition

Likely Matchup: Zac Fisher

Projected Matchup Winner: Fisher 46%- Turner 54%

Pressure Tendency: Handball outside

Josh Walker – 1 on 1 Win % = 77.3%, Spoils = 3.9, Intercept Marks = 1.9, Metres Gained = 197.5, Disposal Efficiency = 80.1%.

An old-school lockdown defender, who sticks tight to him man and looks to stop anything aerial from being taken. Keeps his position well and is strong in his bodywork which makes it a long day for his opposite number

Likely Matchup: Jack Martin.

Projected Matchup Winner: Martin 55% - Walker 45%

Pressure Tendency: Kick Down to Flanks

Jack Ziebell – Tackles = 1.8, Pressure Acts = 7.8, Ground Ball Gets = 3.5, Disposals Eff = 83.8%

Re-inventing himself as a rebounding small defender, Jack has become the sides go-to man in transition. A Noble type player, who combines elite kicking efficiency with long metres gained. Looks to benefit from the work of those around him and turn defence into a counter-attack. A very intelligent footballer who plays the role exceptionally well and must be stopped.

Likely Matchup: Jack Silvagni

Pressure Tendency: Kick to the flanks

Aaron Hall – Tackles = 2.4, Pressure Acts = 9.7, Ground Ball Gets = 3.3, Disposals Eff = 74%

Another threat off half-back uses his pace to break the line of the forward press and launch into the corridor. Loves to take off by foot and penetrate any kick defence and then will be deployed further up the field to impact. An elite player who is in a rich vein of form.

Likely Matchup: Ed Curnow

Projected Matchup Winner:- Curnow 46% - Hall 54%

Pressure Tendency: Overuse of the ball by hand.

Midfielders

Trent Dumont – Disposals Avg. = 17.1, Kick Efficiency = 64.2%, Metres Gained = 279.9, Tackles = 2.1

Usually deployed as a defensive type winger, who will look to offer protection for Hall or Ziebell depending on which side, plays an old school wing role where he is the facilitator and will look to keep the play moving forward and retain possession at all costs in the Noble patient game style.

Likely Matchup: Zac Williams

Projected Matchup Winner:- Williams 66% - Dumont 34%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks Forward for Territory.

Jy Simpkin – Disposals = 26.5, Score Involvements = 4.8, Marks = 4.2, Goals = 0.1, Clearances = 5.1, Ground Balls = 7.1, Inside 50 to Creation % = 13.8%

A real strong midfielder, who controls and uses the ball very well and also stops the opposition playing inside the corridor. Has a good engine and a real head over the ball mentality, can run with the majority of midfielders in the competition and can affect and impact himself.

Likely Matchup: Matthew Kennedy

Projected Matchup Winner:- Kennedy 48% - Simpkin 52%

Pressure Tendency: Takes the game on and can give it up under pressure

Luke McDonald – Disposals Avg. = 17, Kick Efficiency = 64.4%, Metres Gained = 267.1, Tackles = 1.8

Again another midfielder who can swing on the ball and offer protection on the outside has a good engine and runs down the flanks all day. A key part of the North Melbournes game plan as they play a lot down his side look to their wings to offer ball retention and to keep the ball moving.

Likely Matchup: SPS

Projected Matchup Winner:- SPS 45% - McDonald 55%

Pressure Tendency: Loves to Deep kick inside 50.

Jaidyn Stephenson – Disposals = 19.6, Metres Gained = 379.8, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 14.8%, Score Involvements = 4.8, Goals = 0.9

Enjoying the fresh surroundings at Arden Street, Jaidyn is going from strength to strength, one of the many who is rotated on the ball and off half-forward. Has strong aerial craft, and has great football IQ. Great turn of pace and a keen eye for goal. A real handful for whoever gets him.

Likely Matchup: Lachie Plowman

Projected Matchup Winner:- Plowman 61% - Stephenson 39%

Pressure Tendency: Kicking for territory.

Nick Larkey – Goals = 1.6, Mark Inside 50 = 1.7, Shots per Game = 2.6, Score Involvements = 4.4

Young and very strong. Uses his pace and strength to gain the lead in a one on one situation. Once he gets going he is up there with the best forwards in the comp. Uses his frame very well and is tough to bring off the ball. Has great vision and utilises his smalls around his feet very well.

Likely Matchup: Jacob Weitering Projected Matchup Winner:- Weitering 79% - Larkey 21%

Pressure Tendency: Looks to set it up on the square

Tarryn Thomas – Disposals = 17.2, Metres Gained = 353.7, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 16.9%, Score Involvements = 5.5, Goals = 1.1

Floats between the forward line & the midfield. Has strong line-breaking speed, and is very crafty in tight situations. If the ball is on the deck he has great below the feet ability and exceptional vision. One to stop for sure.

Likely Matchup: Adam Saad Projected Matchup Winner:- Saad 59% - Thomas 41%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks for territory

Cam Zurhaar – Disposals = 12.5, Metres Gained = 231, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 15%, Score Involvements = 5.2, Goals = 1.4

A real fighter in the forward line. Offers dynamic skills, strong leading patterns as well as ox-like strength and manic pressure. An X Factor player who can turn a game in a blink of an eye. A real competitor and will look to impact the exits out of D50 as well as his own inside the 50s.

Likely Matchup: Liam Stocker Pressure Tendency: Kicks onto the top of the square

Tristan Xerri – Goals = 0.2, Mark Inside 50 = 0.2, Shots per Game = 1.2, Score Involvements = 2.2

Plays in the ruck and as a forward option. Will be charged with keeping Jones company and stopping him from impacting the spoils and intercepts. A raw type of player who has not set the world alight. But has a good size and could cause problems.

Likely Matchup: Liam Jones

Projected Matchup Winner:- Jones 77% - Xerri 23%

Pressure Tendency: Handballs in contested situations

Curtis Taylor – Disposals = 12.2, Metres Gained = 182.6, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 24%, Score Involvements = 3.6, Goals = 0.3

Often deployed as the conduit between midfield and the forward line. Has exceptional vision and can hit a flat kick that separates the defensive zones. Loves to drop deep for the ball and can drag the defender with him causing holes in the back that can be exploited.

Likely Matchup: Nic Newman

Projected Matchup Winner:- Taylor 44% - Newman 56%

Pressure Tendency: Bombs inside 50.

Followers

Todd Goldstein – Hit Out Win % = 49.3%, Hit Outs To Advantage = 31.3%, Clearances = 3.4, Marks = 3.5

A veteran of the comp, and still going strong. A roaming ruckman who will sit behind the ball or be deployed in the forward line to be an aerial threat. A handy 3rd man up in the forward line and is a difficult match up combining strength with high footy IQ

Likely Matchup: Tom De Koning

Pressure Tendency: Kick down the wing.

Luke Davies-Uniacke– Disposals = 20.6, Score Involvements = 4.6, Marks = 4.7, Goals = 0.3, Clearances = 4.4, Ground Balls = 6.9, Inside 50 to Creation % = 12%

Starting to make good on the promise when he went early in the 2017 draft. A real contested bull who can think quick in traffic and burst his way through. Becoming a staple on the ball for North and looks to drive the ball outside and set up attack quickly,

Likely Matchup: Sam Walsh

Pressure Tendency: Looks to keep the ball moving forward via kicks

Ben Cunnington – Disposals = 26.8, Score Involvements = 5.9, Marks = 4.1, Goals = 0.6, Clearances = 7.4, Ground Balls = 9.6, Inside 50 to Creation % = 13.2%

A true definition of a warrior. Strong to the ball and is the teams barometer for pressure. Will be in and under the majority of the game and looks to get the ball out and handball to his side to one of his gut runners. Will go all day and looks to clamp down his opposite man.

Likely Matchup: Cripps

Projected Matchup Winner:- Cripps 59% - Cunnington 41%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks for territory

The Bench

Atu Bosenavulagi – Tackles = 1.4, Pressure Acts = 7.8, Ground Ball Gets = 2.2, Disposals Eff = 80.9%

Another one who is redeveloping his game in new surroundings. A long booming kick and a strong run off half-back. Sticks close to his man and looks to take the game on by foot when ball in hand. Can float up the ground into the midfield and do a stopping role.

Likely Matchup: Tom Williamson

Projected Matchup Winner:- Williamson 62% - Bosenavulagi 48%

Pressure Tendency: Bomb down the flank for territory

Jed Anderson – Disposals = 19.5, Score Involvements = 2.0, Marks = 4, Goals = 0, Clearances = 1, Ground Balls = 6.5, Inside 50 to Creation % = 0%

Returns from injury, but there is no doubting this man's talent. A strong onballer who can find the ball at will. Good use of his frame and has a great change of pace that can enable him to get his kick away by escaping his man

Likely Matchup: Paddy Down

Projected Matchup Winner:- Dow 50% - Anderson 50%

Pressure Tendency: Overuses the handball

Will Phillips – Disposals Avg. = 9.1, Kick Efficiency = 56.5%, Metres Gained = 90.1, Tackles = 2

A first-year player who has been deployed out wide in a stopping role. Has great pressure and a natural football IQ. Looks to attack the right-hand side and get inside 50. Great around stoppages and reads the game very well

Likely Matchup: Matthew Cottrell

Projected Matchup Winner:- Cottrell 51% - Phillips 49%

Pressure Tendency: Early kick inside 50

Bailey Scott – Disposals Avg. = 12.4, Kick Efficiency = 65.5%, Metres Gained = 181.4, Tackles = 2.2

Deployed on the wing or across half-forward. Strong aerially and on the ground, and makes a contest where ever he is. Loves to break away from stoppages in the 50 and snag around the corner. Needs watching in stoppages situations.

Likely Matchup: Jack Newnes

Projected Matchup Winner:- Newnes 60% - Scott 40%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks to 50 through the corridor

Clearance Patterns

A very tough side to stop in the clearances. Using the strength of Cunnington to block a clean run at the ball. They invariably can stop the opposition from getting the clearance and cause a ball up. They aim to move it to the outside as quickly as possible and utilise their pace on the outside to penetrate 50 quickly.

LDU and Anderson will offer some strength and line-breaking speed, and they shark the opposition very well. A tough side to match upon as they have great chemistry and love to dominate the corridor offensively and defensively.

Ball Movement Patterns

North run in the AFL average regime, and we can see they favour the corridor in the entries inside 50. We often see them attack the Right-hand side and then cut inside just before the 50m arc. Opening up the options and looking to find leads from both sides. This pattern of ball movement is very controlled and allows them to lay traps inside 50 where we see players like Dumont signal to come short and this drives the backline out to follow, and then a kick is placed in the opposite direction. A side that never stops moving on entries.

A very patient style as shown by their time spent in possession, they like to build from the back with slow patient kicks and then attack the corridor by foot. Can be exposed on the turnover as often if their kicking game isn’t on they turn over a lot in the centre of the ground.

Kick Ins

This is a key component of their game, as we can see it’s a micro-scaled version of their game, using decoy runs to find gaps in the lines of the opposition. They love to go short from this position and then from their they open the ground up by going down the flank and looking for a runner on the inside.

They can cover a lot of territories quickly and it requires great patience as they have their better ball users down here and look to play a game of cat and mouse as demonstrated in the West Coast game, where a high forward press can be your undoing.

Summary

North may be the bottom of the ladder, but they play a much higher level than your standard bottom of the pile side. A side that is developing confidence on the ball and looks to take the game on from down the back.

A great mix of experience and youth, and a side that looks to utilise the short kick and find gaps in the positioning of its opposition. Any side in the AFL that’s strong around stoppages and Clearances is always a side that deserves respect, as they can take away the skill level of the opposition by knowing they have the edge in the contested situations.

Pressure is your key to success here, and starving them of the easy ball down back, forcing the side to kick long and exposing its lack of height out wide cause the turnover ball and allow the side to keep the pressure high, they have come unstuck at their ability to handle multiple entries.

I would suggest mirroring the Geelong method of playing an extra in the midfield and stopping the outlet ball, and forcing them to kick away from the contest to give possession back, their transition defence takes a while to organise and that’s your key if you can stifle the flow from the centre.