The Preview | Round 7 V Essendon
Written by Ari Stamatakos
The Season So Far:
Both sides couldn't have been more opposite heading into 2021. The Blues were making a charge into the top 8 and going to establish themselves as a genuine contender for years to come. Whereas the Bombers were bottoming out, losing Adam Saad to, ironically, the Blues. And going very heavy with the draft picks, with 3 in the top 10, as well as acquiring young star Archie Perkins from the Giants, it was a season of rebuilding for the Bombers it looked like.
However, we sit here, on the cusp of round 7 and the Blues find themselves below the Bombers on the ladder, with Essendon sitting it 12th place and the Blues one place below them in 13th. The question has to be asked, how on earth has this happened?
The Blues two wins so far this season have been games which they should win. A comprehensive victory of the Dockers in round 3 and the closer the comfort win against the Gold Coast a week later. Essendon started the season 0-2, and with a game against the Saints the week later, many thought it would be 0-3 in pretty brutal fashion. However, the Saints did not rock up on that Saturday afternoon at Marvel and the Bombers romped home to a 75 point victory. Anzac Day was the setting for the next Bombers win, they ran over the top of the Pies in the last term as they got up by 24 points.
It’s not more the wins that need to be focused on, it's the losses. It’s fair to say that Essendon weren't expected to win many games this year, so any win that they get means a hell of a lot more. Whereas the Blues are expected to win more games then they lose and beat the teams which they are challenging for the 8 with, so any losses against those sides are magnified 10-fold. This was the case with their game against the Pies, poor effort all round saw them go down by 21 points and get their second loss of the season, which should've been their first win.
The Old Firm Derby of the AFL, two massive clubs going at it, it's huge no matter where each team is on the ladder. Very few will enjoy this game, the stress will be too much, the tension at the MCG will palpable and both sides will *hopefully* bring their absolute best for what set to be an absolute blockbuster at the G on a Sunday arvo.
The Last Time They Met:
The last time these two sides met was in what could've been a bouncing Saturday night, but instead it was played in front of an eerily empty MCG. Essendon were undefeated at the time and the Blues had just come a very impressive victory over Geelong, so it was a vital game for both.
The low scoring event started with back to back goals from the goal line, first from Levi Casboult, then shortly followed by the perennial goal sneak Eddie Betts who gave the Blues an 11 point leave. Carlton lead was cut to 5 points at quarter time, before the Bombers took the 5 minutes into the 2nd through back to back goals. The Blues answered back through 2 of their own including one from Mitch McGovern. This lead to 4 unanswered Essendon goals from halfway through the 3rd to early in the last gave them a 12 point lead in the last and the game seemed all but done as the Blues were struggling to get momentum back. However, 2 flashes of brilliance from Marc Murphy, hitting up Jack Martin to kick his first, then hitting up Levi who kicked his 3rd and subsequently leveled the scores. The Blues managed to scrap a point, before David Cuningham marked 40m out, slight angle… His kick just fades left and the Blues need to hold on to a 2 point lead. From that subsequent kick-in, a 50 metre penalty against Betts sent Adam Saad to the centre square (it was more like 55-60 metres but ok). His spiral fell onto the chest of Jacob Townsend who went back, kicked long form 50, looked pretty good, but touched on the line by Liam Jones forehead and the Blues managed to scrap a victory by 1 solitary point.
The players who got the Blues over the line on that night was Sam Docherty (32 disposals, 90% efficiency, 8 rebound 50’s), David Cuningham (28 disposals, 6 inside 50’s, 8 marks), Levi Casboult (3 goals, 9 marks) and Michael Gibbons (25 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles, 5 score involvements.)
Team Stats Breakdown:
The most obvious metric to look at when you analyse this match is Tackles. So much has been said this year in the media about tackles and pressure around the contest, and this facet of the game has cost the Blues dearly, especially in games where they could've won. Whereas the Bombers, have been nothing short then expositional when it comes to tackling and pressure. Their tackle differential of +18.2 is the highest in the competition by a considerable margin, with the next best being +8.2, displaying in spades the ability for the Bombers to dominate via their intense pressure. This is also backed up by their pressure factor being 186, the second highest in the competition. They average the highest amount of tackles per game (70.5), as well as this, they don't get tackled very often, with their tackles against being 52.3, the 5th best in the league.
That last point does not spell good for the Blues, as their average tackles being the 5th worst in the league with 51.5, their tackle differential being the second worst in the league with -9.2 and their pressure factor being at 173, ranked 16th in the league. The Blue’s have been lambasted by the media and fans alike for their lack of pressure, especially early in the season, and should they not improve on this, the Bombers will unfortunately run rings around the Blues. The Bombers intense pressure and the Blues tendency to get tackled more than most (tackled the 4th most times this year on average, with 61.2) would be something that the Blues would be worrying about coming into the game.
One facet of the game where the Blues can, and should dominate is the clearances. The Blues average of 39.5 clearances per game ranks the 3rd most in the competition, whereas the Bombers ranked the 3rd worst for clearances in the competition with an average of 31.7 and have lost the clearance count by an average of 5.2 - ranked 16th in the competition. The Blues love the centre clearances more than anything as they rank 4th for centre clearances with 13.7. What is more impressive for the Blues, is that they have scored 14.7 points from centre bounce chains - the third most of any side. One plus for the Blues, is the poor form Zac Merrett seems to have against the Blues. He averages 22.4 disposals against Carlton, his worst against any side. His form this year has been very good, he ranks 2nd at Essendon for Clearances, contested possessions and ranks 1st for Uncontested possession.
“Key” Matchup:
This game will be won and lost in the midfield, and the two best midfielders from either team will battle it out to see who can carry their team over the line. Sam Walsh and Darcy Parish. Both very good players who will have a major say in which way this game goes.
‘Walshy’ is having a career best year by a country mile, and that says something because his first 2 years were nothing short than exceptional. His 30.5 disposals, 19.2 uncontested possessions, 80.3% disposal efficiency and 24.5 effective disposals all rank elite amongst his fellow midfielders and are all better then his career averages to date. Something that has impressed many through these first 6 rounds is his drastic improvement in his kicking. His 8.3 effective kicks is testament to that, as well as the fact that his kicking efficiency of 69.4% is 14% better than last season and ranks above average in the competition (Kane Cornes looking at you). His clearance work, whilst not being as good as Patrick Cripps, is still a major contributor for the dominance that the Blues have at the contest. His 11.5 contested possessions, 2 centre clearances and 5.7 total clearances all rank second for the Blues. He is able to show his speed and intelligence around the ground with his 3.7 stoppage clearances ranking first for the Blues. All these clearances and contested possession metrics rank above average in the competition.
Parish has really hit form in recent weeks. Since moving into the midfield in round 3, Darcy Parish has recorded 33 clearances - ranked equal first in the competition. Whilst Parish doesn't collect as much of the ball as Walsh, he does get the ball out of the contest more. His 6.7 average total clearances ranks elite in the competition, his 3 centre clearances and 3.7 stoppage clearances both rank above average. He also, however, does not use the ball as well as Walsh, Parish’s 65.8% disposal efficiency, 6.7 effective kicks and 51.3% kick efficiency all rank below average in the competition. This is one area of the game where the Blues need to try and expose him, limit the amount of clearances he gets and make him use the ball under pressure more.
Each player has their respective strengths and each team will be looking to use those strengths to their full advantage to get the best out of their star player and give them the best chance of winning the game
Predicted In’s & Out’s
In’s: Luke Parks
Out’s: Levi Casboult (OMI)
