The Preview | Round 6 V Brisbane

Written by Ari Stamatakos

The Season So Far:

Both sides sit surprisingly 2-3 heading into Saturday Afternoon’s clash at Marvel Stadium, both sides are desperate for the 4 points after relatively poor starts to the season. The Lions have come off an impressive win in the wet against the Bombers, whereas down the east coast. The Blues were disappointing in their effort to dethrone Port Adelaide as they went down by 28 points. 

In the absence of the presence of the Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale in the midfield for most of the opening 5 games. Jarryd Lyons has stepped up to become their premium midfielder. Averaging 14 contested possessions, 4.2 stoppage clearances, 6 tackles. Ranking elite in the competition. And his 27.2 disposals, 5.8 clearances, 9.4 ground ball gets 23.4 pressure acts all rank above average in the competition. His drastic improvement has him leading the Lion’s midfield for all but two of those stats, with the other two he ranks second, only to Neale. 

Carlton have been led by their young prodigy Sam Walsh, in his third year of footy, he is taking this club and putting it on his back, constant elite performances game after game at only 20 years of age. He is putting up elite numbers for disposals (30), as well as this, he is using it in an elite way, averaging elite for Disposal efficiency and (81.3%) effective disposals (24.4). Whilst he isn’t as dominant around the stoppage as someone like Patrick Cripps, he is still averaging very good numbers for all clearance stats. Centre Clearances 2.2, Stoppage Clearances 3.6 and Total Clearances 5.8, all ranking above average for the competition. 

Both sides have had both very good wins, and very bad losses this year so this is bound to be an intriguing encounter. Two teams who were once seen as the next to take the competition by storm, oh how times have changed.  

The Last Time They Met:

It was an emotional one this, a legend of this football club laced his boots for the last time, Kade Simpson’s final game and the Gabba was the setting on a wet Saturday Night. A dead rubber for a Carlton perspective as finals was now not achievable after a poor month of footy, and for the Lions, they had top 2 secured, it was the minor premiership they were aiming for. 

The Lion got the first on the board quickly through Lincoln McCarthy, but that was quickly responded to by 2 goals in succession from Marc Murphy and Levi Casboult. Carlton were bringing the pace to one of the flag favourites and it was pleasant to see after a month of very disappointing footy. The Lions, however, like good sides always do find a way to respond as they responded with 2 goals of their own. But just like that the Blues hit back with two of their own through Harry McKay and Jack Newnes, this ended a very impressive quarter as the Blues took a 4 point lead heading into quarter time. The second quarter the Lions turned it on big time and showed why they would eventually do deep into final football. Cam Rayner got things kicked off nice and early and Mitch Robinson kicked two in a row against his former side to blow the margin out to 16 points. Not long after Charlie Cameron kicks from beyond the arc and replicated by Daniel Rich minutes later to give them a 28 points at half time. Carlton needed to find inspiration from somewhere and where else would they turn to then to Kade Simpson. Picked up the ball 55 out and kicked a helicopter which floated through for one of the feel-good moments of the season. As the rain started the pour, the scoring started to dry up, as each goal became to be invaluable. The Blues got the next one through Tom Williamson and they were coming. Rayner kicks one on the 3 quarter time siren to deal a massive blow to the Blues heading into the last term. They put the Blues on the canvas early in the last with Keidean Coleman and the Blues needed something to get over the line in this one. Goal for goal in the last was broken by 2 straight McKay goals which put them within striking distance with a couple of minutes to go. However, time ran out and the Blues just fall short against Brisbane by 16 points.

The best for the Blues on a disappointing night were Matthew Kennedy (23 disposals, 5 marks, 6 clearances) Sam Walsh (31 disposals, 5 inside 50’s, 6 clearance) and David Cuningham  (14 disposals, 9 tackles, 3 inside 50’s) 

Team Stats Breakdown: 

One criticism that was cited as to why Carlton were so poor against Port Adelaide was their horrendous ball movement. Well if Carlton fans thought one game was bad, that has been the story of the Lions season. Their 69.5% disposal efficiency and 68.2 clangers per match both rank as the worst in the competition. This has come off the back of manic pressure which has been put on this Brisbane team. In the 3 games, they have lost this year, they have been tackled, 81, 56 and 51 times, these are all above the average tackle count for the Blues this year which is 48.6. The Blues need to provide pressure at the contest and allow the Lions to win the contested ball, which they have more than any other side, bare 4, this season with an average of 143.2. If they can win the ball at the contest then they shouldn’t be worried about the Lions dominating the outside ball, as their average of 190.8 uncontested possession ranked the worse in the league by some considerable distance. The Lions and the Blues are very similar in one KPI. The Blues have one more inside 50 this season than Brisbane (278-277). However, the aforementioned disposal efficiency indicates that the frustration of Blues fans have, which is that play is breaking down at half-forward, it can only be worse for the Lions. Who, incidentally, have the fourth worse marks inside 50 in the league with an average of 9.2, compared with the Blues average of 12.6

“Key” Matchup: 

With both sides being heavily based around the contest and contested possession work, the key matchup will be fought in the middle of the ground, however not with the people you might think. Oscar McInerney and Marc Pittonet will battle it out all over the park to give their team first use, they both are more important to their respective teams than you might think. 

Firstly starting with Pitto, many would think that once Tom De Koning is back fit, that is a natural change to make, however, Carlton would be doing themselves a massive disservice by doing that. Pitto is third in the competition for hitouts this season with 156, averaging 31.2, showing that he is up there as one of the better tap ruckmen in the competition, always throwing his weight around and competing at every available opportunity…. just ask Scott Lycett. He ranks 4th for both hitouts to advantage (55), as well as clearances amongst ruckman (22). Showing how invaluably he is to this Carlton teams when it comes to the clearance and stoppage work. With this saying, he is also crucial for Carlton when attacking as he ranks 2nd in the league for starting scoring chains (18) amongst the whole competition. 

On the other side of the centre square, the big ‘O’ will provide one hell of a challenge. Willing to through his lanky frame around, this will be a different type of challenge for Pitto, something he isn’t quite used to. Whilst he hasn’t put up the stats this year that Pitto has, he provides something different. He can go back and play as a spare behind the ball, something Pitto hasn’t done before, or has had done to him. He does this at a good level before as he ranks above average for contested marks (1.5) and spoils (3.5), as well as this he ranks average for intercept marks (1.5) and Intercept possessions (2.5). 

Predicted In’s & Out’s

Ins: Liam Stocker 

Outs: Tom Williamson