The Preview | Round 4 V Gold Coast
Written By Ari Stamatakos
The Season So Far:
Both sides sit 1-2 after the first three rounds and both have a lot riding on this match on Saturday night. The Blues were disappointing in the first two rounds but rebounded brilliantly against Fremantle last week, so they will be looking to keep that good momentum going against a Gold Coast side who have been super competitive all three rounds and are playing brilliant football.
The Suns will be without an experienced Ruckman, as Jarrod Witts has gone down with a very unfortunate ACL injury. This leaves Marc Pittonet to have a massive impact on the game. He is currently third in the competition for starting scoring chains (13), showing his importance to this Carlton team, he can really make a statement against what’s going to be a young/deputy Gold Coast ruckman.
The Blues have unlocked a gem in Lachie Fogarty, it seems that it’s the third time lucky for Carlton when taking in Geelong's scraps, as the ‘Fog’ has taken this team to a new level. His ability to play deep in the pocket apply pressure, playing high half-forward acting as that connection between the midfield and the forwards or even playing in the guts himself winning clearances and adding much-needed speed to that midfield. His average of 22 disposals, 16.3 effective disposals, 4.3 tackles and 7 score involvements all rank elite amongst his fellow forward and is very slowly becoming a dark horse for recruit of the season.
For the Suns, a man who has broken Carlton hearts before, Jack Bowes, is really establishing himself as a very good player in the competition. Becoming a solid contributor at starting attack from defence and taking a forward and shutting him down, his stats fully show his development this season. Averaging 6.7 rebound 50’s, 19 effective kicks, 3.7 score involvements, 13.3 pressure acts and 2.7 spoils all rank elite in the competitions, barring spoils which ranks above average.
With Carlton’s aspirations for finals, this match acts as an absolute must-win, a non-negotiable should they want to play footy in September. Regarding the Suns, they probably won’t think finals is a real goal this season, however, they would still want to ensure that they keep their run of competitive footy alive and create fear in other teams when they see them in the fixture.
The Last Time They Met:
Indigenous round was the setting for when these last two sides met, the wet and slippery conditions caused it to be a low scoring affair up in Darwin, as an inaccurate Blues got over the line against a tired Gold Coast side by 33 points.
The dewy conditions proved to hinder the player’s ability to score, as the first and only goal of the first quarter came from Michael Gibbons at the 8th-minute mark. The second term proved to be more free-flowing as a Harry McKay goal early was quickly cancelled out by Izak Rankine who kicked the Suns first of the night. The Blues kicked away in a red-time frenzy as 3 goals in 4 minutes last in the first half saw the Blues extended their lead to 25 points at half time. The game closed back up in the third as Lachie Weller’s goal was responded to in a trice by Ed Curnow who kicked Carlton’s 6th goal of the game. Similar events unfolded in the last as the Blues kicked 1 goal 7 behinds to the Sun’s 1 goal 1 behind. A Newnes goal sealed the game for the Blues midway through the last.
Carltons best were Patrick Cripps (23 disposals, 10 score involvements, 8 clearances) Ed Curnow (19 disposals, 1 goal, 6 tackles) Michael Gibbons (19 disposals, 2 goals, 10 score involvements.
Team Stats Breakdown:
For the Blues, the notion of the game plan is to win the contested footy and then lock the ball in the front half of the ground, this game plan has been successful to some extent this season, and the KPI’s tend to agree, as well as disagree with how successful it has been. Carlton has recorded a post-clearance pressure factor of 148, which is ranked last in the competition, for a team that wants to lock the ball in post-contest and contested footy, this is a metric that will definitely need to improve in order to achieve the maximum it can out of this game style. The second part of this game style is locking it in, and this comes down heavily to the defence and how they are able to build the wall around the forward 50 to stop the ball from coming out. This is helped by Liam Jones being ranked 3rd in intercept marks this year with 13.
The Gold Coast has put pressure on like very few this season, an area of the game in which Stewart Dew wanted to address in the offseason and they have. The Suns have won the tackle count by 8.3 per game this season, ranked third in the AFL. As well as this, they have won the groundball gets by 10.3 per game this season, again ranked third in the competition. They are third in the league for tackles inside 50 (39) and lead the competition for tackles overall (178). This is perhaps the pressure that the Blues want to apply themselves, so it will be interesting to see how they are able to handle the intense game style that the Suns will put up on Saturday Night.
“Key” Matchup
The Key forward is back, this means that every key forward needs a key defender to beat. Let’s talk about ‘H’ and his potential matchup with Sam Collins, as well as perhaps the more interesting matchup of Ben King and Jacob Weitering.
King has kicked 10 goals so far this season and has been the lynch pin up forward for the Suns. He goes at 76.9% accuracy at goal which ranks elite in the competitions, as well as his 4.3 shots at goal a game which ranks elite also. All of his set shots have come from a 40° angle or larger, which means all of his shots have come from relatively straight in front, very few have come from tough angles. This is something which the Blues defence and midfield will look to identify and force the ball to wider positions inside 50. He has also gone at 33% from shots 50 metres out or longer, again this is something that Weitering and the Blues defence will look to exploit. King and McKay both have one thing in common, they love the ball out in front. They both have 6 marks on a lead so far this season, ranking them in the elite of the competition, they both are the prototype key forward which will dominate the competition for years to come.
‘Weiters’ hasn’t quite lived up to the heights of his 2020 season (granted, 3 games in, I know), but despite this, he has been a very solid contributor down back for the Blues this season. He leads the competition in spoils (35), fully showing how he is able to get a fist into every contest and make his presents felt. As well as being elite on the defensive side, on the offensive side of the game, he very rarely falters. He is second for key defenders for rebound 50’s (23) and his average of 339.9 metres gained ranks elite in the competition for key defenders.
Looking at the other end of the field, ‘H’ is having the season of his life, his 13 goals so far this season sees him sitting third on the Coleman medal ladder at the start of round 4 and considering his 5 behinds against the Dockers, he well and truly could have been leading it. Despite kicking more goals than King, he has been far less accurate, with his 56.5% accuracy ranking just average in comparison to his fellow forwards. From his 17 set shots this year, he has gone at 65% accuracy, an issue that has plagued him from early in his career, his lack of or inconsistent set shot routine. ‘H’ has been pushed much wider for his goals than in comparison to King, 8 of his set shots have come from an angle of 40° or smaller, which means he has had a lot more shots from tougher position than King, is that Harry’s fault for leading there, or the kicker’s fault for kicking the ball to him there? Marking has been his everything this year, in all the marking metrics he ranks elite and this has elevated him to the absolute next level. He ranks 7ht in the league for contested marks (6), 1st for marks inside 50 (17) and 17th for marks on lead (6).
His direct opponent will probably be Sam Collins, who despite not being a household name, he is a very capable defender who will give Harry a real challenge should he not be 100% into the game. His average of 7 pressure acts and 7 spoils both ranks above average in comparison to his other key defenders, as well as his 2 intercept marks per match shows that he is consistently being a good, solid performer for the Gold Coast who rarely gets beaten heavily, and why it will prove to be a tough assignment for Harry should Collins go to him.
