The Preview | Round 18 v Collingwood
Written By Ari Stamatakos
The Season So Far:
These two great sides have had a year to forget. On the Carlton side of things, finals expectations were squandered before the bye as poor performance after poor performance meant that a recently starved fanbase were once again restricted as their side let them down once again. On the Collingwood end of the spectrum, many critics knew that Collingwood were going to have a drop off after three seasons of finals football. A tumultuous 2020 off-season saw the departure of their president and best midfielder with little to nothing in return. With all of this considered, no one expected the drop off to be this dramatic. They sat 3-9 with the wooden spoon not looking out of sight. This saw the end of Nathan Buckley tenure at the club and in came Robert Harvey who in all honesty, hasn't done much better. The key players this year for either side has been undeniably Sam Walsh and Brodie Grundy. These two both lead their clubs in AFL ranking points and considering that at one point, these were the only two players who were worth watching for either side, it's not hard to see why. Whilst David Teague probably won't get the sack as a result of a loss, with the external review looming over his head, a win would go a long way in securing his future, as these are games in which you have to win.
The Last Time They Met:
It was round 2 and both fans were blissfully unaware about their sides' cataclysmic season to come. Both sides were coming off losses and were looking to get their season properly started on a Thursday night blockbuster.
The Pies started the stronger of the two sides, as goals from Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliot and Jordan De Goey opened up an 11-point lead halfway through the first. Despite some brilliance from Michael Gibbons to sneak one home from the pocket, and Zac Fisher’s dancing feet to set up McKay for his first, the Pies took a commanding 18-point lead at the first break. This lead was extended within the two minutes as De Goey found space inside the Blues forward 50 not once, but twice and the Blues were on the canvas early. The Blues needed to find something quickly, and Gibbons added to his early individual brilliance with a goal of the year contender to get the game back on the Blue's terms. This was added to by a brace in a trice by Jack Martin whose goals brought the margin back to 7 points. However, the Blues couldn't sustain the dominance for much longer as the Pies kicked 3 of the next four goals to push the margin to 20 points at the main break. And the misery was intensified early after the halftime break as the Taylor Adams miracle toe-poke from the boundary put the Pies 27 points up and the game looked all but lost. Until the mosquito fleet, 2.0 gave the Blues life as Lochie Fogarty and Zac Fisher both kicked goals to swing the momentum back on the Blues side. It took 10 minutes until the next goal where a bombardment of inside 50 amounted to nothing for the Blues as they had free kick after free kick denied by the umpires. Until Harry McKay got rid of Moore and kicked his third to get the game back under 2 kicks. It was 9 points at the last break and all Blue fans believed that their side could will themselves over the line. However, like what we have come to expect from this team, they fell away in the last quarter. As the pies kicked 3 goals to 1 in the last and sunk the Blues by 21 points on a Thursday night at the MCG.
The Blues best that day were Sam Docherty (24 disposals, 87% efficiency and 9 marks) Lachie Fogarty (21 disposals, 4 tackles, 4 clearances and 4 inside 50’s) and Sam Walsh (29 disposals, 86% efficiency and 5 clearances)
Team Stats Breakdown:
Both sides have pretty bleak and near unrecognisable game styles which is evident when you look at the stats. The Blues don't rank high on nearly any meaningful KPI, which is even more concerning when you look at how freely the opposition is allowed to play the game on their terms. The Blues are tackled more than any other side in the competition with an average of 62.4 against, this is a show of a team that is uncertain of a game plan, taking that extra half-second too long because they don't know what they are meant to be doing or where their teammates are. They also conceded the second most amount of clearances per game with 38 which is again indicative of a side who, despite the quality they have in midfield, don't know what they are doing because of an inconsistent or flaky game plan.
On the Pies side of things, one aspect of their game in recent weeks which has greatly improved is their ability to lower the eyes and find a man inside 50. This was evident against the Tigers where 70 of the 87 points came from set shots, the most of any other team. Another stat that is indicative of this is that games involving the Pies, have had on average 25 forward half stoppages per game, the fewest of any side. This shows a team that can use their bigger forward to good effect by kicking the ball to their advantage, giving them the best chances at taking a mark, rather than having to bring it to the ground and hope for their smalls to do all the work. Collingwood have had a radical change in game style since the Harvey era so expect to see a very different game tactically than what we saw in round 2.
“Key” Matchup:
The news that Patrick Cripps is injured and won't play against the Pies, this allows Paddy Dow to stand up and prove his class on the big stage. The midfield battle will be crucial but specifically, Paddy Dow vs Taylor Adams. Whilst they might not play directly on each other, the impact that these two players will have could go a long way in determining the outcome of the match.
Since returning to the side, Paddy Dow has elevated to levels which we all knew he was capable of. His ability to burst out of the contest and play of instinct is as good as anyone on the Carlton list and he has finally fixed up his disposal’s efficiency, an issue that plagued him for nearly his whole career. His standout in these months of games was that first quarter against the Dockers. In the first term against Fremantle, Dow had 11 disposals, 9 contested touches, 6 clearances and 2 inside 50's. This elite quarter of football showed everyone that the ability is there, they want to succeed is there, he just needs to find it on a more consistent basis, and if he does that, he will prove all the doubters wrong. As previously mentioned, the absence of Patrick Cripps will mean that the onus on Dow to succeed and stand up in a pressure cooker environment is massive. He will be without his skipper to look to for guidance, so this is his time to stand up and deliver.
Looking across from him will be Taylor Adams, hell-bent on stopping any influence that Dow could have, whilst having some as well. While Adams isn't having as good a year as previous, he is still proving his class in a pretty diabolical Collingwood team. He ranks elite for Centre Clearances, Stoppage Clearances and Total Clearances with 4, 3.6 and 7.6 respectively. This has him in the top 5 for the Pies in all those metrics. With Grundy looking to feed him the ball at nearly every opportunity, should Adams get his hands on the ball and dictate the pace of the game, the Pies will have one hand on the 4 points.
