The Preview | Round 18 V Brisbane

Written by Joseph Addamo

Carlton’s 2020 season comes to a close this Saturday, in what is sure to be a matchup filled with emotion from all 22 players in Kade Simpson’s last game of his career. This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for Carlton v Brisbane at the Gabba, Saturday the 19th of September (7:40pm AEST Bounce).

THE SEASON SO FAR
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After their disappointing loss to the Adelaide Crows, Carlton’s late, fading finals push was all but squashed. The Blues were no match for the effort and intensity of the Crows, and found themselves too far back to mount another miracle comeback win. If this lack of effort translates into the clash with Brisbane on Saturday, there may just be riots on Lygon Street by the Carlton faithful. While the Blues have nothing to play for from a competitive standpoint, Kade Simpson will run out for his 342nd and final game of football. Embodying the spirit of Carlton right to his core, any less than the dedication ‘Simmo’ has shown to the jumper and sending him off in style would simply not be good enough. For the Lions, they have locked in a Top 2 spot and will play their first final at the Gabba. This will by no means change their intent. Momentum heading into this finals series is critical for the Lions to achieve their first premiership since the 2003 three-peat side. They will smell blood in the water if a lackluster Blues outfit stalls to begin Saturday’s contest, and will look to punish, as they have done all season.

THE LAST TIME WE MET
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Source: foxsports.com.au

Brendon Bolton had coached his last game for Carlton after their Round 11 loss to arch-rival Essendon, and David Teague had stepped in as caretaker coach. The Blues ledger read 1-10 while the Lions had won 7 of their first 11 matches. If the task seemed didn’t daunting enough prior to the game for the Blues, it only looked worse when they found themselves goalless and 37 points down early in the second quarter. Lachie Neale (31 Disposals, 9 Marks, 1 Goal) could not be contained in the middle, and the Blues couldn’t get near the ball. Mick Gibbons (23 Disposals, 3 Tackles, 2 Goals) got the Blues started with their first goal at the 12th minute mark of the second quarter. From this point on, Carlton kicked 11 of the last 14 goals to stun the Lions in a comeback for the ages. Brisbane found themselves without ball in hand, chasing Carlton for the rest of the afternoon with their slick ball movement and attacking flair. It was Patrick Cripps that stole the show as the architect for the Blues’ eventual 15-point win. It was one of the more dominant halves of football seen from a midfielder. The Blues skipper put his team on his back to kick 4 second-half goals, to go with a total of 38 Disposals, 7 Marks, 8 Clearances, 9 Score Involvements and 460 Metres Gained. Choo, choo! The Teague Train was firing up.

TEAM STATS BREAKDOWN
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Saturday night’s clash will give viewers an attacking affair if both teams’ 2020 stats are anything to go by. Both sides move the ball forward in very similar fashion. Neither are high possession sides (Brisbane ranks 15th and Carlton ranks 17th for Disposals). They look to pinpoint passes by foot rather than overlap and link through handball chains. In fact, Carlton is ranked 2nd and Brisbane ranked 1st in Kick-to-Handball Ratio in 2020. Both have strong marking targets up forward, which allows them to execute this high-marking low-possession style of game. Expect the likes of Harry McKay, Levi Casboult, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay to feature heavily for both sides.

The comparable way in which both sides structure up translates into their ability to enter forward 50. Both have strong tall forward targets, with help at ground level by their small forwards. Carlton’s Inside 50 dominance has been covered extensively throughout the course of the season, ranking 4th overall. Brisbane ranks 3rd. The difference between the two lies in their Efficiency Inside 50. While Carlton is 10th in the competition for shot efficiency based on forward 50 entries, Brisbane rank number 1. The Lions’ 50.1% shot conversion from Inside 50 entries allow them an abundance of opportunity to mount scoreboard pressure. However, both the Lions and the Blues are wayward when it comes to Goal Accuracy (the Lions are the least accurate goalkicking side while the Blues rank 16th). Whichever side can turn these goalkicking fortunes while continuing to penetrate with repeat Inside 50 entries will go a long way to getting the win on Saturday.

The midfield battle is sure to be an exciting contest. Both sides rank 5th for Clearances at 30.9 per game on average for 2020. Carlton’s Patrick Cripps ranks 2nd overall for Clearances among any player, averaging 6.2 per game. Lachie Neale is 7th in the category averaging 5.3 per game. Both are also 6th and 7th respectively for Contested Possessions. Neale is supported by Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage, while Cripps will continue to be flanked by Ed Curnow and Sam Walsh. The Blues’ midfield group will need to bring that ‘Simmo’ intensity or they may find the engine room of the Lions too hot to handle.

KEY MATCHUP: ED CURNOW V LACHIE NEALE
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Undoubtedly, the 2020 Brownlow Medal is going to Lachie Neale, it’s just a matter of formality now. While his influence during his time at Fremantle was noticed, living in the shadow of Nat Fyfe rarely does anyone favours for their own CV. Since his arrival at the Lions, he’s not only become their midfield leader, he’s become the premier midfielder of the competition. While his numbers for this season are impressive, they explode when extrapolating out for 20 minute quarters. In a non-COVID season, he would be averaging 34.3 Disposals, 469.8 Metres Gained, 15.4 Contested Possessions, 11.9 Ground Ball Gets, 7.4 Score Involvements and 6.6 Clearances. If the last contest between the Blues is anything to go by, expect Ed Curnow to put the heavy tag on Neale. Most of Neale’s damage was done in the first half, going into half time with more than 20 disposals and a goal to his name. Teague shuffled the deck at half time and Curnow was assigned the role. The impact of Neale in the second half was the polar opposite to the first, with Curnow tightening the leash on Brisbane’s most influential midfielder. Not only did Curnow nullify Neale’s impact, he stepped up himself and played an important role in the 52-point Carlton turnaround. He finished the game with 30 Disposals, 9 Tackles, 8 Clearances, 7 Score Involvements and 5 Inside 50s. From the outset, this matchup looks as though it’s going to pick up where it left off. Let’s hope Ed remembers to empty his pockets after the game so he doesn’t take Lachie home with him.

Source: couriermail.com.au

KEY MATCHUP
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The club have already ruled out Sam Docherty (calf) and Zac Fisher (shoulder) for the final game of the season. ‘Doc’ came off the ground early in the Crows game after re-aggravating a calf niggle from earlier in the week, while ‘Fish’ suffered a bruised shoulder in an attempted tackle. Unfortunately for Docherty, this means he will not run out one final time with his half-back running mate, Kade Simpson, in his final game. Caleb Marchbank has already been ruled out for the season, so Lochie O’Brien seems the logical replacement for Docherty. He played against the Crows along the wing, but is a natural half-back choice if available. This move may give an opportunity for Matt Kennedy to return to the Senior side. An inclusion like Kennedy would make sense for the Blues considering the midfield grunt of the Lions. Jack Martin has been labelled available also, and seems the likely and logical inclusion for Fisher.

OUTS Prediction: Sam Docherty, Zac Fisher
INS Prediction: Jack Martin, Matt Kennedy