The Preview | Round 17 V Adelaide

Written by Joseph Addamo

After a thrilling 39-point comeback vs Sydney in Round 16, the Blues will be looking to consolidate in a fading, last-ditch miracle for a Finals push. This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for Carlton v Adelaide at Metricon Stadium, Sunday the 13th of September (1:05pm AEST Bounce).

THE SEASON SO FAR: With 8 games decided by under 10 points, Carlton fans have been taken on a rollercoaster of emotion in 2020. It didn’t get any less anxiety-inducing as they fought their way back from 39 points down against Sydney in Round 16 for their 7th win of the season. It equals their win record from 2019 in a COVID-affected season. No doubting that the Blues have improved in 2020, however there are glaring issues still plaguing the club at the business end of the season. Adelaide’s season could not have been worse at this point. They find themselves in 18th position on the AFL ladder and staring at the number 1 pick at this year’s AFL draft for the first time in club history. Taylor Walker will be looking to break the club goalscoring record in this weekend’s clash and pass Tony Modra as the Crow’s all time greater goalkicker. With stirring back-to-back wins against the Hawks and the Giants, amid the return of Rory Sloane and Brad Crouch, Carlton will need to bring their best to knock off a rejuvenated Crows outfit.

Source: bigfooty.com

THE LAST TIME WE MET: The Teague Train was almost ready to arrive at Princes Park as these two teams clashed at the MCG in Round 19, 2019. The match got off to a flyer, with Tyson Stengle and Taylor Walker kicking the opening two goals for the Crows. However, the Blues clawed their way back quickly and maintained momentum for the rest of the afternoon to lead at every break. Patrick Cripps put on a Herculean performance, gathering 39 Disposals, laying 7 Tackles, kicking a goal and having the third-best all-time Clearance game with 19 total. Brad Crouch got to work for the Crows having 30 Disposals of his own and a team-high 534 Metres Gained. Levi Casboult and Taylor Walker were the leading goalkickers for the day with 3 apiece. With the Crows mounting a last quarter fightback, Carlton were looking to seal the win as they peppered the Crows defence with inside 50s. Will Setterfield gathered and snapped truly to give them the breathing room needed and the Blues emerged at eventual 27-point victors.

TEAM STATS BREAKDOWN: Carlton continues to dominate Inside 50 entries in 2020, ranked 4th overall in the AFL. The Crows are on the opposite end of the spectrum ranked 18th averaging only 35.7 per game. This has translated to the Crows having the lowest scoring average of any team in the competition in 2020. Carlton also ranks 9th for Marks Inside 50 averaging 8.7 per game as well as 4th for Tackles Inside 50. The game plan has been one-dimensional for the Blues at times; get the ball forward for their tall timber to Mark, or apply pressure at ground level to lock it in if that fails. If Carlton’s forwards bring their A-game on Sunday, the Crows defence will have their hands full.

One area of Carlton’s game is their efficiency in disposal. They find themselves averaging over 60 Turnovers per game, the 7th most in the AFL. In recent weeks, these clangers for the Blues have come across their half-forward line, most evident in their first half vs. Sydney. The Swans numerous times took advantage of errant kicks and handballs in Carlton’s attacking half and transitioned from defence to their own attack quickly. Much like the 1st ranked Sydney, the Crows rank 6th for Rebound 50s per game. If Carlton cannot clean up this area of the game, Adelaide will look to pounce, much like the Swans, and score in bunches in transition.

Across the season, Carlton are ranked 5th in Clearances, led by the leading Clearance player in the competition, Patrick Cripps, flanked by his peers in Ed Curnow, Sam Walsh and Marc Murphy. The Crows are ranked 16th, however looking at the season in totality does not highlight Adelaide’s improved Clearance work as a catalyst for their recent wins. It coincides with the return of Midfield bull Brad Crouch, lending some much needed support to his brother Matt Crouch and Rory Laird. They had 31 and 34 respectively against Hawthorn and GWS, +5 and +8 on their season average. Brad Crouch contributed with a combined 12 Clearances across both games. Underestimating the contested power on this Crows Midfield unit could spell disaster for the Blues.

KEY MATCHUP: Usually this segment is reserved for a single player spotlight. However, when looking at where the game will be won or lost this weekend, the midfield stands out for both sides, and you can’t go past the Crouch Brothers’ influence. Across their careers to date, they have averaged 54.4 Disposals, 9.7 Clearances, 9.5 Tackles and 21.9 Contested Possessions per game across 214 combined games. With Brad sidelined numerous times this season via injury, Matt has steadied the shaky Adelaide ship with his consistency, tenacity and work ethic in the middle. He is averaging 25.7 Disposals per game (5th in the AFL) and 15.9 Uncontested Possessions (7th), while ranked 1st for Adelaide in Tackles (4.9), 2nd for Pressure Acts (18.6), 2nd for Clearances (4.4) and 2nd for Ground Ball Gets (6.5). When you combine their averages, the Crouch Brothers lead all-comers at Adelaide in 2020 in these categories. The question for David Teague is whether or not he sends Ed Curnow in to tag one of them, or whether he places his confidence in his Midfield unit to go head-to-head with the Crouches, Rory Laird, Ben Keays and Rory Sloane.

Source: afc.com.au

INJURY REPORT: Jack Martin (calf) came from the ground during the third quarter of Carlton’s clash with Sydney, however has apparently “pulled up quite well”, according to Director of High Performance Andrew Russell. He will be a test to play against the Crows. There were rumblings during the week of a calf strain also to co-captain Sam Docherty, yet no official update on the Injury Report from the Blues. Carlton will be hoping his availability is given the green light prior to team lineups being confirmed. Michael Gibbons (groin) and Eddie Betts (managed) look set to return for the clash, however Marc Pittonet (managed) may find it difficult considering Tom De Koning’s Round 16 performance against the Swans.

OUTS Prediction: Owies, Martin

INS Prediction: Betts, Gibbons