The Preview | Round 16 V Sydney

Written by Joseph Addamo

With 3 games left in the 2020 AFL season, Carlton will be looking to finish a frustrating campaign strongly to garner any momentum possible heading into the off-season. First up is the Sydney Swans after their big win against Melbourne in Round 15. This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for Carlton v Sydney at Metricon Stadium, Tuesday the 8th of September (8:10pm AEST Bounce).

THE SEASON SO FAR: It was more of the same for Carlton in their Round 15 clash with the Giants and epitomized their almost-there 2020 season. After competing for three quarters and executing a well-constructed defensive game plan against the hard-running Giants, the Blues fell away when the pressure lifted in the last quarter. It was the 7th game for the Blues decided by under 10 points, holding a 4-3 ledger in those matches this season. With a season long injury to their superstar ‘Buddy’ Franklin and Josh Kennedy missing much of the action with an injury of his own, Sydney have found themselves in a mini rebuild. This has not stopped the Swans from taking some big scalps in recent weeks, with wins over GWS and Melbourne highlighting their ability and will to compete week-in-week-out. Underestimate the Swans at your own peril, Blues. Their young stars can smell blood in the water.

Source: heraldsun.com.au

THE LAST TIME WE MET: The Teague Train was gaining momentum heading into the Round 17, 2019 clash. Carlton were 2-2 under Teague, and a boilover at the SCG was looming. It was an arm-wrestle from start to finish, with the Blues maintaining a lead for the majority of the match. Matthew Kreuzer dominated the Hitouts with 45 on the day, giving Ed Curnow and Patrick Cripps premium service to combine for 17 Clearances between them. Jake Lloyd led all disposal-getters on the day with 34 to go with a game-high 771 Metres Gained. But it was the former-Swan-turned-Blue Nic Newman with a BOG, 3 Brownlow vote performance that shone in his new colours. He gathered 32 Disposals at 88% Disposal Efficiency to go with 13 Marks, 12 Intercepts and 711 Metres Gained. A late Harry McKay goal ensured the Blues would walk away with the chocolates, prevailing as 7-point winners for the first time at the SCG since Round 6, 2011.

TEAM STATS BREAKDOWN: As has been the tale for 2020, Carlton has dominated Inside 50 entries in most games, ranked 4th overall in the AFL. The Swans, on the other hand, rank 15th as they have struggled to get the ball consistently into their forward 50. With the tall timber of Harry McKay, Levi Casboult and Mitch McGovern, the Swans will have their hands full in the aerial contest. The Blues have a +1.5 Marks Inside 50 advantage over the Swans. Callum Mills and Jordan Dawson average 3.1 Intercept Marks between them on the half-back line for the Swans this season. The Blues need to find more accuracy and efficiency going Inside 50 to curtail their ability to read the play.

It could be a scrappy affair considering the execution of both sides around the ground. Carlton rank 18th in Disposal Efficiency while Sydney rank 16th in the category. Carlton’s clear advantage is in their Clearance work, ranked 6th with a +2.2 advantage over the Swans. An improvement in execution to complement this midfield grit is where the game could be won for the Blues. Limiting their turnovers and capitalizing on the Swans errant ways with ball in hand will go a long way to deciding this result. 

The pressure applied from both sides when the ball gets to ground level Inside 50 has been consistent this season. Fans will be treated to a high pressure game when the ball enters either attacking area, with Carlton ranked 4th in Tackles Inside 50 for the season while the Swans are ranked 8th. The Swans also boast the best record in the league for overall Tackles this season, while the Blues are 8th in this category. Carlton will need to match the intensity of the Swans not only in the Swans attacking half but around the ground in order to stick with this Sydney outfit on Tuesday evening.

KEY MATCHUP: If last week was the ‘Zac Williams Cup’ then there’s no guesses as to which ‘Cup’ both sides are playing for this week. Tom Papley, if not for his long-winded contract clauses and the Joe Daniher nightmare negotiation in 2019, could have easily found himself in Blues colours for this match. Papley officially nominated Carlton as his club of choice during last year’s trade period, but the deal never came to the fold. Leading the Coleman Medal race for much of the early part of 2020, it is no secret that Carlton will be looking to snare Papley in the upcoming off-season yet again. Papley ranks 3rd for Goals per game among General Forwards, 4th for Score Involvements and 8th for Marks Inside 50. His Pressure Acts, Tackles and One Percenters are not dominant features of his game, with his uncontested work and gathers his strong-suit that can cause nightmares for sleeping opposition defensive units. With Lachie Plowman under an injury cloud, Kade Simpson and Tom Williamson might share the load again as they did on Toby Greene in their Round 15 loss to GWS. They held Greene to 1 goal between them and limited his ability to wreak havoc on Carlton’s defence.

Source: adelaidenow.com.au

INJURY REPORT: Patrick Cripps undoubtedly looks run down. With his body copping constant abuse at stoppages for the majority of his career, it may be time to give him a rest. This is easier said than done for the Carlton Coaching Staff, with Cripps’ desire to play week-in-week-out heavily documented throughout his career. The Blues came away unscathed from their GWS clash, however the fitness of Lachie Plowman and Michael Gibbons after sitting out last round’s match will be monitored heading into the Sydney game. If both are to come back into the Senior side, Cam Polson and Matthew Cottrell may be forced out. Paddy Dow was luckluster in the Giants clash, not able to build on his Reserves form at Senior level again. He may be offered another opportunity to prove himself, but with David Cuningham and Matt Kennedy waiting in the wings, could find himself under selection pressure this week. Caleb Marchbank was a test with ‘general soreness’ last week, and he too may be putting his hand up for his first Senior appearance in 2020 after overcoming several injuries.

OUTS Prediction: Polson, Cottrell, Cripps, Dow

INS Prediction: Kennedy, Cuningham, Plowman, Gibbons