The Preview | Round 11 v Sydney
Written by Nathan Sepe
This Round 11 clash v Sydney celebrates Sir Doug Nicholls Indigenous Round, a tribute to our game’s great Indigenous culture around the league and the diversity included within the game. The Baggers have had a fantastic Indigenous Guernsey designed by Laura Thompson, who created the jumper in consultation with some of our own Indigenous players in Betts, Jones, Williams, SPS, Prespakis and Plane. The Guernsey depicts all of their mob names a great tribute to recognising the diversity and Indigenous culture of our football club.
Last week against the Hawks, the Baggers got the job done, unconvincingly and harder than it needed to be but ultimately enough to add another four points to the tally. The task this week much harder, against a quickly revamped Swans outfit who see themselves sitting sixth with six wins and four losses. The Swans are coming off a narrow two point loss to the Dockers over in Perth last weekend and will be looking to turn their form back around back at their home ground at the SCG.
The Swans have surprisingly turned around this season, with the inclusion of some great draft picks boosting the side’s ability to run and find athletic options around the ground. The Swans are the ‘Carlton Dream’ in relation to expectations placed upon the side at the start of the season, with a quick rise to the top, toppling all expectations placed upon the Swans, coming off a deplorable season for Sydney’s standard, finishing 16th, worse than 2019 in 15th. The Swans have done what the Blues have failed at each time this season, beating top eight sides. With wins against Brisbane, Richmond away from home and Geelong, it is hard to write off the Swans as a proper final contender this year. However like every football team, flaws are evident, failing to beat the middle placed teams in Gold Coast, Fremantle and GWS.
Since Round 3 the Swans have failed to kick a score over 100, averaging 121 points in the first three games, compared to the last seven rounds with an average score of 74 points per game. Fair to say the Swans have been found out, along with their new draft picks who went under the radar to begin the season. The Swans will be without young guns Erol Gulden, Braden Campbell and experience in Hickey and Blakey, although will be boosted through the inclusions of Sinclair and McInnerny.
Statistical Overview
Two insanely similar sides statistically. When you go down to the smallest details of the two sides, both have an average games played of 50 and an average squad age of 24. The Swans play almost identically to the Baggers, with both side averaging 226 kicks per game, favouring the kicking game over the handballing game with the Swans averaging 144 handballs per game in comparison to the Baggers 134 per game. So where does the differential come in Sydney’s game style and why they have been effective in their game this year? Speed.
The Swans are notorious for their pace in their midfield and half-forward line, carried on from the past and still to this day is their best utilisation through the middle of the ground. Speed was ultimately their way of breaking us open in last season’s game, with our boys being unable to match their speed for the first half of the game. You could go as far as classifying the Swans as downhill skiers; their game plan counters opposition’s turnovers and punishes them through quick strides down the middle to the reliable Buddy Franklin who will kick the goals if you give him the ball. Whilst the Swans have not as effective with their inside 50 entries at 42% they make it count with 57% shooting accuracy in comparison to the Baggers 50%. The dangers of Papley, Franklin, Heeney and Hayward mean opportunities for the Baggers at our end need to be taken if we are to stick with the Swans.
Last Time They Met
Round 16 2020 – Carlton 57-52 Sydney
Cue the Matthew Cottrell heroics on what was quite a deplorable performance from the boys to start the game. Come the end of the season finals was out of the equation for both these sides, however expectation was still placed on the Baggers to beat these bottom sides to show some end of year progress. The Baggers started the worse they could have possibly started conceding the first seven goals of the game going down by 39 points early in the second quarter.
A Zac Fisher classic snap sparked the comeback for the Baggers, scoring 53-9 after this point, a Matt Cottrell goal and trademark celebration securing the win in the dying minutes of the match, on an extremely random Tuesday Night. On the night our best included Walsh, with 25 touches at 84% disposal efficiency and one goal, Cripps with 17 touches at 83% disposal efficiency and also one goal and finally in the backline Weitering who had 15 kicks at 87% kicking efficiency and eight intercepts.
Opposition Breakdown
Forward: For the Swans, the forward line stands out as their most versatile area on the ground, with their combinations of smalls and talls a really difficulty for oppositions backlines to match up on. Franklin, Heeney, Hayward and Papley line the versatile athletic forward line and the Swans look to hit their forwards up on leads in comparison to longer bombs into the forward line. The Swans also have a heavy reliance on their midfielders to help crumb off any loose balls in the forward line, which is a dangerous proposition for the Baggers if our mids are unable to keep on their toes and keep close contact with their opponents when the ball goes down in the Swans forward line. More than obvious our defensive transition needs to be alert. Our lack of transition has hurt us against the top sides and a set plan needs to be the basis of our game plan.
Midfield: The Baggers match up quite well to the Swans midfield in terms of bodies and heights. The Swans have a quick, powerful midfield involving Mills, Florent, Rowbottom, Parker and Kennedy. Much like the Baggers, they will try to break open the middle through centre clearances and stoppages and find an option out wide through kicks. With their main target of Buddy, the Swans midfield predominantly push along the wings of the ground to favour Buddy’s swinging set shot he likes to take. It is important for the Baggers to transition across the ground and pile the numbers around the ball to stop Sydney’s transition hitting targets. Pressure is key, as seen with Sydney’s last couple of games they do not always cope well under pressure and find difficulty transitioning with their quick ball movement. Our big bodies need to show physicality and go in hard for all contests. We stick to this and the Swans will get tired and find their transition difficult.
Defence: A quite small defensive line for the Swans, this leaves the door wide open for Harry to take full advantage and expose the holes left by the Swans. The Swans backline includes Hewett, Rampe, Lloyd, Cunningham, McCartin and Dawson ad has a strong focus on quick transition out of the backline to punish turnovers, similar to what Hawthorn did to us last week. The Swans main issue however is aerially as their full back are often unable to take down tall forwards. Our target should be Harry for most the game, however smart football would suggest our smalls roam around and create gaps to trick the Swans defensive line into thinking it is going to Harry. With the inclusion of Martin to our half forward line, there is an increase in pace and speed, some well needed speed that has only seem to come off half back in recent weeks. Alertness needs to increase from our forward line. It is imperative we place extreme forward pressure on the Swans and make it a real hard fought contested battle that can see us being effective with our inside 50 entries throughout the game.
