The Preview - Round 1, 2021.
Written by Ari Stamatakos
Pre-Season Expectations.
Both teams met or went above and beyond expectations last year, with Carlton being in the hunt for the 8 for most of the season and Richmond defying most odds and winning their 3 premierships in 4 years and going back-to-back in the process. If you listen to so-called ‘experts’, it would be believed that Carlton expectation is to ‘make the top 10’, whereas if you talk to many fans, its finals or bust, so Carlton will need to make a big statement against Richmond round 1. Down at Punt Road, a preliminary final birth is non-negotiable, and to go back-to-back-to-back is something that they may be looking forward to.
The Last Time We Met
This time last year, a strange feeling was felt around the MCG, as a fixture normally played in front of 90 thousand plus was played in front of an empty colosseum, where you could theoretically hear a pin drop. Both sides were shaken by the occasion, but Richmond were able to dust off the cobwebs first and ran out to a 31 point lead at the first change, which then extended out to a 50 point lead halfway through the 3rd quarter. This was cut to only 15 points halfway through the last, and the Navy Blue charge looked to be in full flight. However, unfortunately for all Blues fans, Richmond were too strong and ran out 24 point winners. Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia featured amongst the best from the Tigers, both kicking a goal and combining for 49 disposals proved to be a real difference-maker for the Tigers. Carlton couldn’t handle the speed, as Shai Bolton, Daniel Rioli and Jason Castagne all kicked 3 goals. Jack Martin announced himself to the Carlton faithful kicking 4 goals and driving the Carlton resurgence in the 3rd term. Patrick Cripps doing Patrick Cripps things by having 31 disposals, 10 clearances and 7 Inside 50’s.
Team Stats Breakdown
This game is the archetypal System vs System side rather than Stars vs Stars. Richmond has built their success on its solid foundations and a solid system, and it’s going to be Carlton’s job to stifle it. Whilst many will think that Richmond’s style is crash and bash inside forward 50’ and its system is only based on pressure, well the stats kind of say the contrary. In 2020, they were second in the league for overall marks (1435) and perhaps even more surprisingly, they averaged last for tackles inside forward 50’ (7.3). Third, in the league for Tackles (1083) and First in the league for Inside 50’s (986) are stats that you would most attribute to a Richmond style of play.
There is massive room for improvement for Carlton in 2021, they managed an 11th place finish without playing extraordinary football, and this can be seen with the stats. Finishing last for disposal efficiency at 67%. If you compare their stats with Richmond’s, 11th for total marks (1201), 3rd for average tackles inside 50’ (10), 10th in the league for tackles (899) and they are 8th in the league for inside 50’s (751).
For Carlton to have a chance in this game, they will need to stop the system of Richmond before they attempt to stop the likes of Martin, Tom Lynch and Trent Cotchin. The blueprint has been set by other teams and it heavily involves good ball movement, which Carlton have lacked in recent times.
Key Matchup
Two superstars of the competition will go head to head on Thursday night, maybe not directly, but both will be incredibly integral to weather their respective side will get up. Patrick Cripps and Dustin Martin will have a massive impact on the outcome on Thursday night. Two different types of midfielder yet such similar impact. Cripps, the contested bull beast will be the driving force behind the clearance work for the Blues. In 2020, he was 7th in the league for average contested possessions (11.8) and 1st for centre clearances with 3.2 - with a +0.8 on the next best in the league. 3rd for overall clearances at 5.9 as well shows his importance to Carlton, with the next best being Ed Curnow with 4.2.
Martin provides a whole different avenue for impact for Richmond, he does have a nous to gather contested ball, but he does his most damage inside forward 50. The most goals from a midfielder in 2020 with 22 with a +5 on the next best Patrick Dangerfield. He appears in the top 10 for both score involvements and goal assist. If he doesn’t have an impact on the scoreboard, he will make an impact with the ball, he was 2nd in the comp for forward 50 ground ball gets with 37. With all this saying, he still does have a big impact when he’s in the guts, totalling 40 centre clearances last season.
Whilst they might not be playing directly on each other, each time they come into contact it will be must-see. They both have the aura of anticipation whenever they both get the ball will create compelling viewing and the effectiveness, they both go at, whether it be inside 50 or in the guts, it’s all but certain that if either player has a standout game, they’ll give there their side the best chance of winning.
Pre-Season Injury Report
Levi Casboult - Knee - "We expect him to be available if everything continues on the track he's been showing us."
Charlie Curnow - Knee - On track for a return in the second half of 2021.
Tom De Koning - Back - " He's back running and moving well, he'll start doing ball work next week. We're excited with how he's going."
Brodie Kemp - Foot - "He's just about to get out of the boot... Back running over the next 2-3 weeks."
Caleb Marchbank - Calf - "We're really happy with the way he's moving. We just need to make a decision on when we think he's ready to play AFL footy." Early in the season.
Mitch McGovern - Back - Likely to miss Round 1.
Harry McKay - Ankle - Test for Round 1.
Jack Newnes – Ankle - Test for Round 1.
Nic Newman – Knee - "He won't be available in the first 3-4 weeks of the season but after that, I would expect to see him back going again."
Sam Philp - Hip/Groin - "He's looking more powerful. We'll see him very early in the season."
