The Preview | Carlton v Fremantle | AFL Round 3, 2021
Written By Ari Stamatakos
The Season So Far:
At the start of the season, if you had said that one side would be 1-1 and the other would be 0-2, many would’ve thought that the Blues would have 4 points to their name, however, the Dockers have shocked some with their incredible win over the Giants, while the Blues floundered in their attempt to beat a gettable Collingwood side.
Nat Fyfe will be absent from Sunday’s game with a concussion, which he suffered in that win against the Giants. It’s not like their midfield will be any weaker as Caleb Serong, Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw have stepped up big time. These three young guns have run the dickers midfield and will prove to be a real problem for the Blues on Sunday. They all rank in the Dockers top 5 for disposals this season and allow the likes of Fyfe, David Mundy and eventually Michael Walters to play with freedom and in an expressive nature.
For Carlton, it’s been the little blokes which have done a bit of a carry job for the Blues so far in 2021. Sam Walsh, Lachie Fogarty, Zac Fisher and Micheal Gibbons have arguably been the Blues best players in the first 2 rounds, with Walsh running the midfield with an injured Patrick Cripps continuing playing and the small forwards, along with Harry Mckay have kept the Blues in the hunt for the first 2 rounds.
For the Blues, it’s a do or die match, win the game and your back in town, lose and the season is done for, history shows that if you start 0-3 you probably don’t make finals. Especially after the pathetic display against the Pies, the Blues must start hot and win the game convincingly to get the fans back on the side. For the Dockers, if they can win again, then they will be right in the hunt for finals, should they lose, it will probably just be a bump in the road and it wouldn’t be a shock if they bounce back well.
The Last Time They Met:
The last time these two teams met, well, we all know what happened. A scrappy, low scoring affair at Optus Stadium ended when Jack Newnes arose from the ashes, deep in the pocket, after the siren, thousands of fans booing but he kept his composure and nailed the best after the siren goal ever.
The game started horribly for Carlton as the Dockers kicked the first 3 goals and took a 19 point lead into quarter time. The Blues first came through Levi Casboult and that was quickly added to by a debuting Matt Cottrell whose celebration was arguably better than the goal itself. A string of goal for goal was broken by Harry Mckay who kicked his first to bring the margin down to 2 points at 3 quarter time. An agonising last quarter saw chance after chance goes begging for the Blues, as ‘H’ and Liam Jones both had set shots to put the blues in front, but both were squandered. This leads to the aforementioned Newnes goal after the siren to sink the Dockers in a famous victory for the Blues.
The best on that day for the Blues were Ed Curnow (33 disposals, 10 clearances) Sam Walsh (7 clearances, 5 inside 50’s) Jack Newnes (kicking the best goal after the siren ever)
Team Stats Breakdown
A theme around Carlton’s games this season is that the pressure without the ball has been near non-existent. 11 tackles inside 50 this season and just 78 overall, both ranking the lowest in the competition. This accompanied by the Blues recording a pressure factor of 160, once again, a pressure statistic which the Blues rank last in. David Teague has called for a statement regarding the pressure and for good reason, the Blues have lost the tackle count by 15 across the opening 2 rounds, this, again ranks last for the competition. With this saying, Freo have not lit the world alight when it comes to their pressure, as they only have 13 tackles inside 50 this season and 97 tackles overall. However, their ability to create goals and goal scoring opportunities from other areas of the ground have negated their lack of pressure.
The aforementioned avenue for goals that come freely for Freo is their ability to lower the eyes inside 50 and hit targets. They have managed 29 marks inside 50 this season, ranking 5th in the competition despite not having a particularly tall forward line. This is heavily aided by their ability to get the ball inside 50 and do it efficiently. Being ranked 5th for inside ’50s (115) this season as well as having a disposal efficiency of 73.2% just shows the ability that the Dockers have to turn inside 50’s into Goals and goal-scoring opportunities. When comparing this to the Blues, it’s night and day. Carltons 23 marks inside 50 and a mere 101 inside 50’s acts as further proof that the Blues are struggling to get the ball inside 50 in an efficient way, despite having 74.8% disposals efficiency this season.
The way Carlton are going to win this game is by putting pressure early, and hard. The young Dockers will come out firing, especially after their dominant win against the Giants last week. The Blues were nothing short of insipid lat on against the Pies and must rectify this against the Dockers this week or else there will be major consequences should they not get the job done.
“Key” Matchup:
The key matchup on Sunday afternoon will undoubtedly be whoever plays on Matt Taberner. Whether that be Jones or Jacob Weitering, if either of them gets the better of Taberner, then that will go a long way to stopping the scoring ability of the Dockers. Taberner has kicked 5 goals this season against the likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, Phil Davis and Nick Haynes, he has proved that he can do it against the best. Whereas Weiters and Jones have contended with the likes of Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, Mason Cox and Brodie Mihocek, they haven’t been as successful as Taberner has been so this will be a game of atonement for both the key backs.
Taberner has been clunking them left right and centre this year as he leads the competition for average marks inside 50 for forwards (3) and is 9th for marks inside 50 (3.5), showing the ability he has to be a big and good target for the Dockers inside 50. When comparing this to the Blues defensive stocks, no Carlton defender appears in the top 20 and surprisingly, Lachie Plowman leads Carltons intercept marks, ranking 12th with 7.
Should Taberner get a hold of the Carlton defence then that will give the Dockers a real big chance at winning this game. Should the Blues shut Taberner out of the game, then that one less defensive worry that the Blues need to pay attention to.
Team Changes
In’s: Jack Silvagni, Eddie Betts, Luke Parks
Out’s: Zac Fisher (INJ), Jack Martin (INJ), Tom Williamson (OMI)
