The Preview | Carlton v Collingwood | AFL Round 10, 2023

Written by Luke Cornell

History.

There’s not many Monday morning wake-up calls like this, with the Blues finding themselves matched-up against the old enemy this week in what’s bound to be a Sunday afternoon thriller…for all the right and wrong reasons.

Keep your cool, it’s the round 10 preview.

Better.

Most say you couldn’t write a start like this in season 2023, but he we are, nearly unfazed, but still full of support.

It’s an understatement, and probably a bit rude to AFL fans, to say last weeks 1st half at marvel stadium was not good.

Similar to the Blue’s recent form, it was a game of patches, riddled with emotions built on expectation vs ability.

That’s the basis for the preview this week. With emotions running high, and rightfully so, it’s time to step back and examine the Blue’s ability, and what we can expect this week.

It’s funny a thing, but analysing opponents week in week out actually puts into perspective how ripe and challenging a Carlton match-up actually is.

The Blues seem to hit their benchmarks in all facets, leading the league in marks and kicks whilst ranking top 3 in disposals, contested possessions and even effective disposals per game.

The engine room, both surprising and unsurprisingly, is running a muck, carrying these rankings through ball users in Captain Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh; who since his return has ranked elite in disposals, tackles, clearances, and handballs.

While there are significant stats and rankings at opposing ends of the ground, including ranking 3rd in intercepts per game, low rankings suggest what many players have actually come out and described each week as “a lack of connection”.

With bottom 4 rankings in i50s, tackles i50, and centre clearances, it’s clear there’s a discrepancy between absolutely smashing the basics at 100%, vs execution and willingness to play on our own terms.

These rankings align all too well with other bottom 4 rankings in turnovers and clangers, meaning that if anything the damage that’s been done has come from none other than our 23 boys in Blue, rather than a series of forced errors. Says a lot about a team who’s emphasis is on controlling the flow of the game.

No one could’ve expected to be expecting more out of a Coleman medalist, a Brownlow medalist, and a former Club BnF at this time of the year; yet the question around their performance this week lingers.

There’s been a lot of talk about what they could’ve done, but who says they can’t this week? This time last year fans were reeling that the loss of Jacob Weitering mid game against the Pies was the catalyst for the loss last year, while others thought that if Mckay got to his preferred spots with the help of a balanced forward line, the result could’ve gone the other way.

And the Skipper, who elevated for both encounters with the Pies in ‘22, who understands the mission every year against this mob, who knows that even if it is “just another game”, he isn’t going to play like it is.

It’s no secret that the dichotomy of expectation and ability is at an all time high with this playing group, but if as a club, as a culture, we can’t expect our group to go out and be better for all facets of that community, in the most anticipated game on the calendar, then we’ve all lost already.

Pretty good, no-cap.

Collingwood, is excitement personified.

The sheer-level of drive to lift in dire moments, and kill when the game is in their terms, it’s beautiful and terrifying all the same.

It’s not just speculation or hubris from one preview writer however, with the pies having gone 8-2 to start the season, plowing through the likes of Adelaide in Gather-Round, Sydney, St Kilda, and the bombers on Anzac Day (all in the last 5 games alone), the pies are on the trot; looking way too comfortable.

That doesn’t mean they’ve neccessarily been able to put away teams however, with an average winning margin of just over 20 points.

Mind you, it’s simply not their style of play to warrant a blow-out.

Contrary to the Blue's ability to excel at the basics, the pies rank 10th in kicks, 15th in marks, and 17th in rebound 50s; whilst also ranking 18th in opponent rebound 50s, which most data collectors suggests is the key to scoring big in the modern game.

Yet, it’s the little things that count when it comes to Collingwood…literally.

The pies rank top 5 in one-percenters, tackles i50, and intercepts, meaning that while they lose the ball frequently from inefficiency in front of goal, or lack of wins at the contest, you best believe they want it back as soon. as possible.

This type of play also compliments the pies ranking 2nd in the comp for score involvements, goal assists, and i50s per game. There is a clear focus on minimising the number of individual efforts in each game.

However, a few do stand-out.

Brayden Maynard, why do you have to play for Collingwood? While he doesn’t have any significant rankings coming into this week, Maynard continues to push his name into the conversation as one of the best defenders in the league. His grunt and kicking ability when transitioning or defending from his own 50 is top class, silencing his direct opponent each week while being the source for a lot of motivation that emanates throughout the Collingwood squad.

Tom Mitchell IS the recruit of the season. For a former Brownlow medalist to be contributing in such a levelled yet efficient manner for a premiership favourite is remarkable. Averaging 27 disposals at 79% efficiency, whilst ranking elite in clearances and tackles, Tom is one of 3 midfielders in the comp to be averaging such numbers, one of which wears the number 35 for the same team.

Nick Daicos is having a laugh when it comes to AFL football. At 20 years old in his second season, he’s top of the league in disposals, uncontested possessions and metres gained, while piling on four 40 disposal games in the meantime. The last player to average, rank and pile on these numbers in his second year since the stats have been recorded…Chris Judd.

The Pies are in good nick, no surprises here; is this week just another game against the Blues for them?

Predictions

This fan base has never been more defeated heading into a game like this, especially against our historic rivals.

It’s a battle of who can get the game on their own terms. If the issue with the Blues game is truly wired down to connection, then it needs to show by working for each other.

Make the unsustainable, sustainable, the Pies seem to do it each week.

I don’t think there’s doubt going into this week, if anything it really is just levels of anticipation and invetibility taking over.

We are not in good form. the pies are, it’s the middle of the season, this is a big game in a tough stretch.

These certainties take over, rather than expecting a worthwhile performance win or lose.

It’s a statement game for all the wrong reasons…but it might be the turning point of the whole season.

…but a goal in a half of football is nothing to carry over.

Pies by 24.

Are you happy now?