ROUND 14 BLUE ABROAD PREVIEW: CARLTON V COLLINGWOOD
Joseph Addamo
The AFL’s greatest rivalry comes to a head in Round 14, 2020, with the lure of Finals potentially on the line. This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for the Carlton v Collingwood clash at the Gabba, Sunday the 30st of August (3:35pm AEST Bounce).
THE SEASON SO FAR
For the first time since 2013, Carlton have a balanced ledger at the business end of the season. Collingwood, after a hot start to 2020, have shown signs of faltering among off-field indiscretions and an on-field injury list that seems to grow by the week. The game’s biggest head-to-head rivalry could not have come at a more appropriate time. The Pies have cycled through 39 players in 2020, the most of any team in the competition. Steele Sidebottom is the latest player to miss this week’s clash as he heads home to Victoria for the birth of his first child. However, the likes of Scott Pendlebury and Taylor Adams hold the Collingwood Midfield in elite status. While Brodie Grundy has had inconsistent form (only by his own standards), this trio can click at any given time, something the Blues should be wary of. Collingwood’s forward stocks have been hit hardest with absences to Jaidyn Stephenson, Brody Mihocek and Jordan De Goey the most notable. If Carlton’s Defensive unit (one that has not had any personnel changes for 7 consecutive weeks) can contain any threat that Collingwood’s makeshift forward line poses, it may be the catalyst for a big win for the ‘Baggers.
THE LAST TIME WE MET
Heading into the Round 8, 2019 clash, Carlton sat at 17th on the ladder with a 1-6 record after coming off a heartbreaking loss to Hawthorn the week prior. Collingwood, coming off a Runner-Up 2018, were flying, starting 2019 with a 5-2 record and placed as a firm flag favourite. The rebirth of a rivalry that had seemed to have lost its allure was soon to unfold in its traditional Saturday afternoon timeslot at the MCG. It was a tense back-and-forth affair for the majority of the game, with 9 lead changes in total. Patrick Cripps’ (35 Disposals, 14 Clearances, 7 Tackles, 9 Score Involvements) Brownlow credentials grew with another superhuman performance, while for Collingwood it was Tom Phillips (34 Disposals, 2 Goals, 646 Metres Gained, 11 Score Involvements) that led the Pies’ Midfield from the front. Carlton took a narrow 5-point lead into the final break, but soon found themselves at an 8-point deficit after two quick Magpie goals. Arguably, the moment of the match came soon after. A shimmy, a side-step and a long-range goal on the run from captain Patrick Cripps brought the house down, with two more goals following in quick succession. The euphoria didn’t last too long as the Pies stormed home, kicking 5 unanswered goals to come out as eventual 19-point winners. It’s a loss that has left a sour-taste in the mouths of Carlton supporters for more than a year, and one that they want retribution for this Sunday.
TEAM STATS: HEAD TO HEAD BREAKDOWN
It will be a contrast of playing styles that viewers are treated to on Sunday afternoon. Collingwood are ranked 1st for Disposals in 2020, holding a +41.5 advantage in this category per game over the 17th ranked Blues. The Pies are the most handball-heavy side in the AFL, which ranks them 17th in Kick-Handball Ratio. In contrast, the Blues rank 2nd for Kick-Handball Ratio as they look to utilize the edge of the corridor and wings to break lines with long-drives forward by foot. Carlton will look to stop the quick handball chains through the middle of the ground as Collingwood transition the ball forward out of defence.
With one of the premier Ruckman of the competition in Grundy, it’s no surprise that the Magpie Midfield are given constant looks at Clearances and disposals out of stoppages. They rank 2nd for Hitouts this season. While Carlton have not been afforded the same luxury with injuries to both Matthew Kreuzer and Marc Pittonet throughout the season, they still rank 5th for Clearances, led by the number 1 Clearance player in the AFL, Patrick Cripps. While Grundy is ranked 1st for Hitouts this season, his below-average Hitout-to-Advantage rate of 26.6% means that opposition teams are afforded their fair share of opportunities to ‘shark’ his taps out of stoppages. Considering Carlton’s contested and clearance work this season, this is clearly an area where the Blues can look to take advantage.
Carlton’s clearances have afforded them opportunities at entries Inside 50 all season, ranking 5th for average entries per game, while also ranking 6th and 7th respectively for Tackles Inside 50 and Marks Inside 50. Levi Casboult has been the main threat in the air for the Blues. He’s the 9th ranked player for Marks Inside 50 and 4th ranked player for Contested Marks around the ground this season. Meanwhile, at ground level, since his return in Round 11, Zac Fisher has ranked 8th for average Contested Possessions, 12th for Tackles Inside 50 and 5th for Disposals among Forwards. Joined by Michael Gibbons, Eddie Betts and Jack Martin, Carlton’s balanced forward structure can be damaging to opposition teams not ready or willing to match their effort and pressure.
KEY MATCHUP
With so much Midfield talent at their disposal, it’s easy to gloss over the influence of some of Collingwood’s individual stars. None have been more influential or consistent as Taylor Adams for the Pies in 2020. He leads Collingwood for total Disposals, is ranked 8th overall in the AFL for Contested Possessions, 3rd for Clearances, 10th for Tackles and in the Top 25 overall for AFL Player Ratings. His importance for Collingwood has only been emphasized further since the injury to Adam Treloar in Round 10. Since then, Adams has averaged 29.3 Disposals, almost 1 Goal, 4.3 Tackles, 5.8 Clearances and 13.3 Contested Possessions from 82.8% game time. The absence of Sidebottom will no doubt play a role in the overall impact that Collingwood’s Midfield group could have on the game. However, Adams’ control and influence as their leader in the middle in recent weeks is up there with the best in the competition. With Scott Pendlebury by his side, Carlton cannot afford to take this depleted Midfield unit for granted. Ed Curnow will have his hands full again, presumably in a run-with role alongside Adams. Curnow’s ability to nullify Adams impact in the contest will be crucial to Carlton’s fortunes in this match.
INJURY REPORT
Carlton finished last round’s win against the Gold Coast with a clean bill of health. With Mitch McGovern already ruled out, Tom De Koning looks set to continue his run of form and keep his spot in the side for the third consecutive week. Caleb Marchbank missed last week’s Reserves game due to “leg soreness” but has been labelled a test for this week. He’s shown glimpses of his prior form and ability at Reserves level this season after overcoming a neck injury sustained late in 2019. Expect him to continue building his match fitness for at least one more week at Reserves level before a Senior call up. Paddy Dow once again staked his claims for a return to AFL action with an exceptional 12 Clearances in the Reserves. David Cuningham returned to the Reserves squad from a calf injury and looks to have a full training load this week heading into Sunday’s match. Matt Kennedy has also recovered from a corked quad against Fremantle and could make his return to the Senior side this week. Carlton’s form in recent weeks makes it difficult to drop anyone from the 22 that played against the Suns in Round 13. However if Kennedy, Dow and/or Cuningham are to return, Matthew Cottrell may find himself in an unlucky position of being omitted.