ROUND 13 BLUE ABROAD PREVIEW: CARLTON V GOLD COAST
Joseph Addamo
After one of the greatest wins in recent history for the Blues, can they take advantage of a fatigued Suns outfit on Friday to square the season ledger at 6-6? This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for the special Indigenous Round 13 Carlton v Gold Coast clash at TIO Stadium, Friday the 21st of August (7:50pm AEST Bounce).
THE SEASON SO FAR
The Suns and the Blues have improved dramatically in 2020 in contrast to their inconsistent seasons of recent years. Stewie Dew has Gold Coast playing a competitive brand of football week-in week-out, with his core Midfield group of Hugh Greenwood, Touk Miller, David Swallow and Lachie Weller leading the charge. On the other hand, Carlton’s topsy-turvy, heart-in-mouth season has seen them grind out 4 wins to 2 losses in games decided by under 7 points, after Jack Newnes became the ultimate hero in Round 12. Both are still in the hunt for a Finals berth, with the loser of this clash potentially staring down the barrel of a season gone begging. Carlton are coming off a 6-day break after their emphatic win against Fremantle on Saturday, with 2 extra days rest over their rivals leading into this clash. Fatigue for the young Suns group may prove too much coming off a short 4-day break.
THE LAST TIME WE MET
It was Round 18, 2019, with the Blues coming off a stirring win against Sydney to take on a Suns outfit that had lost 13 games straight. Gold Coast’s previous win came against the Blues in a heartbreaker at Carrara in Round 4, where Jack Bowes won the game for the Gold Coast with 15 seconds remaining. Playing in front of the Carlton faithful on a Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium, the Blues led at each break by a consistent margin. It wasn’t a game of too many highlights, however Matt Kennedy starred, booting 4 goals for the day. Much like last week’s win vs. Fremantle, Ed Curnow (32 Disposals, 6 Clearances) led the way for the Blues out of the Midfield, while Touk Miller (27 Disposals, 11 Tackles) made his presence known in the contest for the Suns.
HEAD TO HEAD STATS BREAKDOWN
Carlton and the Gold Coast both prefer avenues to goal by foot, ranked 2nd and 4th in 2020 for Kick-to-Handball Ratio. While naturally ambitious in nature, this has had a heavy impact on the Disposal Efficiency of both sides, with Carlton ranked 17th and the Gold Coast ranked 18th in this category. If one of the two sides can improve in this area on Friday night, it may be the catalyst for the win.
The Midfield battle is the most likely area to decide this contest. Carlton are ranked 5th overall for Average Clearances while the Suns rank 9th. Patrick Cripps is ranked 4th for Contested Possessions and 1st in the AFL for Clearances this season, while Hugh Greenwood for the Suns is 3rd and 5th in these respective categories. Ed Curnow (ranked 17th for Tackles in the AFL) has had his fair share of tagging roles throughout the years, and we can expect to see him given the job to nullify Greenwood’s in-and-under impact this week.
Interestingly, both teams are bottom 5 in the AFL for Average Disposals, yet 6th and 7th for Average Inside 50, highlighting the long-kicking avenue to goal on limited disposals that both sides take. This game plan seems to suit Carlton moreso than the Suns, with a +2.2 Marks Inside 50 advantage over their opponents. Even if the ball comes to ground once Inside 50, Carlton’s 9.4 to 7.8 Tackles Inside 50 advantage highlights the forward half pressure the Blues have used all season to lock the ball in.
SPOTLIGHT: KEY MATCHUP
With Marc Pittonet looking “available to play” for the Suns clash, both he and Tom De Koning are set to have their hands full coming up against Jarrod Witts. Criminally underrated, Witts is putting together one of the better campaigns of his career. In his 8th season, the Suns’ 2020 co-captain is ranked 4th overall for Hitouts Per Game with a 47.4% Hitout Win % placing him in the Top 10 in the competition in this area. Witts is also ranked 1st for One Percenters amongst Ruckmen, highlighting his ability to follow up his Ruck-work with repeat efforts. This has assisted in placing him 4th for Total Clearances amongst Ruckmen, contributing to an overall 6th ranked AFL Player Rating for Ruckmen. De Koning, in contrast, is relatively unproven, playing just his third game in Round 12 as Carlton’s Number 1 Ruckman against Sean Darcy. ‘King’ finished the night with 21 Hitouts, 8 Disposals and 2 Clearances while showing poise and clean hands at ground level. Witts’ physical presence will be a challenge for the Carlton youngster, but looms as an opportunity that TDK can use to further his progression as the future of Carlton’s Ruck stocks.
INJURY REPORT: POTENTIAL INS & OUTS
Carlton came away unscathed against Fremantle with no official injuries reports; David Teague mentioned a potential corked quad for Matt Kennedy in the post-match but has not been reported as serious since. Marc Pittonet’s availability for the match is subject to a test but signs look positive as per the CFC Injury Report. With Mitch McGovern set to miss another 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury, Tom De Koning might be able to hold his spot as a Ruck-Forward helping ‘Pitto’ pinch-hit against Jarrod Witts while providing some added tall timber in Carlton’s forward line. Paddy Dow followed up his BOG Reserves performance against the Eagles with a game high 7 Tackles to go with 5 Clearances. He is again knocking on the door for selection but may find it hard to break through this week. David Cuningham and Jack Martin are both coming off calf injuries but look set to return on Friday night, potentially forcing out the likes of Josh Honey and Matthew Cottrell. Cottrell was impressive against the Dockers with a firm case for reselection, while Honey showed glimpses but not enough of an impact to warrant a second game if Cuningham and Martin are ready to go.