Round 12 Preview | Carlton V Fremantle
Written by Joseph Addamo
Can the Blues bounce back after two disappointing losses in the West to come away with the win against an exciting Fremantle outfit? This is your Blue Abroad Match Preview for Round 12 Carlton v Fremantle at Optus Stadium, this Saturday the 15th of August, 8:10pm bounce (AEST).
The Last Time We Met: Who could forget? Levi, the strength. Fisher, the deft touch. Murphy, the side-step and the banana. It gives any Blues fan goosebumps to reminisce on the Round 15, 2019 clash against Fremantle at Optus Stadium. Trailing by 29 points at the first break, the Blues, already without Captain Patrick Cripps, had lost Charlie Curnow early in the game to a knee injury. The afternoon looked to be a dour affair with rain threatening to dampen the spirits of Carlton fans even further. However, there was newfound hope under then Caretaker Coach David Teague, with the Blues eventually prevailing 11.13 (79) to Fremantle 11.9 (75). Carlton kicked four of the last five goals of the game with some Marc Murphy brilliance to kick the winner with 30 seconds to go sent Blues fans into a frenzy.
OPPOSITION REPORT: BREAKING DOWN THE LINESPlaying some exciting football under new Head Coach Justin Longmuir, let’s take a look at how Fremantle structures up across each of their lines.
Back Six: Luke Ryan has been the architect for Fremantle in Season 2020. Amongst Key Defenders, Ryan is 1st for Disposals, 1st for Kicks, 3rd for Intercept Possessions and in the top 10 for Intercept Marking. Working alongside Brennan Cox in the absence of Alex Pearce, with the likes of Nathan Wilson, Stephen Hill and Hayden Young providing dash off the half-back line, Ryan looks to release his Defenders and Midfielders through Rebound 50s and penetrating Kick-Ins. His work rate in acting as sweeper behind the football allows for Fremantle to take control of the contest if an Intercept is up for grabs. If Harry McKay and Mitch McGovern miss the Round 12 clash, long bombs into Carlton’s forward 50 could spell disaster with Ryan at the helm.
Ruck & Centreline: Nat Fyfe, Andrew Brayshaw, Adam Cerra, Caleb Serong – quality, quality, quality, quality. Enough has been said about Nat Fyfe, and if he swings forward as he has under Longmuir many times this season, Lachie Plowman looks to have his hands full (Fyfe is averaging just over 1 goal per game, with a total of 13 shots at goal across 7 games in 2020). With Fyfe resting forward, the emergence of Brayshaw, Cerra and Serong along with the veteran presence of David Mundy in the midfield, gives Fremantle dynamism when releasing the football from stoppages. Sean Darcy, while not the most formidable around-the-ground Ruckman, holds his own against some of the better Ruckmen in the comp with his physical presence. Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning need to bring the heat and run Darcy off his feet when the ball gets to ground level.
Forward Line: Only three players have kicked a goal in every game in 2020 – Tom Papley, Jeremy Finlayson and Fremantle’s Matt Taberner. Taberner is 4th for Total Goals amongst Key Forwards, 2nd for Contested Marks, 4th for Marks Inside 50 and Fremantle’s clear number 1 forward target. Taberner often sits deep inside forward 50 looking to lead out from the goal square, with the Fremantle forwards creating space in front for him to move into. Alongside Rory Lobb (the number 1 Contested Marking player in the competition), the two form a potentially dangerous threat in Fremantle’s attacking half. Luckily for Carlton, the emergence of Jacob Weitering (6th for Total Contested Marks amongst Key Defenders, 4th for Score Launches, 7th for Contested Defensive Loss % amongst players that have played 10 games or more) and Liam Jones (1st for Contested Defensive Loss %, 2nd for Intercept Marks amongst Key Defenders, 2nd for Total Contested Marks) hold Carlton in excellent stead to control the airspace around Taberner and Lobb.
PLAYER PROFILE SPOTLIGHT: ANDREW BRAYSHAW
Andrew Brayshaw has taken his game to another level in 2020. After a career night against the Hawks in Round 11 where he had 33 disposals at 84.8% Efficiency to go with 5 score involvements, he looms as a dangerous threat in the Midfield that should be a focus for the Blues. Unlike many Midfield bulls that tend to gain the most attention in modern football, it is Brayshaw’s ability to find the loose ball and penetrate with accuracy going forward that hurts teams – he ranks 3rd at Fremantle for Uncontested Possessions at 11.5 per game and 2nd for Disposal Efficiency amongst Fremantle Midfielders. Patrick Cripps and Nat Fyfe will likely go head-to-head in a mouthwatering Midfield matchup, leaving Ed Curnow as the most likely to be tasked with tagging Brayshaw for the majority of the day.
POTENTIAL INS & OUTS: CARLTON
Paddy Dow is coming on in leaps and bounds in the makeshift Reserves matches in 2020. Jack Martin left the West Coast game early with a calf injury which could open the door for Dow to make his return to the Senior squad and add some explosiveness to the Midfield unit. After a BOG performance this past weekend, he’s putting his hand up for selection in Round 12. Harry McKay has been under a constant injury cloud all season, with Mitch McGovern a potential test for the Fremantle clash also. If both are healthy, it is likely that Tom De Koning and Matthew Cottrell make way.
Prediction: Carlton by 19 points.