Richmond v Carlton | Round 1 Preview
Written by Nathan Sepe
After 207 days since the heart breaking finish of 2022, we find ourselves back at the start, ready to endure another season of either enthralling emotion, or simply frustration and disappointment of what could have been.
Whilst Round 1 can’t secure you a finals ticket, the expectation to start the season on a high, much like 2022, is there.
The Blues capped off their 2023 pre-season with a win over Collingwood, which featured a stronger side fielded, compared to the last practice match against the Swans, which saw the Blues convincingly beaten.
Whilst Carlton seemingly has the whole AFL world judging their performance on one side of the spectrum, Richmond on the other hand comes into 2023 with a question mark next to their name.
Still stacked with talent, the question of hunger in the side still looms, but having less hunger certainly doesn’t make them any less talented.
After the Blues snapped the nine-year losing streak in Round 1 last year, the Tigers will certainly be looking to take it back.
Opposition Analysis
Richmond continues to showcase they are a threat in every domain on the football field.
With the additions of Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, the Tigers are aiming to decrease the pressure on their aging veterans that have kept the Tigers in good stead over their success period.
Adding Taranto and Hopper to the midfield mix now allows Dustin Martin to play longer stints inside forward 50, as arguably the most dangerous threat for our backline.
Among Martin, Richmond’s small forward line consistently imposes as the biggest threat, seen in previous years, where Richmond’s offensive transition often causes a breakdown in communication and opens the forward 50 for the smalls to pounce on open space.
Shai Bolton is a well-known name after Round 14, stirring up the Blues’ faithful, which nearly came back to haunt him.
Bolton is the most dangerous small forward threat for Richmond, with his burst speed and agility on the wing and inside forward 50 creating difficulty for our smaller defenders to keep track of the open space inside defensive 50.
The pace of fellow small forwards Daniel Rioli and Maurice Roils Jr, adds another difficult task for our backline, who got a taste firsthand last year of how consistent Richmond’s inside 50 entries can be, with a total of 76 entries in Round 14.
Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch provide the tall targets for Richmond inside 50 and offer a reliable leading target that often gets rewarded as a result of productive space creation from the small forwards and quick transition by Richmond’s midfielders.
It’s hard to shut both of them out of the game, much like Charlie and Harry, however, restricting their movement patterns often shuts down Richmond’s ball movement entering the forward 50, which accounted for the 34% inside-50 efficiency they had in Round 14.
Richmond scored 11 goals on the Blues on both occasions in 2022. If the same result was to happen on Thursday night, it would be hard to see Richmond posting a winning score.
The midfield is the obvious key to winning and losing this game.
The result on both occasions in 2022 was defined by midfield domination, and whilst centre stoppage control isn’t key for Richmond, they will certainly ride the dominance in that area.
The recurring breakdown for the Blues is poor defensive on transition, always letting Richmond attack with speed and rebound off defensive 50 to seamlessly hit a leading forward or roving small forward.
Whilst improvement in the defensive transition area of Carlton’s game has been identified throughout the pre-season matches, it’s undeniably Richmond who causes the most stress and pressure on turnovers.
As strong as the Blues are in the midfield with talent, this game is unwinnable unless the entire 22 are collectively on the same page with defensive running and transition to counteract the speed and running patterns of Richmond’s explosive midfielders and half forwards.
Much like in 2022, the forward line will be our strongest asset of the night, with the most versatility to break open the forward 50 and create countless scoring opportunities.
A high offensive press from the midfield will place Richmond under the most stress defensively, which was the result of a high winning score in Round 1, with 11 different goal scorers on the night, with only one of those from Harry and Charlie.
The importance of the role of the smalls cannot be understated, with their ability to crumb and create a contest at the drop of the ball a key indicator of the productivity of the forward line.
The smalls will also serve as the first line of defence, as often the smalls have lacked the ability to produce strong defensive running and restrict and deteriorate Richmond’s offensive transition.
It’s an aging backline for the Tigers. The athleticism and agility of their full-backs need to be exposed by Harry and Charlie, who you suppose will have a greater impact on this game, given the 22 games they’ve had together since then.
What to expect
History has seen a familiar game in Round 1, with both sides battling it out for a lead for the first three quarters, and often Richmond storms home with a four or five-goal win.
Richmond struggles to claw back a lead, which relies on the Blues having a strong start or a strong period like Round 1 where the gap is maintainable.
A lead in the first quarter would be fantastic, but the reality is fatigue will let Richmond back in.
Having tactical systems set up to counteract Richmond’s offensive transition off a turnover or rebound is vital to restricting inside 50 entries.
Centre stoppage domination will likely be the prominent game plan that Voss will stick by, a plan that was behind multiple goal surges last year, but knowing how to restrict the impact of Richmond’s dominance in the centre stoppages will go a long way to slowing down their ball movement.
Predictions
It’s hard to see this being a blowout either way.
Both sides have something to prove, Carlton, proving they’re serious about taking the next step, and Richmond proving they can still contend.
This game will go down to the wire and with a hot night for footy, a slippery ball may make this a low-scoring affair that will go down to scoring efficiency.
