The Scouting Report - Geelong

Overview

Geelong comes into this game with a record of 11 – 4 and is well-positioned for finals. A side that is known for its ability to be very regimented under Chris Scott. They thrive on their ability to stifle opposition to limited touches via their ability to set up quickly behind the ball and close down space.

They move the ball with a great mix of Handballs & Kicks which allow them to move up in units, so in the event of a turnover, they are already well set up to defend any turnover. They are notoriously good at slowing tempo to suit them and show a vulnerability to teams that move it quick, which catches them out from their regimented structure. They genuinely offset this by playing an extra man up in the midfield, which allows them to stop early exits in stoppages and forcing you to kick it long to their strengths overhead, when in possession they genuinely keep the ball moving via handball chains outside of the contest and look to switch in the centre of the park around the final third opening up the 50. A side that will win by death via 1000 cuts via outworking you. The masters of making you play their way.

Projected starting positions

Backline

Pressure Defenders

Tom Atkins – Tackles = 3.9, Pressure Acts = 13.4, Ground Ball Gets = 5.8, Disposals Eff = 74%

Tom is generally a steady footballer, offering the ability to grab the crumps and work the ball out of the trouble, genuinely looks for the shorter option, and then move the ball out via chains. In defence, he is extraordinarily strong and stays close to his man very well.

Likely Matchup: Eddie Betts.

Projected Winner: Betts 57% - Atkins 43%.

Pressure Tendency: Kick to his open side

Jed Bews – Tackles = 1.7, Pressure Acts = 10.3, Ground Ball Gets = 3.1, Disposals Eff = 69%

Jed predominately looks to kick first and outmanoeuvre his man. Likes to roam around the ground too offering a good outlet around the ground using his running capacity and is very good on forwards who tend to drop deep for the ball and link with the midfield.

Likely Matchup: Matthew Owies.

Projected Matchup Winner: Owies 48%- Bews 52%

Pressure Tendency: Handball to side

Attacking Option Defenders

Jack Henry – Tackles = 2.0, Pressure Acts = 7.7, Ground Ball Gets = 3.6, Disposals Eff = 83.5%, Metres Gained = 197.7

Jack generally floats between being the 3rd tall and then looking to exit the ball out across half-back. For his size, he has great aerobic capacity and is very mobile. With 2.9 score involvements a game he displays good skill at turning defence into attack very quickly

Likely Matchup: Jack Silvagni

Projected Matchup Winner: Jsos 44%- Henry 56%

Pressure Tendency: Kick to the corridor

Zach Tuohy – Tackles = 1.4, Pressure Acts = 7, Ground Ball Gets = 4.6, Disposals Eff = 80.9%, Metres Gained = 446.2

No stranger to Carlton, Zach is the purest form of defender that can turn defence into attack, A constant threat with his ability to close down space and to clear his lines with a large boot on him. Strong defensively and also with his 2nd and 3rd efforts.

Likely Matchup: Lachie Fogarty

Projected Matchup Winner: Fogarty 41%- Tuohy 59%

Pressure Tendency: Long Kick down centre left wing

Tall Defenders Lock Downs

Jake Kolodjashnij – 1 on 1 Win % = 78.1%, Spoils = 4.8, Intercept Marks = 0.9

Jake is extraordinarily strong aerially and around the ground. Sticks very tight to his opposition and looks to either get his hands there and bring it to the ground or body his opposite man. Not the quickest player on the park but moves well enough to match it with most keys in the game. Often looks to body runners to allow Stewart space to run in and intercept a real decoy type defender.

Likely Matchup: Harry McKay

Projected Matchup Winner: McKay 69% - Kolodjashnij 31%

Pressure Tendency: Kick to the left side of the ground

General Tall Defenders

Lachie Henderson – 1 on 1 Win % = 65.3%, Spoils = 3.8, Intercept Marks = 1.9, Metres Gained = 314.8, Disposal Efficiency = 84%.

Another ex Carlton player, Lachie has aged like fine wine and looks to offer an intercept threat with Stewart, but also to keep him man stifled for scoring opportunities. Moves well, and has exceptional reading ability of the ball in the air. Utilises his spoiling skills to spoil to advantage and is often one of the outlets for a rebound 50, that Geelong use to turn Defence into Attack

Likely Matchup: Levi Casboult

Projected Matchup Winner:- Casboult 35% - Henderson 65%

Pressure Tendency: Looks to play it short, kicks often just outside the 50 of the corridor

Utility

Mark Blicavs – Disposals Efficiency = 79%, Spoils = 3.8, Intercept Possessions = 3.6, Pressure Acts = 15.3

Mark will be found all over the ground, Ruck, Midfield and Down the back, Offers an outlet for their ball retention game, with his size, his endurance, and his deceptive pace. Usually starts down the back and will be utilised predominantly to stop McKay as a foil for Stewart and to block for space.

Likely Matchup: Patrick Cripps

Projected Matchup Winner:- Cripps 61% - Blicavs 39%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks to the corridor when under pressure.

Intercept Tall Defenders

Tom Stewart – Disposals Efficiency = 83.2%, Metres Gained = 507.4, Intercept Marks = 3.1, 1 on 1 Win % = 80.6%

One of the premier defenders in the competition, a complete hybrid of a strong defender and attacking threat. Moves the ball quickly and concisely and uses his fellow tall defenders to create space for him to peel off his man and intercept the ball at its highest point. When he finds the ball Geelong are tough to beat and poses the ability to have the oppositions inside 50s become a primary scoring chain for the Cats.

Likely Matchup: Jack Martin

Projected Matchup Winner:- Martin 29% - Stewart 71%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks at all costs to his open side, close the space down and let him kick across his body and its turnover galore.

Midfielders - Wings

Isaac Smith – Disposals Avg. = 16.7, Kick Efficiency = 67.4%, Metres Gained = 452.9, i50 to Chance Creation = 36.2%

A veteran of the wing role, a pure winger in every sense of the word, looks to keep Geelong width and is a primary user to break away from stoppages once the midfield has done its work, has an exceptional long kick and can catch a forward press out in a blink of an eye.

Likely Matchup: Jack Newnes

Projected Matchup Winner:- Newnes 55% - Smith 45%

Pressure Tendency: Tends to bomb it into 50 if no options.

Sam Menegola – Disposals Avg. = 16, Kick Efficiency = 65.8%, Metres Gained = 327.8, i50 to Chance Creation = 20.5%

Floats around the ball, and across half-forward. Efficient in pressure and tackling, but also in his ability to change the game. Dangerous at both ends of the ground and can float in a defensive wing role, or as an out and out attacking threat

Likely Matchup: Paddy Dow

Projected Matchup Winner:- Dow 41% - Menegola 59%

Pressure Tendency: Handballs when in trouble

Midfielders - Stoppers

Mark O’Connor – Pressure Acts = 15.3, Tackles = 4.1, One Percenters = 2.6, Impact On Opposition = 14.7%

Tenacious and hardworking, has a good engine on him and can keep up with the majority of midfielders in the comp. Looks to be aggressive from the outset and doesn’t allow any free touches, Closes down space quickly to make every player earn their possessions.

Likely Matchup: Sam Walsh

Projected Matchup Winner:- Walsh 69% - O’Connor 31%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks ahead at all costs and gains territory.

Brandan Parfitt – Pressure Acts = 21.2, Tackles = 5.6, One Percenters = 1.1, Impact On Opposition = 17.9%

Like Matt De Boer, is a tackling machine, but also can impact the game himself. Often deployed this year in an anti-tag role. Where he demands the attention of the oppositions tagger as he combines burst from stoppages with elite vision. A real threat around contests and stoppages.

Likely Matchup: Ed Curnow Projected Matchup Winner:- Curnow 40% - Parfitt 60%

Pressure Tendency: Keeps the ball genuinely looking for options

Midfielders/Half Forwards – Game Breakers

Patrick Dangerfield – Disposals = 25.3, Metres Gained = 536.4, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 20.5%, Score Involvements = 6.5

The go-to man for the Cats, He explodes out of stoppages and around the ground, and this year played more in the hole between the centre and the forward 50, the team's main outlet to link up to the forwards. A real dangerous player who has great vision but sometimes is wasteful.

Likely Matchup: Zac Williams

Projected Matchup Winner:- Williams 49% - Dangerfield 51%

Pressure Tendency: Bombs it on the boot for territory.

Cam Guthrie – Disposals = 29.5, Metres Gained = 263.4, Inside 50s to Chance Creation = 14.9%, Score Involvements = 5.5

Another guy who floats from on the ball to the forward line. Utilising his grit and skill to take the game open. Loves to run out of the contest and hit up 50 as early as possible. His ability to float across the lines makes him a matchup nightmare.

Likely Matchup: Matthew Kennedy

Projected Matchup Winner:- Kennedy 42% - Guthrie 58%

Pressure Tendency: Gains Territory through the corridor.

Forwards – Utility

Shaun Higgins – Disposals = 19.5, Score Involvements = 4.5, Tackles = 3.4, Pressure Acts = 12.5

Spends his time now being the intermediary between the midfield movement and the forward line movement. The Mr. fix it of the side. Will drop deep to find the ball and play short sharp passes to his forwards. A real threat with his tenaciousness and experience.

Likely Matchup: Liam Stocker

Projected Matchup Winner: Stocker 44% - Higgins 56%

Pressure Tendency: Looks for the Handball Inside.

Forwards – Creators

Gryan Miers – Disposals = 15.4, Score Involvements = 5.1, Marks = 4.5, Goals = 1.1

Quick and skilful. He loves to drop deep into the hole between mid and the forward 50 or goes deep in the pocket looking for the dummy run to split the zonal defence. A crafty and creative forward who excels on the ground and his pace make it a nightmare to exit 50.

Likely Matchup: Adam Saad

Projected Matchup Winner:- Saad 55% - Miers 45%

Pressure Tendency: Holds the ball and looks to handball ahead.

Gary Rohan – Disposals = 11.3, Score Involvements = 5.3, Marks = 4.1, Goals = 1.8

Knows his way around forward 50, Loves coming from deep to find the space that Hawkins and Co leave him, Will also come deeper to be an intermediary for the midfield. Has the ability to kick a goal from just about anywhere on the ground a real threat for any defence

Likely Matchup: Lachie Plowman

Projected Matchup Winner:- Plowman 58% - Rohan 42%

Pressure Tendency: Looks to keep the ball moving forward as much as possible via short kicks into the hot zone.

Forwards – Pressure

Max Holmes – Pressure Acts = 7, Tackles = 0.8, One Percenters = 1.4, Score Involvements = 2.2

Can rotate in the midfield which adds a string to his bow as often he is against a backman who will push up the ground. Has good pace and a good engine which means he can keep up with the wiliest half back. Looks to pressure the strong side of his opposite man allowing a kick to the corridor which is Geelong’s Strength. Also can impact the scoring opportunities and act as a decoy run for their talls.

Likely Matchup: SPS

Projected Matchup Winner:- SPS 51% - Holmes 49%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks to the hot zone

Brad Close – Pressure Acts = 17.9, Tackles = 3.2 One Percenters = 0.9, Score Involvements = 5.2

Gets right in the face of anyone who looks to exit 50, Great pressure numbers, and also can impact the scoreboard himself. Looks to lock the ball in and is dangerous from the forward half stoppages. Lives at the feet of the talls, and looks to stop any run and carry from deep.

Likely Matchup: Nic Newman

Projected Matchup Winner:- Newman 54% - Close 46%

Pressure Tendency: Handball heavy in tight situations.

Tall Forwards

Tom Hawkins – Goals = 2.5, Mark Inside 50 = 3.5, Shots per Game = 4.7, Score Involvements = 7.9

The real Centrepoint of their attack. Will lead all day long and creates space in and behind him for his talented smalls to work in. Has exceptional reading ability and will paddle the ball all ways with a real team-first mentality. Can kick from just about anywhere on the field. And is a complete Jet of a footballer.

Likely Matchup: Jacob Weitering

Projected Matchup Winner:- Weitering 50% - Hawkins 50%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks to the Square very high

Esava Ratugolea – Goals = 0.3, Mark Inside 50 = 0.9, Shots per Game = 0.6, Score Involvements = 2.3

Mainly deployed as a Ruckman who rests in the forward line, but with the out of Cameron, I would expect him to play more forward than most games. Very serviceable and very strong, has surprising great skills below his feet, so will look to bring the ball down in marking contests to his smalls. Could be the surprise packet as historically when he does snag he gains confidence very quickly.

Likely Matchup: Liam Jones

Projected Matchup Winner:- Jones 60% - Ratugolea 40%

Pressure Tendency: Just gets rid of it to his open side

Rucks

Rhys Stanley – Hit Out Win % = 32.4%, Hit Outs To Advantage = 26.7%, Clearances = 3.2, Marks = 3.8

By no means the top Ruckman in the comp, but his ability to work around the ground is very strong, Often is the extra behind the ball or in the forward line, and Blicavs will drop into the midfield. This allows them to have targets to get out of trouble. His primary job is to drop the ball down at his feet, and Selwood (out in this game) looks to handball it away quickly.

Likely Matchup: TDK

Projected Matchup Winner:- TDK 46% - Stanley 64%

Pressure Tendency: Kicks to 50 through the corridor

Clearance Patterns

This is how we would expect to see them set up, The art of Geelong is they don’t often dominate in this position at Centre Clearance, they set up to stop you getting it out via O’Connor and Parfitt being drawn to the fall of the bounce, and Guthrie or Danger (in Selwoods Abscene) will offload the ball to a runner, coming from wide to the wing or central. It is then a process of move away and run into space to enter 50 with control, Geelong is aiming for the receiver of that handball to hit a target. They often go back if a team play a man behind, and that’s where Blicavs comes in as he becomes then the next mid, and they effectively pack the corridor.

Ball Movement Patterns

As we can see from this graph Geelong are exceptional in both ends of the hot zone, often packing their midfield to come towards the ball carrier, they tend to be strong through the Right-hand side of the ground, where teams that have success will get them to kick long down the left-wing. This is their vulnerable area. Outside 50 can be a risk as they like to have one more possession to make sure it’s an easy hit up. Often Handballs in this area allow the opposition to pressure a fumble and to turn the ball over, on the wing sides of 50, their elite movement and ability to move up in groups allows them to have high efficiency in these areas.

Kick Ins – The New Winning Area

Tom Stewart and Zach Tuohy generally share the duties of the kick-ins, Both offering different options. Zach Prefers to attack the Left Hand Side, and Go Deeper, Whereas Tom Likes to Go Short to the Right, Or Long to The Right Wing. They both though have a habit of handballing or Kicking and getting the return, This is deadly in both cases as when this happens they can clear their lines, and run a unique kick in defence structure that allows them to be ready to have 2 lines of defence should the ball turnover and allow them to Defend any potential inside 50 with their supreme interceptors.

At The other end of the ground, Geelong tries to filter the ball to where they want the opposition to go, packing the key areas with their tall interceptors, and encouraging the wing kick, They back themselves in to spoil the resulting mark, and set up behind the ball allowing their walls to stifle space. Their game plan revolves around this fundamental of making the ground small and taking away space. They have found over the years that they can perform at the larger grounds and take away that corridor option.

Summary

Geelong are one of the more regimented sides in the AFL, the process to beat them requires matching them around the middle of the ground & looking to use quick ball movement to try to disrupt their defensive systems.

Geelong will purposely move the ball slow, this allows them to constantly have one man extra in the line allowing them to control the football and move up in lines.

Around the stoppages and contests, they are willing to kick behind, to maintain possession and to again control the football.

The blueprint is simple, to trust your system, to man up, and release players up the ground and to the ball. Look to spread quickly and to transition quickly.