It’s a Big Year for… Paddy Dow

Written By Ari Stamatakos 

Throughout the 2021 Pre-season, Blue Abroad will be providing content to cover everything you need to know about the Carlton Football Club. 

For what should be an exciting and intriguing 2021, let's take an in-depth look at players who are destined for a big year, or must have a big year in 2021.

It's a big 2021 for Carlton’s #2 – Paddy Dow.

2020 was mostly a regression year for Paddy Dow, only managing 3 games and not making a profound impact on either outing. The number 3 pick has massive expectations on him and especially after a good first season and a good first half of 2019, these recent seasons have disappointed plenty. However, there is hope for Carlton supporters at last. Dow ripped it up in a practice match against Essendon, kicking 2 goals and being named in Carlton's best, maybe this is the turning point for Paddy. 

One thing that is undeniable about Paddy is his explosiveness from the contest and having the ability to find inside ball. Averaging 7 contested possession per match throughout his career and 2.5 total clearances, ranking average and above average respectively, shows that he has always been a solid contributor to Carlton’s ability to win the contested midfield battle.

While not excelling at any other stats, in particular, he stands out when it comes to the overall pressure acts statistic. An above-average ranking with 16.7 pressure acts per match displays his tenacity. His 5.5 ground ball gets per match also displays his head over ball attitude at all times. 

The Best Case Scenario Is

It was another year of “what if” for Paddy in 2020, so in 2021 there is an expectation for Paddy to elevate and improve to the next level. Improvement in his disposals should be the number one priority. Averaging 65.3% disposal efficiency, 3.3 effective kicks and 48.3% kicking efficiency, all ranking below average, is a sad indictment of how underwhelming he has been in recent times. The ability is there, he has shown glimpses of greatness and could become a real x-factor for the Blues in years to come 

Overall, he has only managed to get over 20 disposals 4 times in his career, so for him to get anywhere near that number consistently is unrealistic, considering the addition of Zac Williams and the drastic improvement of the likes of Sam Walsh and Will Setterfield taking possession off him. With that saying, he has shown glimpses of a dynamic goal-scoring midfielder, so potentially that could be something to be looked at for Paddy in 2021, he would need to improve his aforementioned kicking for that to become anywhere near a reality. Somewhere between 18-25 disposals per match and kicking a goal or two as well would be a very solid improvement and probably the best-case scenario from a young player who is out of form. 

Overall Expectations 

While he can play constantly at the top level, he hasn't been able to show it too often in recent times, so for him to show everyone what he is about, he must play as much as possible. Should 18-25 disposals per game be the best-case scenario, then a reasonable and attainable expectation would be somewhere between 15-21 disposals per match and a goal every other game. 

He was taken pick 3 in the 2018 draft and if you look at other pick 3 players in and around him, he needs to elevate to get the levels of those like Hugh McCluggage and Callum Mills. This could serve as a breakout year for Dow, it's almost like a do or die position for him in 2021. After a solid first year and a half as an AFL footballer, he hasn't been in favour of a David Teague midfield, so for him to break into the midfield consistently, its a clear indication of how much he is willing to improve and drive for further success. He needs to prove all doubter wrong in 2021 and show the Carlton faithful how good of a footballer he is. 

Status Leading Into 2021 - Rotation Player