Carlton Mid-Season Review
Written by Ari Stamatakos
Well, where has the season gone? In the mix of another state-wide lockdown (at the time of writing) for all us Victorians, the footy has served to be, once again, a brilliant distraction. While the season hasn't been the best for the Baggers, sitting 4-7 after 11 rounds, let's look back at some of their highs and lows from the first 11 rounds. And where we could be after our next 11 games.
Best performance - Vs Fremantle (H)
Whilst probably not being the most satisfying win (the Essendon game takes the cake for that one) it's the most satisfying and best performance of the season, bar none. Coming off a very disappointing loss to the Pies, the Blues needed to respond, and they did big time. Under the roof at Marvel, Carlton put on a scintillating performance from start to finish as they beat the Dockers by a convincing 45 points.
One of the key reasons this match was the best of the first half of the season was the total domination throughout. A 6 goal to 1 second term iced the game from there and the stats tell the full story. 281-187 uncontested possessions, 64-43 inside 50’s, 43-29 clearances, 118-78 marks. Total and complete domination as the Blues recorded their first win of the year.
What made it even more special was the sprinkling of individual performances as well. Eddie was back to his magical best. Cripps had 38 and kicked a couple. Fogarty announced himself in Navy Blue colours. Walsh had a career-high 37 touches and who could forget about Harry McKay. Career-best 7 goals and 10 marks, the making of Carlton’s next big thing (hopefully)
Worst Performance - Vs Collingwood (H)
With the good, must come the bad and this loss still hurts. Primetime footy, round 2, arch-enemy and the Baggers folded…. again. It's become a staple that we can't seem to see out games. 50odd thousand strong at the MCG and the Blues couldn't match it with a team who would go on to win 1 game since and lose 8.
The Pies started the better side and stayed it throughout. However, what's the most disappointing thing is that the execution was there, but the effort was so far off. Carlton won the clearances 40-35 level with the uncontested possession 217 apiece, only lost the contested possession by 19. Yet the tackles, Collingwood won 65-41. A damning indictment of where the game was won and lost. Walsh, Fogarty and Docherty starred yet again as the Blues went down by 21 points
Best Players
On a much lighter note, the best players this season have been by far and away Sam Walsh and Harry McKay. Too hard to split as both have been outstanding. Starting with Harry. He leads the Coleman Medal race with 38 goals, a career-high already. He leads the competition in average marks inside 50 with 4.1 and ranks elite amongst forwards for contested marks with 2.6, ranked 5th overall. The drastic improvement has been something to behold. One can only imagine how good our forward line could be with Charlie back in the side.
Looking in the midfield now, and none other than Sam Walsh. He is slowly becoming one of the best midfielders in the competition. His meteoric rise has come as no surprise to those who have backed him and recognized his talents from day one. He averages the 3rd best disposal efficiency from everyone who averages more than 30 disposals. He ranks elite in effective disposals with 22.8. He ranks elite for score involvements with 7.2 and has only had two games this year where he has dropped below 29 disposals. The stats don't do his season any justice. He has risen to the occasion more than once and has proved that he is capable of taking the mantle from Patrick Cripps, for now at least.
Most Improved
When you look at who is the most improved this season, strong arguments can be said for both stars mentioned above. However, I prefer to look at players who went from not getting anywhere near starting, to becoming near undroppable in a matter of weeks. I speak of none other than Matt Owies.
The basketballer turned footballer has found a home in Carlton’s forward line in season 2021. Making his debut in 2020, he has elevated to new heights this season and it was encapsulated in his 3 goal game against Essendon where he tore the game apart.
This season he is a pressure machine. Averaging elite for tackles inside 50 with 1.6, above average for tackles and pressure acts with 4 and 18.6 respectively. His good eye for goal is encapsulated with his above-average rank for goal accuracy with 61.5%. His 72% kick efficiency is also staggering considering he predominantly played basketball as a kid. Learning from Eddie Betts, he has shown signs of the next small forward who can be a part of a successful Carlton team.
Second Half Preview
After a disappointing first half of the season. Carlton needs a massive lift in the second half of the year should they fulfil their expectations of finals football. These are the Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario, Pass Mark and a Predictions for both wins and losses, and final ladder position based on what we have seen so far this season.
Best Case Scenario
Starting with the best-case scenario. Some might say this is crazy, but this isn't what's probably going to happen, this is the absolute best-case scenario. That's going 9-2 from the remaining 11 games. The two games which we would drop would be GWS at Giants Stadium and Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. This would include beating the likes of Geelong at the G, GWS at Marvel, West Coast at the SCG and Fremantle at Optus Stadium. Considering Carlton’s best footy is capable of beating anyone in the comp, this could happen… probably not, but could. This would see us sitting anywhere 5th and 7th, which would be dreamy.
Worst Case Scenario
Going on the other end of the spectrum. The worst-case scenario is the one more likely to happen, and the one which looks bleaker. The absolute worst case would see us going 4-7. Dropping games like Fremantle away and St. Kilda at Marvel would leave every fan fuming, however, it's a shame that it could be a very real possibility. That would see us being placed somewhere around the 13th to 16th which would be diabolical.
Pass Mark
Going smack bang in the middle and looking at the Pass mark for the rest of the season. Now, this will be different for everyone but on a base level the pass mark would be to go 5-6 at an absolute minimum, and for this to be a pass mark we would need to have some heartbreaking losses to ease the expectations a little bit. This would put us on 36 points and somewhere between the 10th to 14th range which would be another wasted season.
Prediction
For the prediction, I'm going to take a couple of things into account.
1. The return of the likes of Zac Fisher, Mitch McGovern and heaven forbid Charlie Curnow.
2. The steady increase in the form of Patrick Cripps.
3. The issues we are facing are addressed. Not completely eradicated because it's a lot harder than it seems, but at least mitigated to a noticeable degree; and
4. The players play with that extra bit of intensity knowing what's at stake.
All of the above might not come to fruition, however, should some of them be fulfilled then my prediction would be for us to go 7-4. (With the game against the Giants in the last round being the one that could see us up to 8 wins, depending on the circumstances) This would put us 8th or 9th, around there. This would have it come down to other results, and depending on the bounce of a ball, an umpiring decision or a kick after the siren, this season could either be a success or a failure, based on 1 ladder position. I think all Carlton fans would agree that if we manage to make finals somehow, whether it's by going 11 games undefeated, or a team does an Essendon, and we scrape in like last time. The season would be deemed a success. It's been 7 years, it was the expectation pre-season, we’ve talked about it, we’ve coached towards it, and we've recruited towards it and if we don't get there, it will go down as another failed season at the Carlton Football Club.
