The Scout Report | Round 16 vs St. Kilda
Written by Dan Williams
St. Kilda
The Saints come into this game with an 8 - 6 record.
The old cliche of a tale of two halves is very fitting for Rattens men, as they have gone on the field, and statistically from one of the top teams in the comp to a team in free fall at the minute, with a 3 game-losing streak as it stands.
A Major area for them is their high kicking style requires them to hit the territory battle in areas they can wing (outside) however in recent weeks teams have congested them into the corridor and outmuscled them.
The usual game style is quick and manic, which does favour the modern game, but has become rather pedestrian of late. But they have time to make adjustments at the pointy end, otherwise, finals are looking unlikely.
They will be looking to respond, and will need at least 2 wins in their next 3 verses (us, Dockers and Dogs) to make finals as their end of the year is tougher than a mutton chop.
Kicking Heavy Ball Movement
In the last 6 Rounds, the Saints have fallen from 1st in scores per inside 50 to 17th.
A large part of this is sides have taken away the wide channels and forced them to kick centrally. However, in full flight, it is the perfect way to move the ball, when you have King at your disposal. The Whole Premise is the create an angle for him to run on.
You will see a lot of doubling-back running-wise, As Saints look to enter early and deep into the forward 50.
A smart handball to their half-backs who push up, (Hill & Clarke do this a lot) is reminiscent of Man Utd with Becks and Neville.
This allows them to effectively flood the wings and launch entries earlier than the norm. Giving King the space inside 50 where he is generally (with quick movement 1 on 1)
A nice deep entry causes King to have a great angle to lead onto, one on one he is hard to stop, and it requires 2 defenders to be drawn to that contest.
They look to implement their pressure from the midfield and half forwards who work incredibly hard. With this type of movement, it can become tough to exit when done quickly.
Carlton will have to look to invoke pressure and funnel play in the central areas where it becomes more of a dog fight in the corridor where Carlton has the advantage.
Carlton’s Quick Movement
One huge bonus for Carlton with injuries has been they have adapted many methods to goal.
The most staple of this is they have to move it quickly to appease their forwards (Like Saints) but they have a different method.
Combining hand and foot to move quickly in short sharp stabs at the ball.
Here Saad takes the ball and looks to play the quick one-two, we see this a lot with Cottrell and O'Brien being fed by Newnes also.
One-Twos are one of the most effective methods in the AFL. Why? Because as you can see Fredericks reacts to the run of Doc, opening space behind as Doc's man also follows.
Looking ahead, Motion is the detriment for Zones, as players natural gravitate to the ball carrier, now the Defence slowly moves forward, requiring them to reset backwards as the ball comes in.
This is Charlie's Area, as he is one of the few forwards in the AFL who can crumb like a small, but body like bigs.
As the ball comes in 2 things are noticeable. One is the workable space in front of the contest. Jsos and co are already actively planning on getting afront of the contest, with one joining the contest from the side.
The other is Charlie when combines with Harry, who pushes or leads the man to the contest and stays goal side.
This allows a very easy out-the-back goal, and an area in which is almost impossible to stop unless you take an extra tall. As Harry one on one is himself impossible to beat.
The Battle Of Forward Pressure - Saints
You will remember when Ratten first arrived at Saints, one of their key points of difference was their ability to enact forward pressure.
This has fallen down into the bottom half of the AFL this year, and that's partly due to the improvement in the transition of sides using the handball.
We can see how it works though in this example. They work as two teams, one at full forward with deep forward pressure, then they open up parts of the d.50 to encourage overuse and meet the 2nd wave of smalls at half forward.
As you can see the deepest pressure forwards enact space, and leave the small handball over the top into trouble available.
Saints pressure isn't heavily tackle-based, but more causing you to not risk the exit kick to the waiting mob outside 50.
They flood that area and make it a game of chicken for the defenders.
As the ball is inched further up the ground. Eventually, you meet the second wave of forward defence.
This group are charged with effectively daring the backman to kick it out, Membrey is very smart in these moves and often exits forward 50 and leaves King full forward to pressure the exit kick to the wing to a contest, or you run it out.
This is death by the sword moment, as sides like Carlton thrive on a quick movement down back. If you break the first line en masse you can be out and hit them on the behind very quickly, Saints are ranking bottom 4 for defensive transition this year.
Carlton’s Manic Forward Pressure.
Carlton's forward pressure begins very early, and it is very nuanced. Notice how the Keys react. One goes up (Charlie) One stays as a decoy (Harry) and more importantly, JSOS makes a dummy lead to the side of the marking contest (perhaps one of the most difficult to stop in the AFL), but then locates himself at the fall of the ball.
Notice when the ball hits the deck, how Carlton has 2 clear lines at the fall of the ball, encouraging a long kick (opposite to Saints) as they have laid the wing and corridor as a trap with talls waiting for the intercept.
Look at how Carlton has condensed the area in front of the ball, with Jsos now pushing for the forward position of the Contest, and Harry stopping calvary from getting to the contest.
After some fumbles, and no clean ball, Carlton force the opposition to kick wide and relieve pressure.
Notice the half forwards flanks and pockets are close to this contest. Carlton play 2 clear lines almost ontop of the fall of the ball, with the midfield acting as the half-forward line (in the saints example)
Carlton at their best often gains their repeat entries from this, and last week was a clear indication of how strong they are.
As Forward pressure is one of the key measurements for success in todays game.
3 to Watch - The Villians
Rowan Marshall is a threat whether it be in the Ruck or when he goes and rests up forward. Often is used to create that mismatch up forward, but is a very mobile ruckman who creates space often for Jack Steele. Currently Ranked 9th In Hitouts in 2022.
The captain, and the metronome of the Saints' side. Everything good that Saints do, this guy isn't far away from. Currently ranked 17th in Disposals Per Game, 4th in Tackles Per Game & 16th in Contested Possessions Per Game.
The superstar forward Max King is a combination of brute strength and high athleticism that makes him a tough match-up for anyone on the field. Currently displayed on the stat column with his rankings of 6th for Total Goals, 1st in Total Contested Marks & 2nd in Total Marks Inside 50
3 to Watch - The Heroes
Captain Carlton, is having a stellar year. One that in the recent weeks that has gone under the radar, with a shift from being the primary user of the ball, to a more Cotchin 2017 approach of being the man who gives it to the best users in the side. A real threat and if he has games like last week 20 times you win a flag. Currently ranked 5th in Total Contested Possessions, 13th in Total Score Involvements, 18th in Disposals Per Game, 19th in Effective Disposals Per Game, 4th in Centre Clearances Per Game, 7th in Stoppage Clearances Per Game, & 14th in Score Involvements Per Game
Jack is without a doubt the heart and soul of this Carlton outfit and has really jumped into the universal football world's eyes, with his Grigg-like ruck ability. A role that is often suited for Jack is being in the Furness, he has shown great fight and commitment but also brings the heat in their key hot zones. His ability to influence the game is understated but a great example was the 20 disposal 8 marks and 2 goals game in the Rd 9 30-pt win over GWS
Was the Prince, now without a doubt the KING of Princes Park, not many people believed he could return this way (I Did 75 goals was the prediction pre-season) but Charlie is proving why he is in my opinion the best footballer in the competition. A lot has been made this week of Jeremy Cameron, but Charlie has him covered, strong, athletic and very high in footy IQ. Whether the ball is in the air or on the deck he knows how to find the goals. A real threat that few in the comp can match him on his day! Currently Ranked 1st in Total Goals, 5th in Total Contested Marks, 4th in Total Marks Inside 50 & 15th in Score Involvements Per Game.
Return of the Calvary
Carlton has done exceptionally well without Jacob down the back, but it isn't any secret they are far better with him. Showcased perhaps in our loss to the Pies, his ability when the forward enact pressure and bomb kick out, his threat lies in his direct attack on the football, as well as being able to deem a forward impotent in front of goal. A huge in and boost if he makes it through the week, I sense he will surprise us all and get up for this one. His hard work is often undersold and this is showcased he ranks 5th in one-percenter in the AFL.
The little pocket rocket Owies has gone from strength to strength and has been a key ingredient in the upturn of Carlton's forward pressure. The LEADING (Number 1) Tackler inside 50 in the AFL in 2022, really showcases the mantra of the greats who say small forwards tackle, over kicking snags. Huge in for Carlton vs the Saints if he gets up.
Adam "Pirlo" Cerra, is probably an ingredient we saw missing up until last week when Fisher became Chesney. A real vital part of the stoppage work that Carlton does, often looking to sit a back from the contest and keep the tempo in the ball movement, loves to hit players up at pace which plays into Carlton's ball movement and threat transitioning. Currently Ranked 13th for inside 50s per game. Carlton's midfield will welcome him back with open arms.
Conclusion
Huge game for both sides, With Carlton almost certain of locking in the 8 with a win versus the Saints. For the Saints it is now or never for finals, they lose this then the draw says they miss out and could even slide further down heaping pressure on Ratten.
The Form book suggests an easy win for Cartlon, and Saints in all honesty are statistically a side that seems to have stagnated with Ratten.
Carlton too big, too strong, too quick for the Saints
A showcase win for the Blues
Carlton by 25
