The Scout Report | Round 15 vs Fremantle
Written by Dan Williams
Fremantle
Fremantle is much like their eastern counterparts, in the terms of they have been going along steadily and not gaining the media's love.
Wins away to Geelong & Demons have shown their premiership credentials, however, they have dropped points when going into games as heavy favourites.
Currently, with a record of 10 - 3, They are right in the mix of finals, and with the ladder becoming more congested than west gate at peak hour, wins are now at a premium.
Their brand under coach Justin Longmuir has stood the test this year, being very stiff at the source of all things football (the contest) and although they don't plough on the points, they are very difficult to break down and look to go quickly when opportunities arise.
This shapes up to be potentially the tie of the round this week.
The Source - Fremantle
Fremantle currently ranks 3rd in tackles, 2nd in the least disposals against, and 4th in clearances around the ground. Add that to being 4th in hit-outs and you have a recipe for a side that pretty much controls the primary battleground. They achieve a lot of their success at the centre and stoppages by clustering the contest. Watch as the first movement of the bounce for the midfielders is to pull away then as it falls they drive to the fall of the ball.
As the ball is in dispute, They actively look to protect space, and swarm the area, but leave someone to get "Goal Side" (Brodie) as the outlet, Teams often are drawn to the ball, Carlton was majorly guilty of this last week vs Richmond. They use Mundy as the direct runner, who looks to hit the won ball at pace and to get them moving forward quickly.
Brodie, being out the back drew the attention of the Hawks' Ruck & Midfielder. This allowed Mundy to hit the ground at pace and drive the ball inside 50 quickly. This was very prominent when they beat the Demons a few weeks back. Teams are very vulnerable around stoppages and clearances, and quick ball movement is key, Darcy often acts as the stopper here in these cases and they go even more central.
The Source - Carlton
Last week Carlton struggled to win it out of the centre, and stoppages were at times overrun. Brodie will play a similar way to Prestia around the source of battle. Carlton changed it up in the 2nd and had more success with moving Hewett to the direct runner (short in this example) and allowing Bam to be the physical prescence. This opened up a role for Walsh, and Fisher to be the user out the back of the contest.
If we are being picky, JSOS/TDK have to be a lot closer to the ball for the Voss system to work. The rovers have been guilty of almost acting like they ASSUME we win it at the source. However, the Voss model is out the back and then looks to go forward. Freo looks to go quickly, Carlton look to find the space and then hit up targets ahead of the ball through fast handball chains, or out wide.
In this example (due to weather) Carlton kicked long and forced the forward half stoppage. However when it is in full flight and we led the comp in scores from here. Hewett would have been hit up, and then a runner Obrien Cottrell would have received the hand ball and Carlton would be away. The major change in the last 2 games has Carlton has overused the ball in this area, The first half is case and point, Carlton had hands in nearly every hitout, but low tackle numbers, but also low clearance numbers combined with a very high handball ratio is a recipe for disaster in the clutch of battle.
Carlton’s Clearance Woes
This is how I would expect them to set up for the majority of the time on Saturday afternoon. Now in the last couple of weeks, Carlton has been exceptionally guilty of two things here. One: They have overused the football, but this is not out of choice, We have seen they have a tendency to get the goal side of the ball (Left to Right) & Two: By being Goalside of the ball, they have made it incredibly easy if the tackles are missed to be caught out the back. This has been a great leader in the reasons in the wet we have been exposed. As we effective give up territory.
How this works is teams have dropped the ball at the fall of the contest or looked to hit it out our backside. Both sides the last 2 weeks have used the player outside of the square to cross in at the contest, and look to handball it to them and set up an attack with a 2 on 1 out the back. Carlton readjusted in both games late, But for us to be this aggressive at stoppages and centre clearances TACKLES are premium, we got our hands to about 50% of the hit-outs over the last couple of weeks first, but have not been able to stop being over run.
The Change I expect to see and use is to encourage Walsh in this example, To peel off behind the ball with Hewett, and use Bam Bam and TDK to block pathways to the ball. Enabling Cripps to feed the ball back to a Walsh, play the one-two with Hewett and set up an attack that way. Fremantle looks to limit use and space. So the HANDBALL & MOVEMENT is pivotal to any success.
Exploiting Freo’s Limited Transition.
Fremantle has just 11.3% of its score has been launched from defensive 50 chains this season, which is ranked last in the AFL. Good forward pressure is a must. In the early parts of the Richmond game, this was on the show, however, Richmond is the best side in the comp at this. Carlton set up traps on the outside (TDK does this a lot) and Carlton has to look to exploit this. In this example, Durdin is caught in a quick transition but wins the ball back and looks to set us back inside 50.
Very important this line here remains in tact. Last week and throughout the last couple of. Our forward half pressure and TACKLES have been way below the expectation. It does start in the mdifidled. But if you cannot stop the opposition from exiting pressure areas then you leave the Midfield with way too much work to do. Especially if it comes out easily, they won't be high up the ground to help with scoring opportunities. Remember Fremantle are very hard to get the ball into scoring zones.
The early ball, and the line stretching the defensive Zone, Allow McKay to do what he does probably better than anyone else, and that is running from deep to the marking contest. Pearce and Co are no match for McKay if Carlton can make sure they recycle these 50s and look to target the hotzones.
3 to Watch - The Villians
The catalyst to everything that goes well at Fremantle. Brayshaw has really come of age this year. Top 10 in i50s, Top 3 in Tackles & 7th in efficency. Brayshaw has it all, and around in tight, he can take the game to anyone in a blink of an eye.
Will Brodie, has taken his opportunity at Fremantle with both hands and ran with it. Ranking top 10 for clearances, he has really added an element of steel to the midfield and really shone in Fyfe's absence this year. Craft but tough, he can break lines with his bull-like frame, and really stretch sides around the contest.
4th most hit-outs per game say it all. Darcy is having a really strong year, and if you are a Fremantle fan he is one of the blokes you will be looking to go big this week. His role is very understated, and he creates so much room for his mids to work in tight. Using his frame as a battering ram to stop mids from getting to the ball.
3 to Watch - The Heroes
The ultimate clearance and stoppage player! has really had a career-defining year. Has added many elements we do not associate with our captain. Really getting involved ahead of the ball, and relishing the heavy handball and move system in tight situations. This is a game built for Crippa, and I expect a BIG ONE from the juggernaut.
The Quiet achiever. Probably Carlton's best acquisition in over a decade. George has become a kind of Tom Brady of AFL. Looking to sit at the back of the contest and use the ball in dangerous situations. Part of Cripps's high offence numbers come from the fact that this bloke has probably the hardest job on the field. George has to have a big one this week as we have struggled in the stoppage areas. And he will be looking to bounce back with a big one this week.
Saady has fast become one of Carlton's most important players this year. Particularly when the proverbial hits the fan! His ability to change the pace of the game, particularly in transition is poignant in this one. As Freo stifle the middle of the park. This will allow someone to take the game on, and He is the best in the business at taking the game on.
Return of the HONEY
Honey has bided his time well, and his last two VFL games have showcased what he brings to the Carlton Football Club.
This week he banged the goals in, one particular highlight was his work around forward half stoppages, really mirroring the threat of a Touk Miller who looks to direct run a lane straight into danger and make himself open.
His ability the week before to drop deep and be the conduit between midfield and the forward line was excellent, and he showed that if he doesn't hit the scoreboard he can become a threat like JSOS on the other side was a real delight.
Ready-made to play AFL football as he has exceptional IQ but also has a real keen eye for the final 3rd.
Last Man Stands KEMPY
Brodie has been moved from pillar to post in the VFL, and has quickly become the Carlton Polyfillar for tall positions.
But looked more than at home on a very WINDY Windy hill last week. A large proportion of Spoils, which suits how Carlton has been transitioning the ball shows he understands the system and more importantly the conditions.
But a forgotten part of his game last week was his ability to attack the contest from the side (Allowing clear pathways for the defence) and his ability to transition the football on the switch.
A Real talent that perhaps we forget. Gets the opportunity this week when the chips are down and the expectation is we are the underdogs. Go Well Young Thing!
Conclusion
These games even at this stage of the situation are fast becoming finals in June.
On paper, with the outs, you would say Freo are the odds-on favourites. But there is something about this Blues side people forget. Even when they do not play well they somehow find a way to be there at the death.
I expect perfect conditions will really favour Carlton, and the last 2 weeks are more a case of Carlton did not have a plan to play in perfect conditions, and now the Wet is a new issue in itself.
Carlton will come out firing, knowing a win this week puts them in POLE position with the results last week to finally return to the top 8 come year's end.
This side isn't about Finals its about flags, and knowing the calvary arrives imminently a win against a top 6 foe without their big guys would really give massive confidence going into the pointy end of the year.
Carlton by 5 in a THRILLER!
