The Scout Report | Round 14 v Richmond
Written by Dan Williams
Richmond
Richmond started the year poorly, Many people had them top 8 and although many agreed they were back end of their dynasty years much was expected of them to challenge.
Since Dustin Martin has come back though they have gone on a decent run that has seen them rise to around the finals, where they are so accustomed to being.
Catapulted with a trouncing of Eagles, they put away the less fancied sides (Pies the exception) in their usually controlled manner.
However the old Richmond way is starting to wane, where as the high tackle, high pressure brand was so successful years gone, now the modern game has jumped ahead, and sides are finding ways to hurt them particularly in the corridor which once upon a time was so well defended.
The Rucks - Centre Clearances
Nankervis and Soldo are one of the toughest teams of Ruckman to win hit-outs versus. They do have hot zones and although they have (lower end scale) To advantage numbers. Their strength is in the movement of their support cast. Nankervis is probably one of the more underrated Ruckman in the comp. He sets himself early, and from here we see two avenues, Soldo and Nank generally play the ball behind them, and Richmond set up to protect the corridor, if the bounce is half or toward the defensive end it goes back, but be careful of the one that is punched forward towards half-forward to runners.
In this example the ball is played behind the halfway, Nank looks to stop the Ruck contesting the ground ball and acts as a stopper, and Prestia (Generally placed ahead) will look to stop supporting casts joining the fray, Incidentally, he is deadly when they play the tap forward of the centre as again he can stop 2 players with Nank as their half forwards pinch up the ground. Notice Cotchin moves towards behind the ball as soon as the ball is tapped, The aim here is to either have a short sharp handball chain and Territory gained quickly (Balta & Riewoldt will be running hard towards the mid as an outlet) or they will look to play it to a runner coming from halfback.
Because of the zonal defence and 6-6-6 rule in the AFL, lateral and horizontal movement are DISASTER zones for setting placements up. This backwards forward method is common in a lot of Ball sports, Notice the major gaps in the field. Richmond plays a heavy territory game this year, and in this scenario, Martin is playing CHF (Riewoldt often takes this spot for Centre Bounces) and misses the mark, but they are already set to hit the opposition early. AFL and most ball sports have clear stats that show you are most vulnerable after a Goal is scored, and with the AFL rules, Centre clearance is a must, However, playing behind the ball in stoppages and clearances can cause you to be overrun as Carlton showed in Round 1.
The Rucks - Centre Clearances - The Cure
Why Carlton is so dominant from Centre Clearances (no.1 in comp) is because they have a variety of ways to hurt you. Although the personnel generally doesn't change too much, they shift roles inside very quickly in-game. Here Carlton looks to protect their goal side more (the area Richmond generally looks to go to in Ruck contests). Deploying Kennedy, Hewett (stopper Defence side) and Cripps (Forward Side) Setters and Cerra (Walsh this week) were often deployed as the wings. What this does is give Carlton an incredibly hard set-up to just kick out of trouble, they either win it or force a restart, wish Setters were used as a pinch-in type to add muscle and Walsh as the guy to get them going.
Carlton has one of the lowest Kick to Handball ratios in the AFL in stoppages and clearances. For Good Reason, Perhaps historically one of the best sides in the modern-day game at this was the Hawks in their dynasty years. Mitchell (Sam) was often the stopper, playing behind the ball and protected by his cohort to ping passes and set up the play. Here Carlton's tactic is in full flight. Win the ball, block for Hewett and he will deliver either a handball (to a marauding Doc or Saad), A over-the-top handball to a dashing Walsh or Play it into Cripps's hands as he runs ahead. This has generated around 2 goals a game purely from centre work and has us top 3 in stoppages and clearances scores. It is deadly and efficient. More importantly, it causes you to adapt to our way and plan and doesn't require winning taps.
The largest part of this success is the togetherness and compact nature of the midfielders. If a player takes off on the run (Dow did this when he played) the protection is lost, This smart handball to Bam Bam shows why it works, He was blocking at the point of the bounce, but Pittonet became that block off the ball and now he is overlapping. Cripps is now also overlapping. OVERLAP is the key to Vossys ball movement, and it generates another inside 50 which Carlton ultimately scores from.
Tall Tall Tall Tigers
Lynch has one of the most important roles as he is one of the most targeted forwards in the game. A staple of his movement is he drops very deep and then runs to the contest late. This allows Rielwodt to work as a horizontal running lane, but allows the resting ruck to set up shop to block and clear a space for Lynch.
In this example Riewoldt hangs behind, (will be Balta usually with Martin Out) and Martin plays the Role of Riewoldt running in front of the zone. Nankervis has set himself up, clearing a path for Lynch to come from the side.
Lynch here has managed to leave his man for dead. The system they use is a real disaster for Zonal systems. This is just one example. But surprisingly Lynch only averages one mark on a lead per game. His running pattern is often used as a decoy, Allowing Bolton, and Balta to roam in from behind these leads that Riewoldt and Lynch provide. It is imperative these runs are checked and you look to spoil and exploit the overlap.
Tall Tall Tall Tigers - The Cure
How Carlton has focused heavily in the last couple of weeks with injuries, is they actively channel the opposition's ball movement by flooding the corridor. This begins very early, and like most of Carlton's game plan has a heavy focus on flooding areas they do not want to engage in, and opening angles, Last week they forced Essendon to use the corridor (the opposite of how they like to attack) and I predict this week they'll focus like Sydney and look to channel it down the wide side of the ground to open up transition opportunities. Here they pack the midfield into the corridor and Oscillate McGovern (Weitering and now Durdin) deep in the next kick area.
Against sides like Richmond who like to move it short and sharp, Carlton has traditionally made them focus their kick longer, and encouraged them to resort to kicking. Young and Durdin will both be tasked with being at the last kick outside the 50 arcs, this is where and why Richmond has such high Goal Assists as they like to prod the ball into holes inside 50.
With all the short options left, and the trap laid to kick long, McGovern and Williams work together to take this intercept, and then set up a score launch from transition. This week expect to see Durdin work with Saad and Young work with Doc.
3 to Watch - The Villians
Nank needs no introduction, and for a man of his size, he is a difficult customer with the ball on the deck too. Will be key to everything Richmond does this week, as they have gone bold and gone with him as the Solo option. Expect to see him at stoppages and centre bounces really blocking routes for midfielders to gain first use. By Carlton's selection, they have focused on having strong small players to really take the game on when they win the ball back. Nank will be there aiming to close their exits.
Riewoldt although maybe has lost an element of his dominance, is a deadly link between the midfield and the forward line. Running from pocket positions and intersecting the majority of the defensive zones. Often the decoy run, but also takes a large number of his marks from Richmond's preference of gaining territory. Durdin will look to run with this Bloke and impact the ball to the ground so Carlton can counterattack quickly and dangerously.
No stranger to Carlton fans, Bolton will be one to watch for Tigers fans, His ability to work in the space that the leads of Lynch and Riewoldt leave behind will be paramount to Richmond's success. Doc will relish a chance to go head to head with him, but I will be interested to see if Voss deploys Saad on him, Saad has in recent weeks been given this task, and will relish the opportunity to intercept the cross-field balls they send Bolton's way as a medium for score launches.
3 to Watch - The Villians
Zac is one of the many who has really lifted his game since Voss took the reigns. Showcasing his dash and skillset off half-forward to great effect. Carlton's Answer to Bolton is he loves to burst inside 50, but has really looked to be a link-up with his midfield. Greatly improved his defensive craft this season, and will have some crafty on-ball time this week. One who could have a big game.
TDK has taken the reigns of No.1 Ruckman and looks set to kick on with the added responsibility. Probably a year too soon, but he has stood up and developed his game in front of the Fan's eyes weekly. Starting to become a KEY component in the defence down the wing, and also exits from d50. Expect him to drag Nank around the ground and use his agility to test him.
The Best Forward in the league without a doubt. Charlie combines power, strength and skill that few have in individual measure. Grimes looks set to visit him this week, and Charlie will be looking to take him deep inside 50 and peel off. Will fancy it if it's wet as he can match it with the Richmond smalls on the deck like he can in the air with the bigs.
Durdin Debut
An ok game at VFL, but Sam Durdin has pedigree, is strong 1 on 1 wise, and loves to push up the ground and take the intercept mark. He is the K-Mart Weiters, and will relish playing a similar role as Weiters and will have a great opportunity in his first game up to take some intercepts and showcase his bullet-like kick.
Conclusion
A game that if (when) Carlton wins it almost guarantees the top 4 at the end of the year. Carlton has been battered, has been bruised and they have been written off.
But they keep winning, and they keep, keeping on. Durdin gets his dream debut Thursday night under the bright lights. A system that holds up has brought 9 wins, Richmond looked ok at best last week, and with the Rain anticipated to fall on Thursday, Carlton will feel if they get their midfield dominance they can control the footy and control the tempo of the game.
Richmond is not to be under-estimated, Carlton has been their bunnies for almost a decade, and will not want to finish the bye rounds outside the8, and also with a double loss to the blues.
This game really is a 50-50 type of game. But I back our Blues to get the job done, and achieve yet another milestone for Voss and also another chance to stick it up the negativity around them.
Carlton by 8
