The Scout Report | Round 11 v Collingwood
Written by Dan Williams
Collingwood
Collingwood has probably played above pre-season predictions under new coach Craig McRae. Currently with a 5 wins 5 loss season.
They have displayed a real intent in their games this year. Looking to play a positive brand of football, and take the game to the opposition.
For all its flair though it is also a very tough outfit to break down, particularly at the contest. And they rank 2nd in the league for tackles but 5th in the least tackled. This is a pillar of "Flys' style of football from his VFL coaching days with Richmond.
One area perhaps of concern is they have shown (ranked 3rd for unforced errors) that in key moments of the game the high energy system can be exposed under duress. Losses to Dogs & Richmond showed that if you press them in their back half and take the shorter options away it becomes a slog for them.
But styles make fights and Carlton the most dominant possession side will play a side that looks to hit on the counter. It is a real Pep Philosophy versus a Fergie game.
Moore & The Transition Threat
One of the leading interceptors and rebounders in the comp. Darcy Moore is a threat to Carlton and one that has to be negated. Most people see his threat down back, but Carlton has ranked in the last 4 weeks in the top 2 for transition differential and Darcy's Role here is very understated.
whether down back or up the ground. His major strength is his ability to lead the forward into the contest and then peel off. This allows him to work in 2 ways. One either grab the intercept or 2 use his strong 1% game and to action a transition and force a turnover.
This is just not a skill that Darcy does alone. In this example, Maynard is acquitted to helping him. However down the back this season in the absence of recognised talls, this can be Howe, Maynard and even Quaynor at times. Who looks to help lead and dummy the contest allowing Darcy to be free. He has a no-nonsense approach and does simple things well. Here he wins the ground ball and suddenly the Pies are straight back on the offensive.
As is often the case with Darcy, A quick decision and the Pies are back with the ball. For Carlton, this is an area of concern in two ways. ONE Carlton likes to get the repeat entries and focus this on recycled scores. Playing one recognised Tall makes this 2 pronged attack of Moore/Howe a little easier for the Pies to implement. And TWO Carlton focus large parts of their exits and entries down the wings. This is where in exits against Moore and likes to oscillate. It will be a big job for TDK, Martin and co who occupy this role to stop which so far this year they have done successfully.
Moore & The Transition Threat - The Cure
Part of Carlton's improvement in the transition game is controlling the pace and being multidimensional in their exits. They have started to use lots of short sharp kicks and attack the fat side of the ground and from about half way look to turn it into the corridor with runners playing off tall targets like TDK.
A key cornerstone of this is the runs coming from midfield early in these exits. O'Brien here makes that run, and ahead of him, the players are looking to set up. Down the wide areas we see in the last couple of weeks this long kick to a tall is taken where O'Brien is now, unlike the Freo example if the ball is turned over, it isn't coming straight back in (from one kick) and it allows the Blues to get back and defend.
How this works effectively is that Carlton works in Trios when the pressure comes on. With dummy targets. Opening up behind for TDK, JSOS or Martin to have a good run and leap from away the contest. Notice From slide 2 to now how Motlop has created a leading lane for a run to receive the handball and this is where Carlton's tempo control is in full flight.
The handball comes to a runner and BANG Carlton look to go into 2nd gear. They have negated the defensive set up down wide, and now look to take the advantage moving at pace knowing opposition Talls have been in the hot zone of the exit. This is a common Carlton move to move into the corridor here. It is a misleading stat we do not use it (18th in the comp) as we often use the Corridor very late so the chain starts out wide.
Carlton’s Dominance In The Centre
Carlton has two points of attack when it comes to their much-published excellence in the centre and around stoppages. ONE they when losing the hitout come from deep which allows a mass pressure to be applied. TWO they are one of the lowest Kick to Handball sides in the comp in these avenues. Allowing them to cut open the midfield and get the ball moving quickly.
The Wings tend to pinch in from the bounce, and the two Wings and TDK have a role in this system to effectively do the opposite of a traditional wing and create space for running lanes. O'Brien this year often is one of the keys to this allowing a lane to open up from half back. Notice Walsh and Hewett in this example too. They often are the most defensive sided players, working off each other in handball chains but are also Carlton's best under pressure.
Outside of Brisbane, Carlton probably has the most dramatic shifts in Gears in the AFL. They tend to play it slow in possession but once avenues open up for runners they go. It is a common misconception that the midfield is one paced. It is a deliberate movement-based, When Carlton tends to overuse we see this controlled method can become an issue. But here in full flight, the method is simple yet deadly. Doc comes up with Saad on the other side and Carlton now has 8 in the midfield to play off. Notice Walsh is involved as a short option. The elite runners play behind the ball giving options. The 'Team' Defence and Offense are in full flight.
Carlton’s Dominance In The Centre - The Cure
Last week was a great warm-up for the Pies. In the wet, you have to keep the ball moving and STOP the ball moving. Their pressure was fantastic, particularly around the contest. One change was that Pendles had a lot more time and they used Taylor in a more defensive stopping role.
Taylor is very good at implementing pressure, and in a game style like Freo's who looks to move it short and away it caused havoc with their usual movement. I expect to see them float Daicos (both) and Pendles a lot more. This gives them some class to use the ball with. Carlton is very good against these stopping roles (GWS, Sydney) as they relish recycled stoppages. Pies simply have to get it away from here and cannot afford pressure to build.
Taylor and Crisp in this example work well together to gather the loose ball created from Taylor's pressure and move the ball onwards. Regardless of the weather at the weekend Pies will be looking to get the game going quickly. For a side that prides itself on tackle pressure, they will be looking to get it forward of centre and make Carlton play fast under duress.
Jordan De Goey
DeGoey is a threat all around the ground. But perhaps an area for Carlton to worry about this week. Is his work around Stoppages & Clearances. His ability to create separation is a danger for all sides. He did this to great effect in Round 2 vs Plowman last year.
Some simple bodywork from him creates a clear passage for him to work in. Players like him only need moments to do damage. He has an uncanny knack for finding space and his quick thinking without pressure can create simple scoring oppourtinties. He often from these positions finds an unmarked player in the pockets or looks for a runner. But he can turn and shoot very easily.
A routine snap for DeGoey equates to a Goal from nothing. If he is left unattended he can turn a game. This started a run for the Pies and he is very much a momentum player for the Pies like Dustin is for Richmond. If he gets the belief it is infectious. Someone Carlton will have to put some time into as he has multiple tricks up his sleeve to impact various moments around the ground.
Lochie O’Brien
One of the most understated areas of Lochie’s game this year is his game sense in defence. Often when Carlton enter 50 (one of the leading providors of this) Lochie drops back and oscilates in the holes from transition. Usually working around a Defensive Tall.
As you can see in this example he finds the space peeling into the no-man's land of the midfield and with his strong left foot he has the dangerous ability to penetrate a rebound inside 50 from range. Taking the wind out of the opposition's transition and generating a score launch.
This quick rebound inside 50 ability catches the opposition off guard. Predominantly the AFL sides look to quickly transition into their attacking phases. O’Brien has great variety with his kicks which allows him to hit up multiple targets by foot and drive the side quickly into an attacking position at range. If you look at the opposing wings Carlton look to enter early; down Lochies side and with hands and overlap on the other side. Lochie O’Brien and Co. Have consistently been ranked inside the top 5 wing combos this year by pure wing metrics.
RETURN OF DOW!!!
As fate would have it, Paddy has played a very similar (as stats show) role to Bam Bam in the VFL. While Kennedy brings grunt and consistency in recent years. Dow has that breakaway impact speed. One major improvement in Dow’s game this year has been his willingness to make himself available and to run direct lanes at stoppages. One real takeout this year in the VFL is his threat around stoppages and the way he draws space through his leading lanes. In a game versus a side like Pies which pride themselves on hard tackle numbers and killing space. Carlton is strong at taking contact and running on, I expect to see this being a game where Dow takes his chance, and in a midfield like Pies he could have Moses moments from Cripps and Hewett and really focus on what he does well and that takes the game to the opposition. This year every in for injury has caused a selection issue in terms of taking the opportunity, a man who many have traded already could have the final say!
Conclusion
Styles make fights so they say, and the back story to this one is something that makes a Hollywood blockbuster jealous. Former Lion’s Dynasty legends facing off. Battle of two proud clubs. Ledger squared! it has everything you could want in a fixture. Which begs the question “WHY IS IT ON A SUNDAY”.
Stylistically it is an epic battle, one side (Pies) likes to play on and get the game going, whereas Carlton enjoys a controlled game style with multiple layers and facets to its game. The midfield battle catches the eye. With both sides having injuries in key lines it is a real fair fight (in terms of any potential excuse).
That being said Carlton is simply too good on the lines, Before this year the Pies knew to stop Cripps stop Carlton, But with Hewett and Kennedy now allowing Cripps freedom around the ground, and the Addition of Martin to compliment the makeshift supporting cast of Charlie with Jsos and TDK and Cripps. Carlton simply is too big, too strong and too skilled.
The history of this game has been much discussed and the one thing the Blues have not done is put aside away, expect it to be this one with Voss giving a lesson to his former comrades in arms.
Carlton by 30+
