The Scout Report | Round 9 v GWS
Written by Dan Williams
GWS
For a side that has made finals in recent years more than it hasn't, this season has been a real culture shock for the 2019 Grand Finalists.
Currently the mirror of Carlton with a 2 wins 6 loss record, this afternoon they choose to dispense of long time coach Leon Cameron.
The final chapter in Cameron’s story will be a home tie with a side he has only lost to once (2017).
Will this be a final farewell with celebrations or will Carlton look to continue their quest at resetting the agenda? Only time will tell.
Tackle Pressure
GWS pride themselves on making it difficult - they play the percentages in their set-up in the terms of making you go to the harder areas and tackle and pressure hard. They are the number one tackling side in the comp, and this is the CORNERSTONE of their plan
As the ball hits the deck, GWS are very good at having one flyer, this enables them to have packs around the ground. Coniglio here has made one tackle and is already on his way to make the second. The swarm gathers forcing a rushed handball.
As the handball is given away, The ball carrier is nailed in a tackle. Now GWS outnumber very quickly and forces a groundball situation. This is an area that GWS are very good at forcing Territory kicks from their opposition as opposed to being able to play it on your terms.
The Deeper pressure from GWS (Usually they set up the way you are going as opposed to bring pressure from the rear) Forces the gaps in front of the ball carrier to naturally drop deep to help out. Meaning they needed to find space to get a kick. One handball too many and Boom they have the holding the ball call and an easy free kick for goal. This is a staple around the ground too, They tend to have only one flyer and 2 at the fall of the ball.
Tackle Pressure - The Cure
For the last two weeks, something noticeable has been building.
1) Carlton's stoppage and contested crew has been rotated heavily, allowing the midfield more running power. This has enabled them to effectively cluster up around the corridor and have less separation in moments of pressure.
2) Over 50 points have been scored via turnover in the last two weeks, using handball chains from these pressure areas. The long kick has become slowly a thing fazed out due to having wings that are good users, but also as the units are now closer together allowing quick handballs and to utilise Carlton have good numbers of players who ride tackles then release the ball later causing an outnumber ahead.
Here Newman shows footy smarts, by allowing the ball to bounce and then take possession in between the two crumbing forwards, holding onto the ball enough to have awareness his midfield is now in their attacking phase of transition. The smart handball over the top now gives Carlton an outnumber up the ground.
3 Quick Handballs and Carlton now look to hit the outside. Like most good teams (Particularly how we get hurt in years gone by) We look to attack the corridor, then spread the play to the wings (Stretching the Zones) and then hit a lead up.
Notice the key O word. OVERLAP. Carlton’s plan requires this overlap run. Against GWS this ability to take the contact and then go fast is paramount to how you can dissect a heavy tackling side. Geelong last week focus on the corridor more than most as their home ground is tiny in width, they focused on GWS tackle pressure to their advantage by slick movement and looking to go when the opportunity presents. It's very labour intensive in the GWS game plan. So Carlton's rotation, and their movement will be king to breaking the tackle threat.
The Lurking Forward
As a very handball centric side, GWS naturally look to pick holes around the contest and look for ways to hurt your zones around the ground.
They look to set up out wide, in the hands of Kelly and Whitfield for this very reason. Most Zonal Defences do not like being shifted from side to side. Like Port, they go horizontally generally from left to right. This then brings into play our WEAKEST area of Defence and their strength. Himmelberg! He will act as a target running out of 50 to be effectively the linkman. Causing a Tall to exit D50 and allowing Hogan to be a Target in the square, and their myriad of smalls to act as the pressure on the deck. Notice in this game Greene will often be looking to lurk in the pockets. But it all starts with Himmelberg's run.
This will be a common sight on Sunday, The Himmelberg Mark around the 60m point. With the Handball being their primary measure of moving the ball, it enables them to move in defence and attack as one large unit. Himmelberg will buy a bit of time, and then look to either plonk it on the square, or bottom right, you will see Greene will look to run to the square and then double back. Greene takes the majority of his goal-scoring opportunities from this movement.
The Lurking Forward - The Cure
Carlton has come up against this the last two weeks. One thing we have seen, is they have become very proficient at funnelling the opposition's ball movement to the fat side of the ground. Then their wing defence has worked with TDK and Doc becoming a pairing down that side (TDK has excellent mobility and has been deployed more outside 50 in case of turnover, and Doc has supreme ground ability) & Then playing 3 down the Back, with Weitering Hovering at CHB in our attacking phases and Young playing just in front.
Adelaide moves the ball similar in their attack to GWS, With Tex roaming hard up the ground to assist his midfield and buy them time to get forward. With two talls staying home this stopped his ability at going forward and back as he was constantly marked. With Boyd playing a hard tag on Rachele (similar in movement to Greene) This forced at all times to become a contest 1 on 1.
With Weitering acting like the back stop, it allows us to go backwards safely, and with our primary Wing Defence in transiton being TDK and JSOS/Martin with Doc, it meant we have tall timber and crumbers to help on the transition if we had to go long, but also notice the cluster in the corridor from that midfield group. Carlton have developed a very quick transitioning side that can defend and attack with little movement.
Braydon Preuss
Braydon is the modern-day ruckman in every sense of the work. Agile, strong and very good at his craft. However, he can be beaten! His ruck taps generally go to the side or behind. This allows them to focus on their strengths in Tackling and their ability then to either get some chains going and hit you hard or create a stoppage and protect their territory.
Here he wins the tap, however where as we see Gawn, Grundy, and TDK last week act as an auxiliary midfielder looking to block and allow his mid to get the ball one on one he often gets lost in where the Ruck is.
As The GWS player wins the ball at first, he is expecting a handball chain to go forward and stays static in case he is needed as a relief handball behind. This is Braydons's natural game time and time again. And often gets caught with Ruckman who are willing to use their foot speed to get to and from the contest. This is TDK bread and butter.
Can’t Stop Charlie
Aside from his exceptional marking ability. Charlie possesses a skill that few Forwards have in today's AFL for his side. Charlie can work as a small when the ball hits the deck. For years touted as a potential mid his ability to win his orown crumb has been shown a few times this season.
Because of this, we have seen at times Charlie is taken by 2 defenders, which has opened up McKay but more importantly has opened up Cripps or TDK when they lurk. It is very hard to plan a defence around a Player as COMPLETE as Charlie. Here he uses tremendous core strength to effectively bully his way out of trouble and create a split second opening.
That is all Charlie needs, and like Moses parting the seas, he slots one home from just in front. But what is interesting in this scene he had options to the right and the left. Charlie has McKays natural ability to draw players. But he generally draws a mid-sized defender to alleviate his skills on the deck. This is pivotal for Carlton to continue minus Harry.
The Harry Problem
Losing Harry is a disaster in some ways. However, Champions would see it as a test. So looking through the options on our list. One thing is paramount. Our entries in the last 3 weeks have become deeper but also require fewer touches to get them into the hot zones.
Over the last couple of weeks particularly we are seeing more purposeful kicks low and into the advantage of the leading player. Cripps, JSOS and the mids have popped up with goals being the one man out in the system. This will be king to getting through the 6 weeks
I would expect to see something along the lines of Plowman/Kemp in, allowing a rotation in Kemp's case up top and down back, but allowing young to continue working ruck down back, JSOS and TDK then centre and forward, and allowing the Kemp rotation to fill in for rests, you'd imagine we go Fogarty or Motlop (hope it's the latter) as last two weeks he's played exclusively high half-forward and towards the wing insane tackles numbers. And then rest on Marchbank maybe post-bye and Hewett back for Sydney, which then poses the question of playing Hewett for Newman, having the extra rotation down back (Hewett played 90% game time pre-round 12 for Sydney as a tagging defensive halfback) and having that additional rotation in-game that doesn't affect the structure. It's a knock no McKay but I'm not in the slightest bit concerned as Hansen and Voss the two people in charge of the forward structure are both from one tall system, and if we look at dogs and Richmond as a model which was loosely based from (port plan is a hybrid) a Motlop in allows us to have TDK and JSOS as floating talls with Cripps being the deployment (Boak, caddy, Bont) to cause chaos on preordained zonal systems.
The Possible In’s
Jesse has been playing a very High Half Forward role in the VFL. One thing that has stood out is he is Jack Martin, and operated down the flank and was deployed around stoppages as an onballer. Possessing great turns of pace and a strong engine he would be the exciting choice to replace Martin, particularly with his ability to bring players into the game but also his impressive tackling numbers.
Probably the bookies choice to replace Martin given his experience at senior level, and appears to be the man for the emergency situation. However he has been deployed almost exclusively on the ball. Which would be a change up from how Carlton have selected the players from VFL to AFL. But he is a steady performer, and brings the tackle pressure that Carlton will need in this game.
Been a bit of a liquorice allsorts at the VFL level, however, has embraced playing in the more Central position back down in defence. Showed some positive signs up forward particularly becoming a strong asset in marking out wide and setting up transition, but also showing this week and last he is a threat down back.
Was very impressive at the death of the game in the 4th and looked very at home in the limited game time he had. Offers a more direct movement into 50, particularly with him being deployed more up the ground. It would be a bold move, but one I think suits him as we saw VFL Cottrell looking to find the pockets and leads.
Conclusion
Carlton will not fear GWS, and as most of history suggest GWS wont fear us. However North and Adelaide are the perfect tune up fights for Carlton in this one. They will have to take the lessons learnt in them two fixtures, and no repeat what you did be tough to the ball, look to escapre the contest at pace, and play the width of the ground is the secret to beating GWS.
The way GWS move the ball allows Carlton oppotunities to hit them on the rebound, and with the Inside 50s becoming more purposeful and having a large porportion last week being rebound inside 50s, this plays into our smalls hands.
Carlton by 14
