The Scout Report | Round 7 v North Melbourne
Written by Dan Williams
North Melbourne
North comes into this game at rock bottom of the AFL ladder. A side that has been very vocal about themselves in a rebuild has demonstrated that in AFL 2022.
One thing that stands out aside from their win versus AFL basketcase West Coast Eagles, is despite their best efforts, they have more often and not gotten completely run over by the opposition.
The last few weeks in particular they have been guilty of horrendous unpressured errors, and although this is a sign of where they are at, it has come from more of the seasoned pros
That being said they have improved in the last two games their scores from stoppages and centre bounces, which will be required moving forward to stop being easy beats
The Ruck
North use their work around stoppages and centre bounces, to stifle and make it tight. Their set up is designed like most sides (us in 2018) to slow it down, and be very defensive. This is acheived by keeping everyone compact and players active running to the defensive side of the bounce (Jason Horne) you will see no.6 run back a lot in the game this week around stoppages
As you can see Jason Horne-Francis starts his run early, knowing the plan is to get numbers around the ball. Operation here is No Clean Ball first, Get the clearance second.
This method draws the free, you will see a lot of sides give up frees vs North, it either creates a stoppage, or you will see what happens in this example because of the scrappy nature, it requires discipline to play against
From exits out of stoppages, they look to use their tall timber. Goldstein floats prominently now in the Centre Half Forward Line, But they have a plethora of talls. With Xerri Out expect this role to be occupied by Thomas, and Zurhaar to lead hard from deep. They generally look to play quick from stoppages and centre clearances and look for the mark outside 50 to plow men forward and flood the zones.
The Ruck - The Cure
TDK rucks a little differently to Pittonet. Predominantly when he has rucked well, he looks to tap the ball behind him. Carlton plays Hewett (Not Available) But I expect Cerra to be this man in this game along with Kennedy. The aim here is Carlton has had success by buying a bit of time, Using Cripps and the Ruckman to give space for a handball and to set up the play.
Carlton are very fortunate to have a player of Cripps skillset. In this example he is horrifically outnumbers (similar to how North will set up) however his ability to take on 3 men while (Walsh leaves himself free) is key to how Carlton move the ball out of these pressure situations. Both Kennedy and Cerra will float in this role, both similar skills to Hewett.
Change of direction is king in AFL, and a quick little 360 spin or step sideways, allows Carlton to quickly transition. Cripps and Walsh are already in attacking phases allowing a quick movement out of the contest.
Open traffic awaits, With TDK off screen already offering himself for the handball. Carltons movement in Stoppages and Clearances is up there with the best in the League. Hewett is a major out. But his skillset can be replicated as its the Role that is important.
Defence Makes it Awkward
A side that has the most i50 against, is going to have a lot of rebound opportunities. But you must maximise this if you are Carlton. Our defence versus transition is much maligned and North possess the tools that can hurt Carlton if the pressure is not on point. They Achieve much of their work by Plowing numbers into contests, their isnt any easy ball if you bomb it in. They look to have 2 on 1s almost all around the defensive half.
Aerially they look to pressure every aerial contest. Versus Geelong and Sydney, although the weight of numbers took its toll, there were no easy marks. Often looking to stifle the contest and create and slow the game down so they can reset
Any indecision is met with resistance. It is important to note that North Melbourne require you to break their code down back. Bombing and Multiple aimless entries will not beat them. They are not like Eagles at the minute where you can just waltz in home. They do put up a fight and in the Sydney case they kept it tight long enough to be a problem. If you are looking at uncontested marks i50 it wont happen you have to meet their pressure to open the door.
Defence Makes it Awkward - The Cure
Something Carlton have struggled with this year is creating avenues at Goal that are multi faceted. At times it looks very one dimensional. As shown above the keys are high levels of movement.
Here Williams delivers the inboard kick to Doc who can run through the corridor. When Carlton has played well and looked dangerous is taking the mark outside 50, which opens up the angles for leads. This is imperative it is done this week.
When Carlton are outside 50, it allows them many options. In this case, a handball to a running Walsh allowed a short kick to Martin inside 50 and thus created a mismatch for Curnow. Carlton plays their best football when the delivery is controlled and set up from outside 50. When they play bad you will see this becomes either a bomb inside 50 or a hopefully kick and no pressure. Forwards have to be deep in this one and create opportunities for the smalls who will have to bring the heat.
The Larkey Memory
Larkey and Zurhaar are the Danger here, most people say Larkey destroyed Weitering, but the truth is the pseudo man on man and zone beat Weitering. Here watch Zurhaar's hands pointed to the pocket Lead and run through 3 zones which opens the space for Larkey.
Poor discipline from Plowman and no communication from the pair of Plow and Weiters causes Zurhaar to go unattended and as you see Weitering reacts to Plowman standing in no mans land and looks to firstly cut distance between the pair of Larkey and Zurhaar, and then quickly reacts to Larkeys movement to the pocket then the burst to the hot zone, This still exists today, as Jaidyn is back this week and will work the same role as 3 North players have crossed 4 Carlton defenders Zones.
Larkey is similar to Curnow, his ability to Burst away from a standing start makes him very hard to stop. He has exceptional marking ability too. This kick, in the end, could have gone two ways. Zurhaar in the pocket or Larkey and both were unattended at delivery. Carlton will have to make sure the Zones are working with full communication. It is the most efficient way to defend in today's game but requires communication if it doesn’t it is easy to break.
Transition Transition Transition
Weitering is under the microscope here again. He holds the key to Carlton's transition. We often talk about barometer players. Weiterings ball movement almost mirrors Carlton's scores from transition. When he goes safe it slows it down to a point the exit has to be shallow and slow, when he uses his beautiful kick quickly it is fast and dangerous.
The smart play would have been the kick to Full Forward and out that way, however, the movement forward had already begun to form a contest down the flank, When Carlton exit this way and it works, the kick will go to Left Half Back Flank and then up to Left-Wing allowing a deeper entry, this first kick though needs to be uncontested otherwise you are asking for repeat entries against. It is worth noting Carlton's 1 on 1 win % from a standard i50 against is one of the highest in the League, when it's a repeat entry though no defence in the world can stop them.
Ideally, this is where the kick goes for this type of exit, Now the contest is 50m plus further up the field. Allowing your defence to be set up in the event of a turnover, but also you have 2 more lines of defence. Notice in the example too (it stops after halftime) McKay is in the attacking 50. Carlton now has a direct avenue to goal from this contest. Which resulted in a score. Carlton's primary successes from transition are either the switch early and handball run out, or the switch to the corridor from here. This is our default method on show here and must be executed properly otherwise it is the easiest way to beat us. This is Weitering’s area of improvement, as the majority of our long bombs up shallow left field have come from Weiters slowing the game down, on the flip our transitions have come largely from his quick decision making.
The in’s
Two of Carlton's toughest competitors return this week. In the form of Jack Silvagni and Matthew Kennedy. Both bring in a way the intensity we lacked greatly last week. Jack's role down the flank is imperative to our ability to transition but also to have entries of value. His pinch-hitting in the Ruck too will be paramount to our success. Bam Bam relished the Hewett role in the rotation and will be looking to continue the fantastic form this week and should be a great match up in the middle versus North.
Liam Stocker & Jack Carroll
If ever there were two players you could bring in and say YES they fix Carlton's issues in transition then these are the blokes. Liam Stockers VFL form has been fantastic, with a real highlight is how he sets up transition and looks to turn defence into attack. Against a side like North who have not much else than heart, he will thrive in the contest and has consistently beat the bigger man from his pocket role.
Jack Carroll is a huge apple in my eye, has vision few players possess and his ability to look to cut inside and get into the corridor from the wide positons is sensational. A very direct player who has rotated out on the wing and on the ball he brings clean to use and hard overlap running to the side with fantastic ball use. He is Aldi Macrae.
Conclusion
Carlton should be going into this game as favourites regardless of our outs. The keys to victory are simple. Do what you do, move the ball quickly away from the stoppages and contests and look to enter 50 deep and with purpose. Carlton is playing a side that has struggled to keep up their cling on mentality for 4 quarters. Chances will come this is a game where they potentially could find a % booster, Transition score booster and develop a solid foundation for exiting d50 in one game.
They're are no gimmes in this game, but this is on Carlton to show their maturity and skillset and if they acquit to the task they will win this by 6 goals minimum.
Carlton by 38+
