The Scout Report | Round 5 v Port Adelaide
The Scout Report
Port Adelaide
Many people had Port in the top 8 come the season's end, but a combination of injuries and some questionable game plans has seen the lights switched off in the early rounds for the Power.
Dixon, Aliir, Wines etc have all missed games at the start of the year, and interestingly for a side that ranks top 10 for inside 50s and possessions inside 50, they are 17th in scores generated.
A side that has been built on playing an expansive style of transition football and being very direct has looked weak in the first rounds due to no target up top, and themselves now are looking to transition from favourites going into games to now clinging on.
But as the old saying goes be wary of the sleeping Bear, as Port will not keep getting beaten, and will be looking to bounce back starting with this week versus us. early rounds for the Power.
Dixon, Aliir, Wines etc have all missed games at the start of the year, and interestingly for a side that ranks top 10 for inside 50s and possessions inside 50 they are 17th in scores generated.
A side that has been built on playing an expansive style of transition football and being very direct has looked weak in the first rounds due to no target up top, and themselves now are looking to transition from favourites going into games to now clinging on.
But as the old saying goes be wary of the sleeping Bear, as Port will not keep getting beaten, and will be looking to bounce back starting with this week versus us.
Transition Threat
Although Port have been without Carlton Nemesis Aliir Aliir, they have shown their key cornerstone this year with their ability to quickly transition, scarily for Carlton the last two weeks their ability to take the opposition's final 3rd stoppages and generate scoring opportunities has been a highlight.
A Staple of this has been the cross-field ball, without Dixon, they have targeted the wide parts of inside 50, and used Mitch Georgiades, and Todd Marshall, to run from deep and create space in behind but also to pull the defence to the midfield.
Port has always been a side that enters 50 like this, and it creates a great angle as shown here to beat 2 on 1s with good leading and also good ball entry. But also creates indecision which is the major key point, as shown as the defenders react to the leads from the goal square, and the player running in can have an easy goal, from the entry they had 3 options, and what defences have to do is pressure the ball carrier, if not its easy goals, Port incidentally scored 10 goals with the same positioning versus Carlton last time out.
Easy goal here, as the defenders, have all reacted to the lead from Marshall, and Mitch who took the mark outside 50 can use his silky moves to waltz home and score.
Transition Threat – The Cure
Carlton's strength over the early part of the season has been their ability to lock down inside 50 with stoppages and generate scores, it is an interesting matchup, as Port traditionally are strong in these areas, Carlton will have to look to escape the contest centrally in the ground as Port rank 1 in clearances, and creating stoppages in the middle, however in the forward part of the ground, Durdin is KING to what Carlton must do.
Traditionally this year we have looked to almost punch any forward 50 to the front and left, where we load our side with our quicker scrappy players, Owies and Durdin, Hewett and Cerra traditionally have been in front of this contest and look to body and impact clearing space for a marauding Durdin (Like Touk Miller Last Week)
Hewett lays the bump and gets the ball into space, where Durdin looks to take on CJ and hits a direct run towards the ball, Straight lines in Footy can be deadly for players with this straight-line speed
An Easy Finish for Durdin, and an opportunity here for Carlton to look to be deep and aggressive in stoppages inside 50, something they were not last week vs Gold Coast, where we reacted to Touk and not impact.
i.50 Entries for Carlton – AVOID ALIIR
Carlton's best work is when we have Curnow and McKay intercepting their runs and looking to have the ball played DEEP! CJ is a great template in the first half on how you can alleviate his influence. Here Curnow Looks to Draw him into the pockets, and Owies dummy’s a run with him knowing he has the foot speed over Frost
The overlap here is the key phrase, Because Carlton has managed to get people overlapping the ball carrier, uncertainty is kicking in, and Owies has created major separation while Frost had his eye on the 2 Carlton players marauding to where the ball looks to be played Curnow (The Crumbers are coming)
Sicily and CJ feel for the trap, and an easy hit up mark is engaged, caused by McKay in the Goal Square and Curnow leading to his pocket. This is integral and where we will be looking at JSOS Owies and Martin to have the smarts to feed Infront of them, this works two ways, if Carlton doesn’t dummy the interceptors, they are AFRONT of the ball to impact and stop transition out of D.50.
In Transition Where It Falls Off for Carlton
Something Parks has worked extensively on in the preseason, is his ability to peel off, What Carlton has lacked, and bearing in mind we were tracking well with McGovern, is our ability to HURT sides in transition. Plowman is a pure defensive-minded player, and in a Voss system and a finals system, these players have to do more than just defend. Think of the 3rd bloke in defence like a Trent Alexander Arnold in Round Ball, yes, he can defend a bit, but his main skill is his ability to create attack from defence. In this example we see a typical goal against the seniors, a midfield turnover causing our Zone to be all over the show, and 1 on 1s inside 50. Notice unlike Plowman, Parks has eyes on the ball carrier, not his man as it's delivered.
Gold coast did their reading, as that left-hand pocket kick is the one that stiffs the VFL and AFL side, however, Parks almost dummied the forward to go with and peeled back and took a brave mark, this is stand out throughout the VFL this year as he has saved multiple goals often 2 vs 1 with his ability to read the mark, He has a natural Reading ability that is ELITE.
His other KEY development in VFL has been his vision, and in the last 3 weeks we have seen minus McGovern’s flat corridor kick and switch kick, we have been stagnant in this area. Parks here sets up a score launch seeing the right-hand channel (the way he’s facing) is flooded due to Gold Coast Intercepting this side streamed forward, by seeing this is knows the left channel is vacant and plays the smart pass setting up Carlton quickly to counter.
Escaping the Contest
Port will be without Lycett for this one, and although Hayes is raw, I expect we see the similar stoppage and centre set-up we saw post-Lycett injury last round. The aim here is different from Hayes to Witts, Both Lycett and Witts like to paddle the ball in front of them, hence the heavy lean that port play. Their aim here is to get the territory and get the ball moving, With Amon Rozee etc they know they have good foot speed and with Mitch up forward he is very quick. Their clearance aims to move your defence to react to the speed of their players.
The ball is paddled forward and from here Rozee's aim is any means necessary to get the ball moving forward, as you can see in the top half of the screen already, they are looking to go forward, and with Sam Powell Pepper lurking as the kind of stopper in case they lose it, it’s a very aggressive setup
Escaping the Contest – The Cure
George Hewett, I expect will have the job of stopping this and expect him to play in the Walsh positioning. What Hewett is incredible about doing, is tracking his man, Touk is the hardest player in the comp in these situations as he just beelines to the ball. Watch how he uses his body to win the contest.
A quick bump and his ability to pick it up in traffic is king. From here he naturally draws the players into the contest. I expect to see Pittonet use his bigger stronger frame to push the Ruck out, and this is how Carlton generates scores from Stoppages, Hewett’s ability now to u-turn in traffic, being in the purview of 3 mids, creates space for someone out the back, Both Walsh and TDK here can easily take the cheap ball and set up the attack
A Smart handball out the back and boom Carlton are away. When we have played well, this move is evident, and we should see it an awful lot around the stoppage work.
The in’s
Last two weeks something has been evident, Carlton can not escape centrally, and Carlton cannot find a way to organically score with no corridor. Now I hear the disdain in Newnes in Cottrell but let’s look at what they are doing in VFL, 2 things really, Width and Overlap. It is evident by all the facets of Voss's game plan that Overlapping and being part of multiple chains is king to the way he plays, hereafter an intercept from Parks. The ball comes to Cottrell and then to Newnes and look how far Cottrell has gone ahead of the play.
With players who have ranked top 10 in the AFL Ratings for Wingers (Based on 40% plus played in Cerra & Walsh), and the fact Carlton has the lowest changes to their CBA and Stoppage attendances, this could be pivotal in how we play, as we see Cottrell gets the lead quickly and has his second, Newnes was all over the ground, and I enclose their heat maps. Another key component of their games at this stage over O’Brien and Setterfield, is their average entry inside 50m has been further up the ground and Deeper, the area in which we get destroyed in-game from transition.
Matt Cottrell
He Has been deployed primary on the left wing, playing the O’Brien role, one highlight has been his improvement on his delivery, really impacting the final 3rd of the ground. So far in VFL 2022, he has avg 24.7 Disposals, 5.3 Marks, 2.7 Tackles, and 4.7 i50s with a goal a game.
Jack Newnes
The consummate swiss army knife in Jack Newnes has been deployed mainly on the right hand side, one key takeout from his time this year in the VFL is being a real problem-solving option. Been deployed to be a steady user in the event of breakdown of that side. Often switching to HFF or HBB to create an overlap option for his opposite winger. In VFL this year he has Averaged, 31 Disposals, 7.7 Marks, 2.7 Tackles and 4.7 i50s per game, combined with just under a goal a game, Both Cottrell and Newnes have shown their willingness to enter 50 running and launch the ball deep or take the game on themselves.
Conclusion
Beware of that wounded Bull, but Carlton has things to work on, and from the Bullish nature of Voss in the press conferences this week I expect a response.
Yes, Port is wounded, but without a Key Target inside forward, they have no displayed as of yet signs this can be rectified overnight. They say No Cripps, No Carlton, however, this week is a perfect opportunity to see Setterfield and Kennedy two blokes that have stepped up in his absence who failed last week, to right the wrongs and bully Port.
Port has the wood on Carlton and effectively has nothing to play for. But this is the ultimate test, everything the Press has panned the game plan on not having is now facing a side that struggles to even contain it. Big statements right or wrong on the selection table do make sense, they offer the natural width and overlap. And I expect to see the boys bring what they have learnt into the field of battle!
Carlton by 22 if all this is done correctly if do not be surprised for Port to bore this one out. Carlton does not want a territory contested battle here.
