The Scout Report | Round 13 v Essendon
Written by Dan Williams
Essendon
Essendon bucked the trend last year and snuck into the finals much to everyone's surprise.
This year however it has been a case of being humbled, and perhaps in somewhat of a surprise, they find themselves with just the 2 wins and 9 losses.
It has forced the bombers to call a public internal review, much like the Saints did a few years back and ourselves this year. This much muted off-field noise is probably much needed but as we have seen historically it only causes havoc on the field in such a long season.
Last year saw the side steamrolled its way into finals, with a heavy focus on domination in the centre (Darcy Parish) and a carpet bomb strategy inside 50, where they amassed on avg over 4 marks inside 50 per game in the back half that resulted in scores.
This year the dominance inside 50 is still there (2nd in the AFL for % of Marks taken from i50s) but that midfield dominance has gone. Another change is they have played nearly 60% in the back-half of the ground, looking to transition down the left-hand side of the ground, but this one-dimensional system has come unstuck as sides have taken control of the centre and are able to control where and how the ball moves.
Injuries have played a part, and the Bombers remain bullish Rutten is the man to take them forward. However unless something changes majorly, It looks like the issues run a lot closer to home than the backroom. As the system Rutten and Worsfold built as of 2022, is reminiscent of the last hours in Pompeii.
Coming Inside From Out Wide
You will notice in-game that the Bombers almost exclusively attack out wide and look to come inside 50 from almost the touchline. Stringer is expected to play this week, and we have been starved of seeing how it works with him this year, but generally, it works 2 ways, one notice the line (by the umpire just inside 50) this is working afront of the intended target, Wright is targetted the majority of all inside the 50s, he will come from deep, and Wright (dummy target) will come later from the side. They will push towards their support, and generally, it's a floated in kick.
As the kick is launched into the intended area, Phillips sets off early, and Wright (Dummy lead to pocket then back inside) hangs back, noticing the 2nd line of attack, which has started to get into place. As the 3rd line (midfield) outside and just inside is funnelling along already looking to block off any potential exit.
Notice that Wright has taken 2 Defenders who happened to spot the lateral movement thus making them appear second to the contest. This allowed Phillips to run directly at the ball almost unaided, This becomes even more problematic, when Draper rests forward and this week with Stringer who will also look to attach this side like Henry did working off Mason Cox and Darcy Cameron.
An easy mark is taken in the end from a lovely bit of training ground manoeuvres. But this can happen (remember they have the 2nd highest % of marks inside 50 from inside the 50s) Because of that wide set-up kick. It gives a lot of space to run in patterns from an obscure angle (Carlton uses this) opening up the angle plays into Essendon's strengths of strong grabbers, but not so quick tackling pressure forwards. If they are allowed to enter more centrally, your ability to transition using switches opens up.
Coming Inside From Out Wide - The Cure
A lot has been made of Weitering being out and how it's fundamentally a disaster... you know the doomsday stuff. But Carlton has played against the premium forward line-entry side in the competition this year minus Mr Jacob Weitering. Ironically we saw a very progressive side here looking for score launches in its back half due to necessity. McGovern in this game went from Trade him for Peanuts, to Trade Coup, Marchbank will come in (we will legit talk the hind legs of this later) but Carlton Deployed McDonald as a pure stopper, he looked to check the run of McDonald, And Young excelled at getting the spoil (his strength) by using his skillset to go with Brown.
With Marchbank coming in the aim will be to play free like McGovern, and Plowman will have a similar role with his skillset (if not more) to use his frame to effectively stem the run from deep and create separation for Young & McGovern to go to work on the aerial contest. Carlton likes to bring it down with Young and play it into the hands of Saad and Doc, this is super effective and a reason Carlton has had a massive leap in the last 5 weeks from scores from transition in the back half.
Young often looks for the spoil to his smaller guys, but with McDonald (Plowman in my prediction) stopping the other tall from entering the contest, it allows Marchbank (off-camera it was Boyd) to attack the contest from the side (watch the first qtr vs Richmond and see McGovern) When the ball hits the deck though, Carlton has been very potent, Saad here directly attacks the ground ball, almost anticipating it and looks to go the opposite end (switch) overlapping the oppositions forward press.
What will be a common theme is lateral running, it destroys lines and zones in the AFL, it is why Saad is one of the most effective players in the competition this year, leading the way with 14 score launches for Carlton this year. As you see he has taken off, managed to shift the Forward press, and found a kick on the opposite side of the entry and Carlton has an open field. This here with the combination of Marchbank and the knowledge of Essendon focusing all ball on the zone where Wright is gives them a huge edge, Essendon generally look to flood the hot zone with talls as a by-product of their skillsets and lack of mobility, Carlton can look to use this and the knowledge that the Bombers are bottom 4 for one on one aerial contents to their advantage.
Protecting the Wing
Generally, we see Essendon look to set up the attack and transition down the wide sides of the ground. It is a very direct method and gains ground fairly quickly.
Usually, here they look to target a Ruck to be the outlet ball, and then look for the short option with run and carry. This is fairly common in the AFL, but they utilise Draper and Phillips generally to have that mismatch but allowing them to have 2 tall deep targets inside 50 for the delivery.
Hind takes the handball and delivers it after some run to the edge of 50 out wide, as the first slide we discussed this is their preferred method of entry inside 50. This is a very common method for the Bombers making up over 65% of ball movement. This is a priority here from Carlton to look to defend but also to exploit.
Protecting the Wing - The Cure
Carlton has worked hard on not only controlling the tempo of football games with their dominance in possession, but also being able to defend the wide sides of the ground, and funnel attacks down the wide side to protect the corridor. Carlton can be caught centrally, but it is fraught with risk as they generally place two good spoiling players (often Newman or Martin) in the central position outside 50. But Carlton has also found a way to utilise TDK's exceptional aerial ability (Best at the club for 1on1 win %). He often lurks way off the contest, approaching late to gain the leap, and the smaller guys act as stoppers, they primary make it hard to attack the ball and make the running lane full of obstacles.
As the ball is delivered, Newnes & Cerra condense into the expected fall of the ball, slowing down anyone at the contest, this buys TDK time to come over the top of the Talls waiting to take the exit mark.
TDK works often with Doc as his almost follower in these situations, in this example, he is working behind the ball, but often you see Carlton (later in-game) hit the runner (Doc) with the handball, This has been a common method of scores, particularly from the other side (which will be attacked more) where the Third protects (Marchbank) who has operated usually with Saad (McGovern, Young, Plowman have had Saad as the follower) This is where Carlton can exploit with run and stun.
Nick Hind
Hate him or love him, Nick Hind is a vital pillar down the back for the Bombers and can exploit an area that Carlton does still struggle with this year, The ability to defend a kick & Corridor. His work rate is his strength, and this example here showcases why he is an issue for the Blues.
Only Saad has taken more bounces than Hind this year, and He often looks for the one-two and then overlaps into the midfield, this creates an outnumber and especially if they attack the corridor or look to switch, he has the vision to cut presses apart.
His work rate is really on show here, as when the kick goes forward, it is spoiled and Hind takes the ground ball. Takes 3 bounces and places it laces out in the chest of his forward for a goal. He is a real live wire, and someone who if he gets time and space can make something happen as he is super direct.
Adam Saad
Saad has had a real career year, and one understated part of his game is his defending, currently 2nd in Carlton's 1on1 win %. But he is known for his pace, and there is a reason. It is simply put Deadly. This example showcases how he can quickly turn defence into an attack. He attacks the ball very directly and is exceptionally clean. He often looks to retain possession first as opposed to clearing his lines. Which gives Carlton a great dimension in its exits.
He often moves very laterally, which opens up the angles for his kick, here he plays the one-two and you can see he is looking to attack space and make something happen.
After breaking the first line of defence, he handballs backwards, allowing a pressure less kick and Carlton look to transition this way. It is a real understated part of his game, how he works ahead of the ball after offloading and often makes very high IQ decisions with the ball.
The Return of MARCHBANK
People often forget just how good Caleb was and will be. Combining his 193cm frame with exceptional speed and an uncanny ability to create separation. Caleb has the potential to be the league's best 3rd man or a Key position player in his own right. Possessing a bullet-like foot too, if you built a player for Voss's system it would look like Caleb Marchbank. This example is poignant in this game, as it's what i expect to see him do, but also showcases how smart he is as a footballer.
As the deep target is occupied by a defender (Plow or Young in our predictions this week) Marchbank is smart and peels off his man to get in front of all parties and take a grab. Marchbanks's strength is not just his ability to read the flight or his pace. It is how quick he can think, the Brain always beats the foot. His ability to do this and as showcased the other week in VFL could add a huge dimension to Carlton's defence, And also free Weiters up to be his primary role of a stopper and allow Marchbank to be the transition threat. Carlton should he find form, on paper would have the most diverse back line in the AFL with Weitering, Young and Marchbank. It completely matches up with the 2021 Demons that was described as a generational backline of May, Petty and Lever.
Harry McKay
Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the world of sport, Play Essendon in 2022, have your strong one on one players aerially in the side. If you made a perfect footballer for this game then Harry would fit the bill. The method to exploit Essendons lack of ability 1 on 1 (Worst side in d50 for 1 on 1 win %) is to create isolation of your forwards. Carlton minus Harry has found ways to free up Charlie, but it is very difficult and results in loose entries as you try to work around a flooded square, but with Harry and Charlie their leading patterns complement each other, and the smalls have had multiple weeks to really master their craft, and if I was Essendon I would be concerned seeing this juggernaut run around.
Conclusion
Carlton has it all to play for here. a chance to have a 9 - 3 record, which would see them 80% of the way to finals and a return to the promised land of September.
They will have to be wary though as a much battered and bruised ego of Essendon awaits, on a big date in their history. But with the Queens weekend being here, the big stage on a Friday night. I expect Carlton to put on a show in this one and add onfield pain to the much-documented off-field pain the Bombers are experiencing.
This is a huge chance for Carlton to bully and punish a side that is going through something much the players at Carlton have felt first-hand. They have the stronger midfield with the fab 5, they have better forwards and they have a better system.
Carlton by 30 +
